Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections: Season-Opening Stat Predictions for Top 100

Fantasy...football...is...finally...here. Get hype!

The wait is over. The summer is coming to a close. Football is upon us. Fantasy football begins on Thursday. It's all happening!

So it's time to start rolling out the fantasy projections for the top players in Week 1. Blast the air horns, guys, because it's time to go.

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Aaron Rodgers	Green Bay Packers	Chicago Bears	25
2	Matt Ryan	Atlanta Falcons	Philadelphia Eagles	22
3	Tom Brady	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	20
4	Tony Romo	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	20
5	Peyton Manning	Denver Broncos	Baltimore Ravens	19
6	Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers	New England Patriots	18
7	Matthew Stafford	Detroit Lions	San Diego Chargers	18
8	Andrew Luck	Indianapolis Colts	Buffalo Bills	17
9	Cam Newton	Carolina Panthers	Jacksonville Jaguars	16
10	Drew Brees	New Orleans Saints	Arizona Cardinals	15

Because we head into the regular season with more unknowns than knowns, the majority of the Week 1 projections will be a combination of three factors:

1. Preseason rankings and expectations.
2. A player's proven track record (or lack thereof).
3. The expected quality of the defense being played.

For all of those reasons, Aaron Rodgers is the obvious pick to top the Week 1 projections. He's the best quarterback in the NFL, and he absolutely toasted the Chicago Bears last season, throwing for 607 yards, 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in his two meetings against them. 

Losing Jordy Nelson for the season will hurt over the course of the year, yes, but you could give Rodgers a wideout corps comprised of peewee players and he would still torch the Bears.

The player who will challenge him for fantasy MVP this season, Andrew Luck, has a much tougher matchup against a good Buffalo Bills defense. The Bills led the league with 54 sacks last year and have one of the better defensive lines in the league. And now they have the very aggressive Rex Ryan calling the shots.

Luck will post some solid numbers, sure, but don't expect him to carry your team this week.

One game that should be fun for fantasy owners is the Pittsburgh Steelers going up against the New England Patriots. Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady should both have very nice showings for owners, with Brady likely to light up the Pittsburgh pass defense after his crazy offseason.

Finally, Tony Romo should have a big week for owners against a pretty porous New York Giants defense. Romo threw for 554 yards and seven touchdowns last season, with just an interception and a fumble in two contests, so he's a great bet to light them up again this year, especially without DeMarco Murray and a reliable run game to lean on.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	DeMarco Murray	Philadelphia Eagles	Atlanta Falcons	20
2	Eddie Lacy	Green Bay Packers	Chicago Bears	18
3	Adrian Peterson	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	17
4	LeSean McCoy	Buffalo Bills	Indianapolis Colts	16
5	Matt Forte	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	16
6	Jeremy Hill	Cincinnati Bengals	Oakland Raiders	15
7	Lamar Miller	Miami Dolphins	Washington	14
8	Mark Ingram	New Orleans Saints	Arizona Cardinals	14
9	Jamaal Charles	Kansas City Chiefs	Houston Texans	13
10	Marshawn Lynch	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	13
11	C.J. Anderson	Denver Broncos	Baltimore Ravens	12
12	Alfred Morris	Washington	Miami Dolphins	11
13	Carlos Hyde	San Francisco 49ers	Minnesota Vikings	11
14	Melvin Gordon	San Diego Chargers	Detroit Lions	10
15	Frank Gore	Indianapolis Colts	Buffalo Bills	10
16	Andre Ellington	Arizona Cardinals	New Orleans Saints	9
17	Jonathan Stewart	Carolina Panthers	Jacksonville Jaguars	9
18	Justin Forsett	Baltimore Ravens	Denver Broncos	9
19	T.J. Yeldon	Jacksonville Jaguars	Carolina Panthers	9
20	Latavius Murray	Oakland Raiders	Cincinnati Bengals	8
21	Rashad Jennings	New York Giants	Dallas Cowboys	8
22	Joseph Randle	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	8
23	Joique Bell	Detroit Lions	San Diego Chargers	8
24	Chris Ivory	New York Jets	Cleveland Browns	7
25	Alfred Blue	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	7
26	Isaiah Crowell	Cleveland Browns	New York Jets	7
27	Doug Martin	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	7
28	DeAngelo Williams	Pittsburgh Steelers	New England Patriots	6
29	Giovani Bernard	Cincinnati Bengals	Oakland Raiders	5
30	Tre Mason	St. Louis Rams	Seattle Seahawks	5

DeMarco Murray is going to lose carries to Ryan Mathews this season and give up touches to Darren Sproles. He'll likely have at least 100 less carries in Philadelphia's balanced offense this season than he had with Dallas last year and will probably concede some fantasy points from a year ago, too.

But in Week 1, against an Atlanta defense that gave up 20.6 fantasy points to opposing running backs last season in ESPN standard-scoring leagues, he should absolutely tear it up and be the top player in fantasy to start the season. 

Beyond that, trust your studs, bad matchup or not. There simply isn't enough depth at running back to sit your top options just because the matchup isn't great. 

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Antonio Brown	Pittsburgh Steelers	New England Patriots	20
2	Dez Bryant	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	19
3	Julio Jones	Atlanta Falcons	Philadelphia Eagles	18
4	Odell Beckham Jr.	New York Giants	Dallas Cowboys	17
5	A.J. Green	Cincinnati Bengals	Oakland Raiders	15
6	Randall Cobb	Green Bay Packers	Chicago Bears	15
7	Demaryius Thomas	Denver Broncos	Baltimore Ravens	14
8	Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions	San Diego Chargers	14
9	Alshon Jeffery	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	13
10	Mike Evans	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	12
11	T.Y. Hilton	Indianapolis Colts	Buffalo Bills	11
12	Emmanuel Sanders	Denver Broncos	Baltimore Ravens	10
13	DeAndre Hopkins	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	10
14	DeSean Jackson	Washington	Miami Dolphins	9
15	Jeremy Maclin	Kansas City Chiefs	Houston Texans	9
16	Golden Tate	Detroit Lions	San Diego Chargers	8
17	Jordan Matthews	Philadelphia Eagles	Atlanta Falcons	8
18	Brandin Cooks	New Orleans Saints	Arizona Cardinals	8
19	Sammy Watkins	Buffalo Bills	Indianapolis Colts	8
20	Brandon Marshall	New York Jets	Cleveland Browns	7
21	Mike Wallace	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	7
22	Keenan Allen	San Diego Chargers	Detroit Lions	7
23	Vincent Jackson	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	7
24	Jarvis Landry	Miami Dolphins	Washington	7
25	Julian Edelman	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	7
26	Amari Cooper	Oakland Raiders	Cincinnati Bengals	6
27	Torrey Smith	San Francisco 49ers	Minnesota Vikings	6
28	Steve Smith	Baltimore Ravens	Denver Broncos	6
29	Michael Floyd	Arizona Cardinals	New Orleans Saints	5
30	Davante Adams	Green Bay Packers	Chicago Bears	5

There are a lot of question marks at wide receiver, with Michael Floyd, Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffery, Emmanuel Sanders and Mike Evans, among others, all having injury concerns to start the season. Add in the season-ending injuries to Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin, and the deepest position in fantasy starts the season in flux. 

Ah, but the depth is real at wideout, and you'll be just fine at the position if you drafted well. There's no reason to believe the top stars at the position such as Antonio Brown or Dez Bryant are due for a down year, so start them with confidence to start the year.

Look for potential shootouts like the Eagles taking on the Falcons for a slew of receivers who could blow up. Julio Jones and Jordan Matthews are the obvious choices, but Nelson Agholor and Roddy White are sleepers worth keeping an eye on as well.

Ditto for the Cowboys playing the Giants, where Bryant and Odell Beckham Jr. will post huge numbers, but Victor Cruz and Terrance Williams could also post solid numbers as deeper sleepers at the position.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Rob Gronkowski	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	15
2	Jimmy Graham	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	13
3	Greg Olsen	Carolina Panthers	Jacksonville Jaguars	11
4	Martellus Bennett	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	10
5	Travis Kelce	Kansas City Chiefs	Houston Texans	9
6	Zach Ertz	Philadelphia Eagles	Atlanta Falcons	8
7	Jason Witten	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	7
8	Dwayne Allen	Indianapolis Colts	Buffalo Bills	7
9	Jordan Cameron	Miami Dolphins	Washington	7
10	Delanie Walker	Tennessee Titans	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6

Like running backs, tight end is a position where you have to trust your stud. It's generally harder to determine which defenses are built to stop tight ends, especially since the top options at the position generally transcend matchups and produce points against any defense.

So in Week 1, go with your preseason rankings when judging the position. Besides, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are going to be atop these projections all season long anyway.

Defense/Special Teams

Rank	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	15
2	New York Jets	Cleveland Browns	14
3	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	12
4	Miami Dolphins	Washington	12
5	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	11
6	Kansas City Chiefs	Houston Texans	10
7	Denver Broncos	Baltimore Ravens	9
8	Carolina Panthers	Jacksonville Jaguars	9
9	St. Louis Rams	Seattle Seahawks	8
10	Detroit Lions	San Diego Chargers	8

I love the New York Jets this season under the aggressive Todd Bowles with their quality defensive line and the upgrades they made to the secondary. The matchup against the Cleveland Browns should be a heck of a way to open the season.

Outside of the Seattle Seahawks twisting Nick Foles in knots, the Jets are a contender to finish atop the rankings after Week 1.

Kickers

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent	Proj. Points
1	Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	15
2	Adam Vinatieri	Indianapolis Colts	Buffalo Bills	13
3	Cody Parkey	Philadelphia Eagles	Atlanta Falcons	12
4	Steven Hauschka	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	11
5	Justin Tucker	Baltimore Ravens	Denver Broncos	10
6	Matt Prater	Detroit Lions	San Diego Chargers	10
7	Brandon McManus	Denver Broncos	Baltimore Ravens	9
8	Matt Bryant	Atlanta Falcons	Philadelphia Eagles	9
9	Dan Bailey	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	8
10	Josh Scobee	Pittsburgh Steelers	New England Patriots	8

Pick a kicker you trust and roll with him to start Week 1. There isn't really a magical formula for picking a quality kicker beyond finding a consistent player on a good offense.