
6 Bold Predictions for Detroit Lions' Week 2 Matchup
Last week didn't go according to plan for the Detroit Lions.
Calvin Johnson was supposed to score two touchdowns and pour on at least 150 yards. That wasn't bold enough for some. Johnson finished with two catches.
We all knew Danny Woodhead would get his, but Melvin Gordon was supposed to fall victim to Detroit's superior tackling. The Lions finished with 12 missed tackles.
But this is a new day, and Sunday brings a new game. So why not click through for six new bold predictions?
Matthew Stafford Only Sacked Once...Again
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The Lions only gave up one sack last week. That now puts them on track to give up 29 less than last year.
That proves there's been serious improvement up front as well as showing you can make stats do anything you want.
But Stafford has been getting the ball out quicker. The difference is only one-tenth of a second between the 2.55 seconds from snap to throw against the Chargers and last year's average. Yet another one-tenth of a second could have avoided at least one interception last week.
The Vikings' top pass-rushers—Everson Griffen and Brian Robison—posted eight quarterback pressures but no sacks against the 49ers. Their help, namely Anthony Barr, has been underwhelming this season aside from Chad Greenway's sack, and the team missed 13 tackles.
All of the above screams for Detroit to get the ball out quickly to their playmakers and let them work. There will be more shots downfield this week, though technically one would qualify as "more." But Stafford will throw it away before forcing it or taking a sack.
Plus, it's one of the few predictions I got right last week, so that seemed reason enough to run it back.
Detroit Averages 5-Plus Yards Per Carry
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A large factor in the Matthew Stafford's protection will be the shorter third-down scenarios.
The Lions ran the ball well in San Diego from a yards-per-carry perspective. Yet they couldn't take advantage because untimely errors (i.e. poor blocks) didn't allow the offense to find a rhythm. And when you're not picking up a yardage consistently, your offense faces a lot of 3rd-and-8s or beyond.
That won't happen here because Minnesota gives up rushing yards at a league-worst clip. Yes, it was only one game, but it's also not that far of a drop from last year (eighth-worst).
Plus, Josh Katzenstein, the Lions beat writer from the Detroit News, said that starting guard Larry Warford "look[s] on track to play."
That immediately improves an offensive line that paved the way for 4.3 yards per carry last week, regardless of whether right tackle LaAdrian Waddle plays or not. It should be noted that Katzenstein thinks it's less likely than not that Waddle does play, per his cited article and the Wells Report.
Eric Ebron Leads Team in Touchdowns
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The two prior predictions directly translate to Eric Ebron leading the team with two touchdowns.
First, remember that Matthew Stafford was getting the ball out rather quickly. His completion percentage plummeted from 80 percent to just 25 when he held on to the ball past the 2.5-second breaking point.
Granted, longer passes are more difficult to complete, but that's still a horrendous split. Stafford should end the game on the positive side of the divide.
Also remember that Detroit will be moving the chains via land as well. That will force the linebackers to pay more attention to the running game, making them susceptible to play-action fakes.
If they bite, a pocket will open up between said backers and the safeties for Ebron to accelerate to and through once he has the ball. Plus, the linebacker will likely be Stafford's first read, making Ebron the first option.
That should be enough for the 10th overall pick from 2014 to triple his rookie touchdown number in only two games.
Defense Does Fine Against Adrian Peterson...
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The best way to gash the Lions' attacking scheme is to get upfield quickly.
Detroit's defensive linemen are trained to shoot off the ball. That creates instant holes depending on which ways the tackles are angled and which gap they pick, leaving Detroit exposed to quick hitters.
However, the Vikings have switched to a shotgun-heavy approach to help their quarterback. That doesn't allow Adrian Peterson to build up speed without the ball, instead allowing the defensive linemen to correct any mistakes and close the initial creases.
The deeper approach also gives the linebackers more time to react. Which, as we saw last week, might be time that Stephen Tulloch needs right now.
That's how Peterson was limited to just 31 yards and 3.1 yards per carry last week. Those numbers might change slightly, but his rushing total won't top 60, because Minnesota's offensive line isn't good enough to prevent the above scenario from playing out.
...But Not Against Teddy Bridgewater
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So why would the Vikings use the shotgun formation often if it neutralizes their best player? To give their quarterback a chance to steal that title from Peterson.
Bridgewater is at his best when he's making short-to-intermediate passes that require touch and finesse. He's a rhythm guy who can bring death by paper cut to any defense that sits off the line of scrimmage.
Unfortunately for the Lions, that's the exact scheme they used last week. The result was 404 yards for Philip Rives, 302 of those coming after the catch.
Kyle Meinke of Mlive Media Group determined that Rivers' average pass length in the air was 2.9 yards. That means he was throwing short passes with a quick rhythm, and that's exactly what Bridgewater needs to rack up three touchdowns in the Vikings' home opener.
Lions Still Win the Game
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Had Minnesota played last Monday like the team it was hyped to be all preseason, I'd go the other way here.
The Vikings defense was supposed to be fast and disciplined. This was supposed to be a Mike Zimmer team.
And I was one of the people buying hard into the Zimmer system in its second year. Although, to be fair, a lot of similar words have been spent on a certain team's presumed offensive improvement in a similar scenario.
That's where the difference here lies. Detroit still put up 28 points on the road and was derailed by a few key missed blocks. That's an improvement on last year's offense that scored in double figures in back-to-back road games last season.
If Warford plays—and especially if he's joined by Waddle—Detroit has the potential to put up a lot of points. Yet again, they might not play, and Detroit might fall short of last week's output.
That will actually be all right, since the Lions' 24 will still outpace Minnesota's 21.
All advanced stats, grades and positional rankings are courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
Brandon Alisoglu is a Detroit Lions Featured Columnist who has written about the Lions on multiple sites. He also co-hosts a Lions-centric podcast, Lions Central Radio. Yell at him on Twitter about how wrong he is @BrandonAlisoglu.
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