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Daily Fantasy Football September 23: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

Chris RolingSep 23, 2015

The daily fantasy football stock market can be a fickle beast, which is no more apparent than with Week 3 of the NFL season on approach.

As a brief example, look at San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde, the hero of Week 1 with his 35.2-point outburst—he followed up this past weekend with 10.1 points, missing the second half of a 43-18 whipping at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Injuries have a major say on the stock market, too. Andre Ellington missed last week in Arizona, but this week marks the return of Pittsburgh's Le'Veon Bell.

Within, let's take a look at the most notable stock fluctuations as the week charges toward the next slate of games.

Stock Up: David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals ($4,000)

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In a rather quiet manner, Arizona's David Johnson posted a strong 12.5 points in Week 1. He followed up this past weekend with Ellington out of the picture by going for 17.5 by way of 42 yards and a score on just five attempts.

What damage it seems he could do if the coaches used him more...

Oh, they will? Well, all right. Mike Jurecki of Fox Sports 910 captured coach Bruce Arians' thoughts on the matter: “Each week it will increase a little bit. He had a nice eight-yard-per-carry average. Chris (Johnson) is still the starter and we will keep bringing him along. He will have a vital role every week, just how big we will wait and see.”

It's hard to imagine the Cardinals continue to lean on Chris Johnson in a big way. He's the owner of a 3.6 per-carry average on 30 attempts through two games, whereas it's quite clear David Johnson looks like one of the most explosive backs in the league.

At this price, it's impossible to ignore Johnson's continued production and role in Arizona.

Stock Down: Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys ($4,500)

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Talk about a double-whammy.

Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten has a nice price here, almost a full $3,000 off the pace of the position's costliest item, Rob Gronkowski.

The reasons are twofold. One, Tony Romo's sitting on injured reserve with a designation to return, per ESPN.com's Todd Archer.

Two, Witten himself got banged up in the same game, per Archer's colleague, Ed Werder, who tweeted: "Almost impossible to keep Jason Witten off field, but Cowboys TE 'not a lock' to play b/c two sprained ankles, sprained knee, per source."

It's Brandon Weeden time in Dallas (or Matt Cassel after a surprise Tuesday afternoon trade, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport), which wouldn't be so bad for Witten given the quarterback's need for a big, reliable target (oh, and Dez Bryant is out, too).

Instead, Witten looks like a must-avoid option for at least a week, all things considered.

Stock Up: Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons ($4,600)

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It's Devonta Freeman time in Atlanta.

Freeman has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry on 87 career attempts, but he's on the rise regardless thanks to Tevin Coleman going down with a cracked rib that will keep him out for a week or two, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Freeman took 12 carries last week and turned them into 15.9 points with 25 yards and a score. He looks like a volume-based workhorse in Week 3 against a sluggish Dallas defense considering it's just Terron Ward on the depth chart behind him.

The Cowboys defense has started strong against the rush, but only because the Philadelphia Eagles thought it was wise to attempt just 17 rushes in Week 2. Given the torrid state of the Dallas offense, Freeman figures to see plenty of chances in a game the Falcons can dictate the tempo.

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Stock Down: Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints ($7,100)

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Time to jump ship in New Orleans, folks.

The Saints look terrible through two games, posting just 19 points apiece in each and killing Brandin Cooks' fantasy value right alongside the team's NFC South chances.

Cooks posted 9.3 points on four grabs in Week 1 and followed with five receptions for 62 yards and 10.8 points. Next up is a road trip to Carolina, though, the hosts being a team that just held Houston's DeAndre Hopkins to five catches on 11 targets.

To make matters worse, Drew Brees suffered an injury this past weekend, which has his playing status as a "reasonable possibility," per Werder. Anyone who saw Brees' 24-of-38 effort for 255 yards with a touchdown and interception knows what to expect as he deals with the issue, a notion that only gets worse if Luke McCown gets the start instead.

At this price, owners could go get a Julian Edelman ($7,000) or Keenan Allen ($6,800) instead of hoping for the best in an offense yet to show any sign of life.

Stock Up: Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,200)

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Owners might scoff at the idea of Jacksonville's Allen Robinson.

It would make a bit of sense, too. Robinson went from 3.7 points to 36.5 in the span of a week, what most would flag as a fluke and move on down the list looking for consistency.

Except Robinson might be headed into consistent territory with the coaching staff using him the right way. Matt Harmon of NFL.com revealed on Twitter the issue after Week 1: "Charted 42.9 percent of Allen Robinson's Week 1 routes as go routes. Just doesn't add up with where he was successful last season. Not his game."

The Jaguars made the adjustment, and Robinson flourished. It's clear Robinson stands alone as the No. 1 wideout. Next up is New England, which allowed Antonio Brown to grab nine catches for 133 yards and a score in Week 1 before Robert Woods dusted the unit for three, 60 and one.

Robinson will see plenty of targets, and owners will want to take the leap of faith that suggests the coaching staff will continue to play to the young wideout's strengths.

Stock Down: DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,600)

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The above price isn't a mirage—last year's rushing champion sits below the $7,000 mark because he's rushed for 11 yards in two games.

As in, 11 yards in eight quarters. One yard more than a set of downs, once in two games.

Granted, Murray scored 18 points in Week 1 by way of a score on the ground and through the air, then followed with 10.5 points last weekend because he caught five passes for 53 yards (and rushed 13 times for two yards).

It gets worse. Next up for the Eagles is a date with the New York Jets, a team that just held Cleveland backs to 46 rushing yards in Week 1 and Indianapolis backs to 69 yards on Monday night.

Murray won't have room to operate against the unit, if he even receives adequate touches. There are better options in the same neighborhood, including C.J. Anderson ($6,200) and LeSean McCoy ($6,100).

Stock Up: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($5,800)

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Talk about a rebound for a guy some would say is too old or has somehow lost whatever in the world "it" is in the first place. 

Larry Fitzgerald posted a respectable 14.7 points in Week 1, affirming the above notions. Then he simply erupted against hapless Chicago, catching eight passes for 112 yards and three scores, good for a whopping 40.2 points.

Now, Fitzgerald won't flirt with such a number each week. But Ellington is out of the picture, and defenses seem to know to key on John Brown. Michael Floyd still isn't a factor, either, not after seeing just one target in Week 2.

Next up for Fitzgerald? The reeling 49ers, who let Pittsburgh's Brown run wild for nine grabs, 195 yards and a score.

As the main option in the passing offense, Fitzgerald is on a major rise that figures to even out and remain level, not dip. It's a combination of factors helping the proven fantasy superstar still has "it."

Pricing information and scoring data obtained from DraftKings.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus unless otherwise specified.

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