
Predicting Fantasy Football's Hottest Waiver-Wire Names of NFL Week 2
With this week's waiver-wire crop already consumed, which players after Week 2 will the fantasy marketplace be chasing en masse?
Last week, we thought Brandon Coleman merited more attention from fantasy investors. He delivered by playing more snaps than veteran peer Marques Colston while also earning his first NFL touchdown. The 6'6" red-zone threat can still be found for free in over 75 percent of ESPN leagues and would probably have also made this week's edition if I were feeling particularly lazy.
Luckily, I'm on my fourth cup of Game Pass highlights and ready to write about some unheralded and under-owned players primed to produce in Week 2. In order to focus on more under-the-radar assets, we'll only discuss players available in at least 50 percent of ESPN leagues.
Appreciating the opportunity a roster space offers can help spur managers to more aggressively pursue the combination of usage and upside when it presents itself. You can't acquire the next breakout waiver-wire wonder if you don't ever dip into free agency. In addition to season-shifting additions, we should also keep an eye out for helpful depth additions and potential flex assets along the way.
If you have some names you think are being undervalued on the market and are due for strong showings, please do share in the comments below.
David Johnson Is the Right Johnson to Own in Arizona
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Large and explosive, David Johnson's small-school status out of Northern Iowa pushed him into the sleeper class of tailback prospects in this year's draft.
While a respected injury prediction model accurately forecast Andre Ellington's extremely high potential to miss games to injury this season, as he'll miss multiple games with a PCL injury, an intriguing opportunity awaits Johnson.
For those not already aware of Johnson's big-play skills out of the backfield, consider that he took his one reception this past week for a memorable 55-yard score. Bleacher Report's scouting report on Johnson made note of the rookie's unique and diverse skill set, determining he has the potential to become a starter in the league.
"He has the speed to turn the corner on outside runs and can be a threat to accelerate away from the second level on inside runs. Johnson falls forward at the end of his runs and looks for contact in the open field, showing balance and power to pick up plenty of yards after first contact. He’s a downhill runner who hits his top gear fast. He is also an accomplished receiver with soft hands and good routes.
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Coach Bruce Arians is publicly touting veteran Chris Johnson as his lead back while Ellington is out, according to ESPN.com's Josh Weinfuss. Meanwhile, Arians was comfortable giving Ellington a healthy offensive share (56 targets and 118 carries) as a rookie in 2013 on his way to a brilliantly efficient first professional season.
Forgive me if this appears ageist on my part, but football is a young man's game. Chris Johnson is at the end of his professional spectrum and was a street free agent until late August after an uninspired 2014 for the Jets.
David Johnson is a physically imposing third-round pick who has proved awesomely efficient given a handful of professional touches so far. Give me the young kid with soft hands in an offense that allocates a heavy share of targets to its backfield.
If the younger Johnson can even approximate Ellington's target share (5.3 targets per game last season), he could develop point-per-reception flex appeal while Ellington mends. Given the potential for enduring value and a matchup with a Bears team that allowed 89 receptions to backs last season, I'm speculatively adding Johnson where possible (he's available still in 58 percent of ESPN leagues).
Can Cole Beasley Become a Sneaky PPR Weapon for Fantasy Teams?
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Most fantasy investors probably don't salivate over acquiring miniature receivers who rank in the first percentile in height and fourth in weight among positional draft prospects since 1999.
Cole Beasley isn't a big man, measuring just under 5'8" at his SMU pro day. Yet he could inherit a potentially big role on a Dallas Cowboys offense in flux after losing superstar wideout Dez Bryant.
Beasley's 74.5 percent catch rate (receptions per target) since the start of last season is third behind only Brandin Cooks and Jarvis Landry among active receivers with at least 50 targets in that span. Of this sure-handed trio, Beasley's 11.44 yards-per-reception average leads the bunch.
Tony Romo targeted Dez Bryant on 27 percent of his passes since 2013. Bryant also accounted for 31 percent of Romo's passing yards and 63 percent of his touchdowns. This isn't to suggest Beasley will replace the statistical void Bryant took with him, but there will undoubtedly be an increase in usage for the checkdown valve, something that shouldn't be lost on PPR investors.
Owned in less than 13 percent of ESPN leagues, a busy day facing the snap-happy Eagles could incite double-digit targets for Beasley, which, if we apply his stellar catch rate, could spell seven or eight receptions for Week 2. Call me crazy, but attention is attention in the NFL.
Top Draft Pick Eric Ebron Finally Ready to Become a Fantasy Factor
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The Lions' need for a capable third cog in the passing attack past their duo of top wideouts and not including their heavy reliance on pass-catching backs led them to heavily allocate draft resources in Eric Ebron, the 10th pick of the 2014 NFL draft.
Scouting reports praised Ebron's rare athleticism—he stands in the 89th percentile among tight end prospects since 1999 in the 40-yard dash—but drops and raw route skills kept him from seeing the field often as a rookie. Ebron played on just 50.6 percent of the Lions' snaps, per Pro Football Focus, and wasn't ever on the fantasy radar—even in daily fantasy play.
A strong Week 1 saw Ebron on the field for 64 percent of the Lions' offensive snaps, per PFF, as he earned a target on a respectable 19 percent of his routes run on the way to four receptions for 53 yards and a score in San Diego this past Sunday.
Usage for tight ends can prove fickle and frustrating, but in what will eventually prove to be a far higher volume passing game than what we saw in Week 1 (Lions had the ball for just over 21 minutes in the loss), Ebron's potential for a fifth of the team's targets could produce top-12 fantasy numbers at the position at the best price tag in fantasy: free in over 80 percent of ESPN leagues.
The Late Breakout: Ladarius Green Is Finally a Fun Fantasy Investment
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Listen here, I've been incorrectly predicting Ladarius Green's fantasy breakout before it was even cool.
Whenever Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham appear as physical comps for a tight end prospect, fantasy nerds take notice. And by take notice, I mean preemptively predict on-field success based largely on amazing measurables. Despite being regularly hyped as a late-round gem over the past two years, Green was just 47th among tight ends in fantasy points per game from 2013 to 2014 (using ESPN standard scoring).
It's only natural to want Green to find his production ceiling when you see him flash on film looking like a super-sized wideout and recognize his rare size/speed combo (6'6" with a 4.53-second 40-yard dash). With Antonio Gates suspended for the next three games, Green might finally begin to build the box scores we've long coveted.
Rostered in just less than 14 percent of ESPN leagues, Green scored the second-most fantasy points of his career in Week 1, hauling in five of his six targets for 74 yards and a score. With Gates' amazing red-zone share—Gates is fifth in the NFL in targets inside the 10 since 2013—available for consumption for the time being, Green should be starting in all fantasy formats at such a shallow and fickle tight end position.
Somehow, guys such as Owen Daniels and Larry Donnell are starting ahead of Green in standard fantasy leagues. Don't be one of those managers. Instead, add Green for a few clicks and start a player who could produce top-10 numbers at the position until Gates returns.
If Green can stay above the 15 percent target share of the San Diego passing game he earned in Week 1 over the next three weeks, the breakout, however short-lived, might finally be here.
Can Lance Dunbar Become the Shane Vereen of the Dallas Cowboys?
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Tony Romo completed all 12 of his passing attempts to running backs in Week 1 and leads the league in completion percentage to running backs since 2013 with an elite 87.4 rate.
Given the team's need to pass often, change-of-pace specialist Lance Dunbar was on the field for a higher percentage of the Cowboys' snaps in Week 1 (45.1 percent) than "feature back" Joseph Randle was (39.4 percent), per PFF.
Dunbar was targeted on 27.5 percent of his routes in Week 1 on the way to eight receptions for 70 yards, a sign that when he was on the field and deployed as a receiving option, he was netting a valuable share of Romo's attention.
With Dez Bryant sidelined for several weeks to come, a new-look Dallas offense will likely trend conservative and rely on a high-percentage, chain-moving passing scheme (thus our interest in Cole Beasley). Similarly to his teammate Beasley, Dunbar doesn't threaten to become a fantasy star, but throughout the long campaign busy PPR backs can certainly prove useful in many formats.
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