Examining the Depressing and Disappointing Patrick Kane Trade Talk

Few things speak more powerfully to the myopia of professional sports than the fact that the rape investigation involving Patrick Kane has triggered massive interest in trading for the star forward while he is potentially attainable in a deal.

In a piece Tuesday, Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times revealed that no fewer than five different NHL clubs not only thought about trading for a player under investigation for such a serious offence, but had actually gone so far as to contact the Chicago Blackhawks after the news broke:

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At least five teams contacted the Hawks once the Buffalo News first reported the investigation—which involves Kane and a woman at his Hamburg home—and said they’d be willing trade partners should the Hawks decide to cut ties with their superstar winger, according to a league source. The 26-year-old is entering the first year of a record-setting eight-year, $84-million contract.

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On a moral level, that kind of interest is both baffling and deeply disappointing. It speaks to a hockey culture so invested in winning games that multiple managers treat a rape investigation as a buying opportunity.

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But on a certain cynical level, these managers are right. Life is not a Disney movie. The teams boasting the 23 purest hearts in hockey don’t automatically win the Stanley Cup every year. The Blackhawks and the Los Angeles Kings have been hockey’s most successful franchises over the past half-decade, and both have been rocked recently by serious criminal allegations involving key players in their title wins.

Lazerus posits that if the Blackhawks were to go down the trade road, they would “get a massive haul in return.” Others have argued with that, including Allan Muir of Sports Illustrated:

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A “massive” return is debatable. Even in the absence of charges being filed, Kane’s history of bad judgment is like heavy mileage on the odometer. So is the fact that he is entering the first year of that cap-squeezing contract, which also has a full no-movement clause … That said, the Hawks may decide that getting 75 cents on the dollar is preferable to suffering further damage to a brand that is one of the most admired in not just in the NHL, but all of North American sports.

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In any trade, under any circumstances, it’s likely that the Blackhawks would get back less than full value for Kane. There’s an old Conn Smythe quote about how a manager can trade five ordinary players for a great player, because one can always find ordinary players. It’s especially true in a salary cap world. Kane’s value on the ice is such that it’s unrealistic to expect the Hawks’ return to match his value in a deal sending him away.

It’s not clear, however, that the circumstances involved here are going to crater Kane’s trade value. So much interest being expressed so quickly indicates that Chicago will not lack for potential trade partners. It also suggests that he’s still going to have a lot of value. As Muir himself puts it:

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[F]rom a practical position, it only makes sense that other GMs would pick up the phone. After all, the time to buy is when a player’s value is low. It doesn’t mean that there’s a deal to be made, but to do anything less than inquire about the availability of a game-breaking player who hasn’t yet been charged and who might not be guilty of anything is a dereliction of duty.

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The emphasis is Muir’s, and it’s hard to think that other general managers wouldn’t be lulled in by the same wishful thinking. After all, if a team could land a talent like Kane for something similar to the return commanded by Tyler Seguin, and the investigation ultimately just went away, how much better would they be on the ice?

The uncertainty of that investigation will undoubtedly hurt Kane’s trade value somewhat, so he's not likely to fetch quite the same level of return. Seguin (along with Rich Peverley) commanded a four-player package, including a first-line wing (Loui Eriksson was one year removed from a 71-point season), a good young second liner in Reilly Smith and two solid prospects. 

At the end of the day, there are likely to be plenty of general managers willing to trade something like a good, young second-line winger, a top prospect and a first-round pick for the Chicago star, with the price potentially even going higher than that. It's just a move with so much potential to pay off on the ice.

Off the ice is another issue entirely, of course, and the reason we're discussing the possibility of a trade at all. A lot of teams will likely be happy to steer clear, and under the circumstances it will be hard to argue with those who make that choice. Or with Chicago, for that matter, if the Blackhawks do pull the trigger on a trade.