
2016 NFL Draft: Updated Prospect Radar Post-Week 1
There are two Monday Night Football games to be played, but the majority of Week 1 is already behind us. While most fanbases are still optimistic, there are some out there who are immediately looking at the upcoming draft class.
Yes, Raiders, Buccaneers, Browns and Jaguars fans, the first week of the season wasn't very much fun for you, but at least there's a glimmer of hope at the end of the tunnel. With college football one week ahead of the NFL, the majority of the cupcake games have passed. This is when the FCS nonconference opponents turned into FBS nonconference opponents for the majority of Power Five schools.
Who bounced back from a poor Week 1 performance? Who continued to sink or rise through September? There are answers to these questions in the form of pass-rushers, quarterbacks, defensive linemen and even a running back. There's a good chance that if you're frustrated with your franchise, it could add one of those early in the 2016 draft.
We'll break down who is hot and who is not, with updated draft projections.
Stock Up: Chris Wormley, DL, Michigan
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Junior Chris Wormley has a fairly similar story to the majority of college football players at Power Five schools. As a true freshman, he took a redshirt year. From there, he played as a reserve player, eventually landing in a part-time starting role as a redshirt sophomore. As a fourth-year junior, he's finally a full-time first-string player for the Michigan Wolverines.
In the preseason, former Wolverine Frank Clark looked like the most impactful defensive rookie in the NFL. Wormley just may end up being an even bigger surprise, though. As Dan Murphy of ESPN pointed out, after last week's matchup with the Oregon State Beavers in Ann Arbor, Wormley now has six tackles for loss on the season, the second most in the FBS. The only player ahead of him is Jordan Jenkins of Georgia, a senior outside linebacker who has been discussed as a potential first-round draft pick.
Listed at 6'5" and 300 pounds, it's not like Wormley has been beating up Division II programs, either. Michigan is in a full rebuild, but he's had individual success against Utah and Oregon State, who are formidable though not elite opponents.
He doesn't look the part of being 6'5", but he does more than enough to generate excitement as a 5-technique defensive lineman, typically labeled as a 3-4 defensive end. He also has a history of lining up as a 3-technique, typically labeled as a 4-3 under tackle.
He has hand skills, including an inside swim move, and a high motor. He's not going to be a first-round pick, but he's a young player who will stick to his assignment and exploit offenses when they miss their marks. Think of him like a smaller Henry Anderson, who made nine tackles, including three for loss, in his rookie debut on Sunday as a third-round pick.
Current Draft Projection: Third Round
Stock Up: Carl Nassib, Edge, Penn State
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There's not a lot to root for right now in State College, Pennsylvania. The sobriety of the post-Bill O'Brien era is exposing how truly difficult it is to compete in major college football without an elite coach when the residual effects of scholarship restriction still loom on the squad.
The Nittany Lions have managed to lose to in-state Temple 10-27 and win against Buffalo, a non-Power Five school, 27-14. Big deal. The one shining hope for the school may not be quarterback Christian Hackenberg, who was tabbed as a potential NFL franchise savior during his freshman year with O'Brien, but a pass-rusher.
Carl Nassib is a redshirt senior who was on the NFL's radar heading into the season. When the Senior Bowl, the top postseason all-star game, dropped its watch list, Nassib's name was featured as a defensive end. Still, he was a player with potential and little to show for it statistically. He's listed on the school site at 6'7" and 272 pounds, but he didn't see the field until his redshirt sophomore season, and he has two sacks on his resume for two campaigns when he saw time before 2015.
If his last name rings a bell, you're catching on. He's the brother of New York Giants backup passer Ryan Nassib, who was once a "potential first-round quarterback" after rumors linked him to the Buffalo Bills, where his head coach from Syracuse had accepted a job, per Syracuse.com's . The younger Nassib has had no such success with the media hyping him, though. Instead, he was a walk-on at Penn State before earning a scholarship.
Against Buffalo, Nassib made three sacks and also got his hands on an interception. This was just a week after making 10 tackles in the season opener. He now ranks second in the FBS in sacks with four and is ranked fifth in the FBS in tackles for loss with 5.5, combining for plays of the loss of 62 yards. If he's able to wipe off 31 yards per game for the entire season, we're talking about a top-50 pick here.
I'll pump the breaks some until Nassib plays an offensive line that should be able to match him toe-to-toe, such as Ohio State's on October 17th, but he's making enough plays already to keep an eye on him in lesser matchups.
Current Draft Projection: Fourth Round
Stock Down: Jeremy Johnson, QB, Auburn
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Height, weight and speed only matter so much. This is what we've learned from watching Jeremy Johnson for the first two weeks of the college football season. The Auburn quarterback was supposed to be Cam Newton. He's 6'5" and 240 pounds with breakaway speed. He was supposed to be Gus Malzahn's next big project.
Unfortunately, Tigers fans learned the hard way that after a senior passer graduates, even if the backup has a solid pedigree, there's a reason why he was a backup. They are now longing for the days of Nick Marshall, who is now a cornerback for the Jacksonville Jaguars after going undrafted this past draft class.
Against Louisville in Week 1, Johnson went 11-of-21 with a passer rating of 94.3 and a completion percentage of 52.4. In Week 2, those numbers rose to 135.7 and 65.6, but his performance was against Jacksonville State, an FCS team. Against it, he had two atrocious interceptions.
The first came in the second quarter when the Tigers were down four points. He somehow managed to not only underthrow a pass but throw it into double coverage. The second interception came midway through the fourth quarter, when he again underthrew a target, this time in a tied game, giving Jacksonville State the ball around midfield.
The No. 1 thing a quarterback must do in the NFL is protect the football. The second objective on the list is to throw accurate balls in the intermediate portion of the field. Johnson hasn't been able to do either two games in. According to ESPN's Stats & Info, Johnson's five interceptions are the most heading into Week 3 by an SEC passer since Jonathan Crompton's efforts in 2009.
At this point, Johnson looks a lot more like Logan Thomas, a second-year NFL player who has been cut twice in September, than Newton. He has a long way to go before an NFL franchise spends a draft choice on his raw talent.
Current Draft Projection: Undrafted
Stock Up: Jordan Jenkins, Edge, Georgia
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The strength of the University of Georgia defense is its pass-rushing unit. It has two potential first-round picks in senior Jordan Jenkins and junior Leonard Floyd. Both could have declared for last season's draft class and gone in the top 100 picks. Behind them is future stud Lorenzo Carter.
In the team's first SEC game of the year, the Bulldogs faced Vanderbilt in Nashville. Jenkins went off, totaling 11 tackles and posting two sacks. He is now up to three sacks on the year, tied for the sixth most in the FBS and second in the SEC behind Texas A&M's Daeshon Hall.
Pass rushing has always been Jordan's strength, though. His issue, at a listed 253 pounds, was being enough of a run-stopper to hold his own as a 4-3 defensive end prospect rather than a "Sam" linebacker. Now Vanderbilt isn't the best squad in the SEC, but he still managed to notch an amazing 5.5 tackles for loss in the ground game, which should earn him the SEC Defensive Player of the Week honor.
Because of his effort on Saturday, he now leads the FBS in tackles for loss. With that performance against Vanderbilt alone, he would rank fourth, an impressive feat when considering the fact that he's doing it against a fellow SEC squad, while others, such as Charles Harris of Missouri, are battling schools such as Southeast Missouri State and Arkansas State.
Jenkins' one-game flash doesn't mean he's a surefire top-10 pick, but the fact that he's making such great strides in the run game is a huge positive. No one accidentally puts numbers like that up while being horrible on the ground. If it were that easy to dominate in the SEC, it would happen more often.
Jenkins is an athletic player who can use some more weight to hold him down at the point of attack, but when he's penetrating, he's one of the best edge defenders in the country.
Current Draft Projection: First Round
Stock Down: Kemoko Turay, Edge, Rutgers
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Despite being a redshirt sophomore, Kemoko Turay is one of the most watched pass-rushers in the potential 2016 draft class. Turay has an interesting background. He didn't play football until late in his high school career, as basketball was his first love. As a 3-star recruit, per 247Sports, he signed with Rutgers, where he redshirted in 2013 but played in a rotational role in 2014.
As a 6'6", 240-pounder, he was named to the Freshman All-America Team. He didn't start a single game, but he was able to notch 7.5 sacks for the year. Turay's 2015 opened against Norkfolk State, a game off the radar for most, even those thirsty for Week 1 action. This past weekend against Washington State was the first test of the squad's season.
The previous week, the Cougars had lost at home to Portland State, an FCS program that went 3-9 in 2014 and was headed by first-time head coach Bruce Barnum. Over and over, the Scarlet Knights were just waiting for Turay to make a play, and he did a few times but not nearly consistently enough.
He's now a starter, but for as much as he's being rotated out in run situations, he may as well still be playing the same role as in 2014. At the end of the game, too, he had a poor stretch.
He continued to crash the outside lane while the right tackle sold himself outside, which led to Turay running himself out of the play. The space created on the left of the right tackle, the B-gap, is where Washington State Luke Falk decided to run because of the bailing pass-rusher, resulting in a 13-yard rush, finally coming down on the 8-yard line.
Between plays, Turay couldn't get off the field fast enough before the ball was snapped, leading to a penalty that would be declined since Falk threw the ball into the end zone, knowing the worst-case scenario on the play involved him cashing in on Turay's mistake.
Overall, he looks like the inexperienced player he is on paper. He's as athletic as anyone can be, but at least when players such as Ziggy Ansah were hit with criticism, they had really only played one real season of the sport. Including his high school career, this will be Turay's fourth year of significant playing time. He will need to put it together if he's going to declare this cycle.
Current Draft Projection: Third Round
Stock Up: Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio State
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Braxton Miller has had one of the more interesting collegiate careers in recent memory. He was not once but twice the Offensive Player of the Year for the Big Ten. As a quarterback, he was heading into his senior season as one of the top passers in the country. Late in August, though, he aggravated his shoulder, leading to a redshirt season.
In his place in 2014, J.T. Barrett, a freshman, was named to the first-team All-Big Ten by both the coaches and the media. When Barrett went down with an injury against rival Michigan, a virtual unknown, Cardale Jones, took over. Jones won the Big Ten Championship against Wisconsin, the Sugar Bowl against Alabama and the CFB National Championship against Oregon in his three starts.
Because of the depth of the quarterback position heading into 2015, Miller moved to a flex receiver/running back role. Two weeks in, against Virginia Tech and Hawaii, Miller has posted five receptions for 95 yards and 13 rushing attempts for 118 yards, taking in a score both in the air and on the ground.
Some efforts can't be measured in the box score, though. His highlight-worthy spin move in Week 1 couldn't have happened without it being sprung by running back Ezekiel Elliott. Against Hawaii last Saturday, he returned the favor, knocking down two defenders on special teams to free up Jalin Marshall.
The fact that he's learning the nuance to positions and putting an unselfish, largely unnoticed effort on tape is going to help his stock down the line. Miller is a little quarterback, a little running back and a little receiver as it stands today. If he can prove that he can create plays without the ball in his hands, teams such as the Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals will take a long look at the former passer.
Current Draft Projection: Fourth Round
Stock Down: Vernon Adams, QB, Oregon
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Vernon Adams has had a difficult time transitioning to FBS football. Sure, he had put up solid performances against the likes of Washington and Oregon State while at Eastern Washington, but those were the biggest games of the year for the Eagles, while they were speed bumps for the other squads. For example, the Ducks, Adams' new squad, played the Eagles in Week 1 and were 35-point favorites, according to Odds Shark.
That was just the very loose warm-up before the Ducks faced off with the Michigan State Spartans in Week 2, a team that would have been in the playoff conversation had Oregon not beaten it 46-27 in Eugene in 2014. Ranked fifth to Oregon's seventh, the Spartans pulled away with a 31-28 victory that felt like a double-digit win.
A large part of that rests on the shoulders of Adams, who hesitated to pull the ball on inside zone plays, forcing Royce Freeman and company to run into the teeth of a loaded defense over and over. The result? Oregon averaged 2.9 yards per carry on the night.
In the air, he only completed 56.4 percent of his throws and tossed two turnovers. His raw QBR was 39.5 against Michigan State. Now, you'd think that an injury to his index knuckle on his throwing hand would be a big issue, but he also did poorly on the ground, as when he did pull it, he took 14 rushing attempts for the grand total of six yards.
Adams looks like a slot receiver and throws like a possible convert, but the playmaking ability displayed over the first two games of the season really puts his future at the next level in doubt. His quarterbacking against Michigan State might have been the worst of any Oregon Duck since the UCLA game in 2007 post-Dennis Dixon, when three passers went 11-of-39 and threw three interceptions while being ranked in the top 10.
Current Draft Projection: Undrafted
Stock Up: Jared Goff, QB, California
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NFL franchises might have a real issue finding a savior quarterback in the 2016 draft class. There have only been a couple of impressive passing performances two weeks into the season, and Christian Hackenberg at Penn State, once tabbed as a top prospect before Bill O'Brien left for the Texans, continues to short-circuit.
One passer who has lived up to the hype, though, is Jared Goff of California. He's certainly not Aaron Rodgers—regardless of how easy (cough, lazy, cough) it would be to make the comparison because they both went to the same school. They aren't nearly the same quarterback.
Goff started at California as a true freshman who had the frame of a high school freshman. At times, he looked his age. Still, he had the greatest progression of any passer between the 2013 and 2014 seasons.
Take his pair of games against Oregon for example. In 2013, he was benched early in an Oregon game that featured sloppy turnovers and plenty of rain. By 2014, he was more efficient, finishing the year with a passer rating over 20 points higher than in 2013. He kept throwing accurate passes through pressure versus the Ducks, despite the fact that the Golden Bears were scores behind.
In 2014, his efficiency improved. Heading into 2015, his biggest question was his arm. He's only played Grambling State and San Diego State (neither is a powerhouse), but arm talent is being shown this fall that wasn't there last season.
John Middlekauff, a former NFL scout now employed at Comcast SportsNet Authentic, noted one throw in particular on Saturday against San Diego State: Tied 7-7, Goff threw the ball around the 25-yard line and got hit, but he nailed his pass to the opposite 40-yard line, a 35-yard pass with zip. Those are the passes that make top-10 picks.
If Goff declares a season early, he just might be the top pick of the draft, with teams such as the Washington Redskins and Cleveland Browns salivating.
Current Draft Projection: First Round
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