Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Normally, home-field advantage means something in the NFL, but lately, the Chicago Bears don't seem to realize this. Over their last 14 games at Soldier Field, the Bears are just 5-9 straight up and 4-9-1 against the spread. Chicago will try to please the home crowd when it hosts Arizona Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Cardinals opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.2-25.4 Cardinals

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

Arizona opened this season with a 31-19 victory at home over New Orleans, covering the spread as a two-point home favorite. The Cardinals scored on a Carson Palmer-to-John Brown touchdown pass five minutes into the game and never trailed, icing the win and the cover with a Palmer-to-David Johnson 55-yard scoring hookup with a minute-and-a-half to go.

On the day Arizona ran the ball for 120 yards, 38 more than last year's per-game average, while Palmer threw for 307 yards, with zero interceptions.

The Cardinals are now 17-6 SU and 12-4-1 ATS in games Palmer has started. They're also 8-8 SU and 11-5 ATS on the road over the last two seasons. This is a well-coached team, one to be reckoned with, and often a good bet.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

The Bears opened last week with a 31-23 loss at home to rival Green Bay, just missing the cover as six-point home dogs. Chicago, in its first game under new head coach John Fox, actually outplayed the Packers in the first half and took a 13-10 lead into the locker room.

The key play, though, came with about four minutes to go in the game. With the Bears driving for a potential tying score, Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthews intercepted quarterback Jay Cutler and returned the ball well into Chicago territory, setting up an insurance score for the Packers.

On the day, Chicago outgained Green Bay by 80 yards and ran for 189, as Matt Forte, in a more ground-oriented attack than the Bears ran the last couple of seasons, popped for 141.

If the Bears don't forget to feed Forte (they threw the ball four times in a row on a 1st-and-goal early in the fourth quarter last week and came up empty), limit the turnovers and tighten up the special teams, which allowed a couple of long kickoff returns, they could find themselves in the win column Sunday.

Smart pick

Arizona is a chic pick this season, but Fox might already have Chicago headed in the right direction. The Bears can win the ground battle in this game, and teams that outrushed their opponents in Week 1 went 9-5-1 ATS. The smart choice here is Chicago.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in six of the Cardinals' last seven games in September.

The Cardinals are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games as favorites.

The Bears are 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.