NFL Week 1 Picks: Prop Bets, Vegas Lines, over-Under Predictions and Advice

The wait has been excruciating, and the summer has inched forward slowly, but the gradual color-turning of the leaves means the NFL regular season is finally upon us. The 2015 edition kicks off with a Week 1 slate that gets right down to business.

Right away, folks will see Tom Brady and the New England Patriots aiming to get their Super Bowl defense off to an ideal start at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Thursday's inaugural 2015 NFL contest. But that's only a slight appetizer for the first Sunday slate, which pegs seven games at the 1 p.m. ET slot and five mid-afternoon contests.

We've all been waiting long enough, so let's dive right into lines and predictions for all of Week 1.

NFL Odds and Picks for Week 1

Game	Line	Over/Under	ATS and O/U Prediction
Pittsburgh at New England	NE (-7)	52	New England; Over
Indianapolis at Buffalo	Ind. (-3)	46	Indianapolis; Over
Green Bay at Chicago	GB (-6.5)	49.5	Green Bay; Over
Kansas City at Houston	Hou. (-1)	41	Houston; Under
Carolina at Jacksonville	Car. (-3)	41.5	Carolina; Under
Cleveland at NY Jets	NYJ (-3)	40	New York Jets; Under
Seattle at St. Louis	Sea. (-4)	40.5	Seattle; Over
Miami at Washington	Mia. (-4)	43.5	Miami; Under
New Orleans at Arizona	Ariz. (-2.5)	48.5	Arizona; Over
Detroit at San Diego	SD (-3)	46	San Diego; Over
Baltimore at Denver	Den. (-4.5)	49	Denver; Over
Cincinnati at Oakland	Cin. (-3)	43.5	Oakland; Under
Tennessee at Tampa Bay	TB (-3)	41	Tennessee; Under
NY Giants at Dallas	Dal. (-6)	51.5	Dallas; Over
Philadelphia at Atlanta	Phil. (-3)	55	Philadelphia; Over
Minnesota at San Francisco	Min. (-3)	41.5	Minnesota; Under

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark, last updated Sept. 9 at 11 a.m. ET.

Season Props

AFC Team	Odds	NFC Team	Odds
Indianapolis Colts	3-1	Green Bay Packers	13-4
New England Patriots	15-4	Seattle Seahawks	13-4
Denver Broncos	6-1	Philadelphia Eagles	17-4
Baltimore Ravens	10-1	Dallas Cowboys	8-1
Pittsburgh Steelers	10-1	Minnesota Vikings	14-1
Miami Dolphins	12-1	Arizona Cardinals	20-1
Kansas City Chiefs	16-1	Detroit Lions	20-1
San Diego Chargers	18-1	Atlanta Falcons	22-1
Buffalo Bills	20-1	New Orleans Saints	22-1
Cincinnati Bengals	20-1	New York Giants	25-1
Houston Texans	22-1	Carolina Panthers	25-1
New York Jets	40-1	San Francisco 49ers	33-1
Oakland Raiders	40-1	St. Louis Rams	33-1
Cleveland Browns	50-1	Chicago Bears	40-1
Tennessee Titans	75-1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	50-1
Jacksonville Jaguars	75-1	Washington Redskins	66-1

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos

Could it be that Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos are being overlooked heading into the 2015 season? Perhaps there is some projecting going on that the offense won't be at the level it's been over the last three years, but it's largely unfounded.

Performances like the divisional round flame-out against the Colts lead some to wonder if Manning is past his best, but the regular-season dynamo has still looked ageless through the season campaign. He's at a wealth of weapons with Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Owen Daniels running routes for him alongside some young speed in the backfield.

Manning is 3-of-3 in season openers at Mile High, and the last time it came against the Ravens in 2013, he torched them for seven touchdowns en route to his record-breaking season. Baltimore's pass defense hasn't gotten any better, ranking in the bottom 10 in yards conceded last year. 

Even if Manning can't put up a half-dozen touchdowns like in that contest, a much-improved defense behind the lead of Wade Phillips and a dangerous pass rush will fluster Joe Flacco all game, as Louis Riddick of ESPN noted:

The Ravens themselves are short on offensive firepower, with first-round wide receiver Breshad Perriman doubtful for the season opener, per ESPN.com's Jamison Hensley. Baltimore will need explosion on the perimeter to nullify that quick pass rush, and Steve Smith Sr. won't be able to do it on his own—though he will give it a shot.

When it comes down to it, the Broncos are being disrespected, with Odds Shark giving them the third-best odds out of the AFC and a recent fall to No. 8 on NFL.com's power rankings.

Nobody will be overlooking them after a high-scoring Week 1 drubbing.

Prediction: Broncos 34, Ravens 20

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Personnel change over the offseason is something both of these NFC East rivals have gotten accustomed to entering the 2015 season. Whether the change turns out to be good or bad usually takes some time to figure out.

Central to the Dallas Cowboys' Super Bowl chances is how the team responds to the loss of DeMarco Murray, the NFL's leading rusher a season ago who crossed enemy lines and joined the Philadelphia Eagles. Losing the league's best workhorse from 2014 could have a diminishing impact, although the Cowboys' burly offensive line and high-powered offense lead one to believe they'll be just fine.

It's no surprise the Dallas brass feels the same way, as Clarence Hill of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram noted:

The way the Cowboys' Week 1 slate sets up, they should expect to pound the rock against one of the league's worst run defenses. The Giants gave up 2,162 yards last season, third-worst in the NFL, and the 4.9 yards per attempt they gave up was dead last.

New York has enough formidability on the edge to keep Tony Romo under wraps, although the run game should open that up. He threw for seven touchdowns in two meetings with the Giants last season, each of which the Cowboys ran the ball with ease.

The Cowboys can easily cover and hit the over if they make it their mission on defense to keep Odell Beckham Jr. from winning the game by himself.

Prediction: Cowboys 38, Giants 24

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It's not often a meeting between two teams with a combined four wins last season offers one of the most intriguing Week 1 matchups. But it's also not often both the No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks are quarterbacks taking a personal rivalry into the next stage of their careers.

Of course, both Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston have taken the reigns of starting quarterback for their respective squads by now. Each has a large sample size of preseason reps under his belt, and both are well-accustomed to one another after a college showdown and the draft season, but it's not a one-on-one matchup by any means, as Mariota told 247Sports' Terry McCormick:

It's way too early to say which quarterback will be better in the long run, but Mariota looks more equipped for initial success—or at least less struggles. He's much quicker at evading pressure and getting the ball released, critical components for a young quarterback in front of a subpar line.

James Kenney/Associated Press

Neither team is very well put together in the trenches offensively, while both have some impact players on the defensive line—Gerald McCoy for Tampa Bay, Jurrell Casey for Tennessee. With two quarterbacks desperate to take care of the ball, a low-scoring contest will come down to who can run the ball best.

Despite how strong Doug Martin has looked in the preseason, his offensive line won't be able to help him out against the Titans' big bodies, and Tennessee's young backs will find a way to win it.

Prediction: Titans 14, Bucs 10