NFL Week 3 Picks: Latest Odds, Spreads and Updated Midweek Predictions

An important note for bettors diving into Week 3 picks—don't chase last week's results.

Last weekend was a wonky affair and entertaining to those without coin on the line. For those who did bet and plan to throw down more this week, it's important not to alter the overall outlook just because teams such as the Jacksonville Jaguars pulled the old rabbit out of the hat.

These things happen in the infancy of a season. It evens out to normal sooner rather than later as the talent gap and proper game film collide to bring things back in line.

With due diligence out of the way, let's take a broad look at the offerings from Las Vegas before zooming in on a trio of difficult Week 3 showdowns.

NFL Week 3 Odds 

Matchup	Spread	Predicted Winner
Washington vs. New York Giants	NYG -4	NYG 28-17
Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys	E	ATL 33-14
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans	N/A	IND 17-14
Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns	CLE -3.5	CLE 23-20
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens	BAL -2.5	CIN 24-14
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots	NE -14.5	NE 30-13
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers	CAR -3	CAR 24-23
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Jets	NYJ -2.5	NYJ 27-20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans	HOU -7	TB 17-10
San Diego Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings	MIN -1	SD 20-10
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. St. Louis Rams	E	PIT 28-20
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals	ARI -7	ARI 24-20
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins	MIA -2.5	MIA 27-24
Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks	SEA -16	SEA 36-24
Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions	N/A	DEN 20-17
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers	GB -7.5	GB 28-17

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.   

Analyzing Toughest Calls

Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns (-3.5)

This one would normally be tricky to figure out—except this time, it's for reasons one wouldn't expect.

In short, both the Oakland Raiders and Cleveland Browns look good coming off wins. The Raiders dropped a Week 1 contest with the Cincinnati Bengals but recovered with a thrilling 37-33 win against the Baltimore Ravens. Same story for Cleveland—Week 1 was a loss to the New York Jets, but the team followed with a 28-14 win against the Tennessee Titans.

This looks like a coin flip, but the notion might change depending on whom the Browns trot out under center. Remember, Josh McCown is on his way back from injury, but Johnny Manziel has looked good in relief. Tony Grossi of ESPN.com provided the latest:

"

#Browns will consider jumping Johnny Manziel ahead of Josh McCown at QB, based on Mike Pettine's comments.

— Tony Grossi (@TonyGrossi) September 21, 2015"

Manziel only attempted 15 passes against the Titans but found Travis Benjamin for two scores. The team plays ball-control offense well on the ground, which should concern Oakland on the road given the fact the defense allowed the Ravens to rush for 109 yards and a score on just 25 attempts last week.

When viewed through this lens, the home team emerging the victor makes sense. Oakland downed Baltimore last week because the coaching staff decided to have Joe Flacco throw it 45 times despite success on the ground.

At home, the Browns won't make the same mistake.

Prediction: Browns 23, Raiders 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans (-7)

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Before the season, one could have presumed this an easy pick.

After all, last year, the Houston Texans missed the postseason by a game, and this season would have a draft class and Jadeveon Clowney in the fold.

Instead, the best descriptor to slap on the Texans right now is "bumbling mess." The team lost in Week 1 to the Kansas City Chiefs because the defense allowed a trio of passing scores. Week 2 wasn't any better, as the team let Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton run wild and account for three total scores.

On the other hand, Tampa Bay exorcised its Week 1 demons by going down to New Orleans in a gritty NFC South battle and escaping with a 26-19 win. The defense looked great, sacking Drew Brees four times and holding the Saints to fewer than four yards per rush.

While there is an outside chance star running back Arian Foster will be able to return for the Texans on Sunday, per the Associated Press, it doesn't change the gaping issues under center after Ryan Mallett hardly averaged more than four yards per pass last week.

With the Tampa Bay defense playing at a high level against a quarterback like Brees and an underrated back like Mark Ingram, it figures to have an easier time against Mallett.

Look for the unit to take advantage of mistakes on the road while Jameis Winston leans on big targets such as Vincent Jackson (6'5", 230 lbs) and Mike Evans (6'5", 231 lbs). The Texans defense has looked like a shell of its former self, especially through the air against big-bodied targets.

Prediction: Buccaneers 17, Texans 10

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins always seem to provide quite the unpredictable matchup, almost as if the two sides constructed their rosters best in order to down each other, not the rest of the AFC East (meanwhile, the New York Jets aim at the New England Patriots).

Such is the reason for the above line. Of course, it doesn't help that both teams sit at 1-1. The Bills beat the Indianapolis Colts to start the season and then didn't have the juice to run with New England. Miami has looked shakier, starting the season with a win in Washington before an upset loss in Jacksonville.

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

It sounds like code red for the Dolphins, but the team does get to make its home debut this season against Buffalo, whereas the Bills are making their first road appearance of the year.

If there is a defense that can shut down Buffalo's versatile Tyrod Taylor, it figures to be Miami's—so long as Olivier Vernon doesn't get hit with an unnecessary roughness call like he did last week, which put the Jaguars into easy field-goal territory to win the game in the closing moments.

Taylor threw three picks last week to go with his three scores. The Dolphins are stronger than Buffalo's last two opponents on the outside and can contain the likes of Sammy Watkins, especially with Ndamukong Suh crashing down the middle of the field and ruining the timing of play. 

At home, look for the Dolphins to make the necessary adjustments to squeeze out a win, meaning more reliance on the ground game and a better approach on defense. With two weeks of tape to work with, the Dolphins can adapt and minimize Taylor's impact. 

Prediction: Dolphins 27, Bills 24

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of Sept. 22. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.