NFL Odds Week 2: Safest Picks Against the Spread This Weekend

The early weeks of the NFL season can be tricky to forecast, as we're still learning every team's identities and which teams are contenders and which teams are pretenders.

Still, last season offers clues. So too does last week. And it isn't terribly hard to spot the teams that should be great. 

Or those that will probably stink.

So with that in mind, let's break down three of the safest picks against the spread for Week 2.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Chicago Bears

The Bears have lost four games at home dating back to last year, folks. They are 2-8 in their last 10 home games. Jay Cutler, who averages over an interception per game and has thrown 31 interceptions in his last 27 games, faces a very talented Arizona defense that will pressure him constantly and look to create turnovers. 

Yes, the possibility of Andre Ellington missing this game to injury makes Arizona's offense less dynamic. But that isn't a huge issue against a Bears defense that just gave up 31 points to the Green Bay Packers and gave up 30 or more points to opponents seven times a year ago. 

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are a scary team with a healthy Carson Palmer. They are 7-0 with him in the lineup over the past two seasons and a mediocre 5-6 without him. It gets even better if you stretch the stats out further, per Rand Getlin of NFL.com:

Palmer is currently healthy, he was excellent in Week 1 against the New Orleans Saints (307 passing yards, three touchdowns) and he has his full complement of weapons in the passing game in Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown.

Detroit Lions (+3) at Minnesota Vikings

Alex Gallardo/Associated Press

I considered taking Miami (-6.5) over Jacksonville here, but Jacksonville's defense is improving and that contest could be a really tight affair. I'm not sure Miami wins that one by a touchdown or more on the road. 

So instead, I went with Detroit over Minnesota in a classic case of liking a team head-to-head, thereby making the pick against the spread the obvious selection. 

Look, I understand why some folks might disagree with this pick. Detroit is the road team against a division opponent. It screams "danger game."

Here's what doesn't scream danger game:

• Detroit is 3-1 against the Vikings in the past two years and 4-0 against this week's spread (the one loss was a 14-13 loss in Week 17 of the 2013 season). 
• The Vikings looked like a pretty poor team in a 20-3 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1. 
• The Lions looked far better in their Week 1 loss, though giving up a 21-3 lead and 30 straight points to the San Diego Chargers was concerning for the defense. However, Teddy Bridgewater is no Philip Rivers.

The danger for the Lions is Adrian Peterson waking up from his Week 1 slumber and going off. But the Lions were hurt through the air by San Diego (Rivers had 404 passing yards), not on the ground (the Chargers rushed the ball 30 times for just 95 yards). 

The Vikings, meanwhile, gave up 230 yards to the 49ers on the ground. If the Lions can control the line of scrimmage on both sides, soften up Minnesota's defense with Joique Bell and Ameer Abdullah and hit Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate over the top, it could be a long afternoon for the Vikings.

Baltimore Ravens (-6) at Oakland Raiders

Three road teams?

Yes, three road teams. 

Maybe the Raiders will put up a good fight in this contest, but it's really hard to pick them, even getting six points at home. And this pick is an even bigger no-brainer if Matt McGloin has to start for the injured Derek Carr, though it looks like Carr will start.

"I'm not 100 percent, but I'm close," Carr told Bill Williamson of ESPN.com. "It's all good."

Williamson added that Raiders coach Jack Del Rio said he "anticipates" Carr will play against the Ravens, but it's obviously worth monitoring.

Regardless, the Raiders just got pasted by the Cincinnati Bengals, 33-13. They were just 3-5 at home last year and lost by a touchdown or more in four of those games. The Ravens weren't great on the road last year, no, as they went 4-4 in those games.

But—and this is a big but— they were 4-1 away from home against teams that failed to make the playoffs.

Yes, that was last year. But those trends can at least give us an idea of how these teams tend to perform at home and on the road. 

There's also the small fact of the Ravens trying to avoid going 0-2 to start the season, which should provide a major motivational factor. Or that the Ravens are better in the trenches and should control this game by running the ball on offense and forcing the Raiders into obvious passing downs on defense. 

The Ravens are going to win this game by more than six points, folks. Anything less would be a pretty big surprise. 

All odds via OddsShark.com.