Fantasy Football 2015: Ranking This Year's Crop of Rookie RBs

Outside of Cincinnati’s Jeremy Hill, last year’s group of rookie running backs didn’t storm the NFL quite like the group of rookie receivers did. However, this year’s crop is already making noise.

In the 2014 NFL draft, no running backs were selected in the first round, but in the 2015 NFL draft, two running backs—Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon—went in the first half of the first round. That’s when the chatter about this year’s group began.

And it has only picked up steam since then. Some—such as Ameer Abdullah—have stolen the show this preseason, while others—such as Gurley, Gordon, T.J. Yeldon and Tevin Coleman—are in line to lead an NFL backfield immediately.

It looks like rookie running backs will be a fixture in fantasy lineups this season, so I’ve crunched the numbers to rank the top 12 rookie running backs in terms of what you can expect from them on the (fantasy) field this season.

The rankings assume a points-per-reception (PPR) league, but I'll note whether a player would be more or less valuable in standard leagues, so this article applies to all formats.

No. 12: Javorius Allen, Baltimore Ravens

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Javorius “Buck” Allen is a great name to know in dynasty leagues, but he’s buried behind Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro on Baltimore’s depth chart heading into 2015.

Additionally, Allen didn’t do himself any favors in the team’s third preseason game by fumbling the ball near the goal line.

"You have to hold onto the football," Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said following the game, according to Jamison Henley of ESPN.com. "It’s just not possible to put runners out there that fumble the football. He’s going to have other opportunities and chances going forward, and I really believe he’s going to be a very good player. But, he’s going to have to learn from that.”

2015 projection: 32 carries, 145 yards, 1 touchdown; 10 receptions, 80 yards

No. 11: Jeremy Langford, Chicago Bears

Sam Riche/Associated Press

Like Allen, Langford is discussed more in dynasty circles than among the redraft community, as some believe he’ll be the starting running back for the Chicago Bears as early as 2016.

But Matt Forte is still in town this season, and he figures to be just as much of a workhorse as ever. Forte has topped 1,000 rushing yards in three straight seasons while averaging about 267 carries per season. He also caught a whopping 102 passes last year for 808 yards.

It’s improbable that Forte will catch 100-plus passes again—and his totes may slip as he nears 30 (his birthday is in December)—but that doesn’t mean Chicago’s offense will stop flowing through him.

So long as Forte is healthy and capable, the Bears will feed him the ball, which means Langford has little to no fantasy value this season outside of serving as a Forte handcuff. If Forte misses time, Langford steps into a favorable situation, but this forecast isn't projecting injuries.

2015 projection: 52 carries, 239 yards, 1 touchdown; 5 receptions, 45 yards

No. 10: David Cobb, Tennessee Titans

David Goldman/Associated Press

David Cobb’s value rests in the potential that he can ultimately become the starting running back for the Tennessee Titans. It doesn’t appear he has done enough to earn that spot yet, however, so his ranking suffers as a result.

He outplayed Bishop Sankey in the team’s first preseason game—carrying the ball 11 times for 53 yards compared to Sankey’s eight carries for 15 yards—but was then outdone by Sankey in the second preseason game of the season.

Cobb then missed the third preseason game with a calf injury and is now week to week, per Titans reporter Jim Wyatt.

So Cobb failed to separate himself from the incumbent Sankey and is now injured, which gives Sankey a chance to secure his position while Cobb waits to heal. It appears that Cobb is now looking at a best-case scenario of a timeshare with Sankey and a worst-case scenario of serving as the second-year player's backup.

Add in the fact that the Titans could find themselves in negative game-flow situations (i.e. losing) more often than not, and things aren’t looking great for Cobb’s rookie campaign.

He’s still worth owning in dynasty leagues and is worth a flier toward the end of the drafts this season, given the possibility of his usurping Sankey; however, his ceiling isn’t too high, and fantasy players shouldn’t be hoping for much.

2015 projection: 88 carries, 350 yards, 2 touchdowns; 10 receptions, 70 yards

No. 9: Cameron Artis-Payne, Carolina Panthers

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Cameron Artis-Payne is tucked behind Jonathan Stewart on Carolina’s depth chart, but Stewart’s injury history and Carolina’s penchant for running the ball make the rookie an intriguing player.

As previously noted, however, we aren’t projecting injuries here, so Artis-Payne’s spot on these rankings assume he plays the full season as Stewart’s backup. Just know that the upside is there.

The Panthers ran the ball 42 percent of the time last season, 24th most in the league, according to data from Pro Football Focus. Even when losing, the Panthers stick to the ground, carrying the ball 33 percent of the time (23rd in the NFL).

Artis-Payne has averaged 4.0 yards per carry so far this preseason—racking up 72 yards on 18 carries—and is certainly worth handcuffing Stewart with.

2015 projection: 88 carries, 353 yards, 2 touchdowns; 15 receptions, 113 yards, 1 touchdown

No. 8: David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

David Johnson finds himself in a crowded backfield with the Cardinals, as the rookie is joined by Andre Ellington and the recently signed Chris Johnson.

The Cardinals backfield is lining up to be a hodgepodge that will likely see Ellington being spelled by either C. Johnson or D. Johnson—or both, depending on the situation—which makes it a difficult situation to predict.

In the team’s latest preseason game, Johnson was most impressive through the air. He caught four passes for 40 yards and a touchdown. On the ground, however, he lost two yards on four carries.

If these rankings assumed standard leagues, Johnson would be leapfrogged by Artis-Payne. But Johnson figures to work his way into Arizona’s passing game from time to time and should rack up a couple of catches per game.

2015 projection: 76 carries, 304 yards, 2 touchdowns; 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 touchdown

No. 7: Matt Jones, Washington Redskins

Gail Burton/Associated Press

Alfred Morris is still the man in Washington, but he’s never been much of a pass-catcher.

That’s where Jones can find a home as a rookie.

Over the past two seasons with the Washington Redskins, Roy Helu (now on the Oakland Raiders) caught a total of 73 passes. If Jones assumes the post that Helu manned, he could be in line for 35-50 receptions this season. We’ll be conservative and say he notches 40 receptions.

The fantasy community has become enamored with Jones. This tweet from ESPN’s Matthew Berry says it all:

"

The more I see of Matt Jones the more I love him.

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) August 30, 2015"

Morris is clearly the incumbent in Washington, and it would take quite a lot to unseat him in 2015—he has put up back-to-back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons to being his career—but the Redskins have to like what they’ve seen in Jones so far. Jones has quickly climbed boards this preseason, as the rookie has racked up 139 yards on just 20 carries—nearly seven yards per carry. 

In PPR leagues, he’s worth a flier in the later rounds of the draft.

2015 projection: 51 carries, 214 yards, 1 touchdown; 40 receptions, 320 yards, 2 touchdowns

No. 6: Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns

Associated Press

There was hope earlier this offseason that Duke Johnson would win the starting job for the Cleveland Browns, but with less than two weeks to go until the season opener, it doesn’t seem like Johnson will unseat Isaiah Crowell.

At least not before the season starts.

Things aren’t looking great for Johnson right now. He was concussed during the team’s third preseason game, and the extent of the damage is currently unknown, according to Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal.

Johnson slips into the top half of these rankings because of the assumed PPR settings. His pass-catching abilities have been touted throughout the offseason, with ESPN.com’s Pat McManamon writing in May: “Johnson’s receiving ability fills a great void for the Browns.”

This may be a rosy projection for Johnson given all of the negativity surrounding him right now, but that’s the type of optimism he inspires. And given that the Browns were the 29th run-heaviest team last season, per Pro Football Focus, the starting gig in Cleveland is worthwhile.

2015 projection: 76 carries, 304 yards, 2 touchdowns; 30 receptions, 240 yards, 1 touchdown

No. 5: Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Of the running backs who have been featured on this list so far, Tevin Coleman has the best shot at securing a starting spot early in the season. As such, the gap between Nos. 1-5 and Nos. 6-12 is sizable.

In other words, while Duke Johnson, Matt Jones and some of the other running backs previously discussed are of the late-round-flier variety, Coleman and the running backs who will be discussed after are all RB2, RB3 or flex options.

By the middle of the year, I fully expected Coleman to supplant Devonta Freeman as the Falcons’ lead running back. That’s not to say Freeman won’t stick around and garner carries—which caps Coleman’s ceiling this year—but if Coleman is able to secure the starting spot in Atlanta’s offense, it’ll be a boon to his fantasy value.

That’s an obvious thing to say, but what does it actually mean? For starters, it means six-plus touchdowns are readily obtainable, and 700-plus yards isn’t out of the question either.

Coleman’s year-end stats truly depend on how quickly he’s able to slide into the No. 1 running back position, but once he does, he becomes a viable flex option for your fantasy squad who could flirt with RB2 territory.

2015 projection: 187 carries, 748 yards, 6 touchdowns; 30 receptions, 255 yards, 1 touchdown

No. 4: Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers

Donald Miralle/Getty Images

Melvin Gordon steps into a favorable spot with the San Diego Chargers, where he’ll be tasked with shouldering most of the ground game.

The Chargers also have Danny Woodhead and Branden Oliver, but neither is expected to eat into Gordon’s carries too much. The receiving game is another story, as it’s conceivable that both Woodhead and Oliver will finish the season with more receptions than Gordon. (Woodhead definitely will, assuming he remains healthy, and Oliver has a chance.)

The Chargers are expected to roll with a committee backfield featuring Gordon, Woodhead and Oliver.

“As coach has always said—I’m not saying anything out of the blue—it’s a running back by committee crew," San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers said, according to Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune. "It’s going to be a team effort in that bunch. We’re going to need all of them to carry the load in the run game and to catch the ball out of the backfield."

There’s no reason to believe it won’t be a team effort, but there’s also no reason to believe Gordon will cede too many carries to Woodhead or Oliver. He may miss out on some snaps to those two, but he figures to be the early-down back nonetheless.

The end result will be a solid rookie season for Gordon. He should top 225 carries, which means he could flirt with the 1,000-yard barrier. He should also be the team’s goal-line back, so six to eight touchdowns is a reasonable expectation.

These numbers make Gordon a back-end RB2.

2015 projection: 239 carries, 981 yards, 7 touchdowns; 15 receptions, 128 yards, 1 touchdown

No. 3: T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

At this time last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars running back that everyone was talking about was Toby Gerhart. That didn’t go over so well, so it’s natural for some to raise an eyebrow when T.J. Yeldon’s name is brought up.

Yeldon saw his first action of the preseason in Jacksonville’s third game. He carried the ball eight times for only 10 yards, but he scored a touchdown. He also caught one pass for 12 yards.

More important than his final stats from a preseason game, though, was the fact that the Jaguars rolled with Yeldon as their starter. Per Pro Football Focus, Denard Robinson was able to rack up 488 yards over his final seven games last season as the Jaguars starter last year. Extrapolated over 16 games, that’s over 1,100 rushing yards.

Yeldon may not reach those totals—he will still split time with Robinson—but it gives you a sense of what’s possible for Yeldon right off the bat.

For more on Yeldon, check out the extensive breakdown our own Alec Nathan did on Yeldon’s (and Allen Hurns’) fantasy value following preseason Week 3.

2015 projection: 187 carries, 785 yards, 6 touchdowns; 35 receptions, 280 yards, 1 touchdown

No. 2: Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions

Don Juan Moore/Getty Images

The darling of the 2015 preseason, Ameer Abdullah is one of the trendiest picks in fantasy right now. There’s a good reason why.

Abdullah may technically be second in line behind Joique Bell right now, but there’s little doubt he’ll see plenty of action once the regular season gets underway.

Abdullah is a dual threat who can make big plays on the ground or through the air, as seen in the below Vine shared on Twitter by Jarrett Payton.

"

I really like Ameer Abdullah! #DETvsJAX https://t.co/6LqhuljFWB

— Jarrett W. Payton (@paytonsun) August 29, 2015"

He’s fast, shifty and powerful—just look at the way he finishes the run after the catch in the above video.

Abdullah can be safely drafted as a flex option or tail-end RB2 with huge upside. He really has no ceiling heading into the 2015 season.

Based on the projections alone, he nearly topped this list. When factoring in his upside, one could argue that Abdullah is the top rookie running back to own this year.

2015 projection: 178 carries, 802 yards, 5 touchdowns; 40 receptions, 360 yards, 2 touchdowns

No. 1: Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The first running back to go in the 2015 NFL draft is still the No. 1 fantasy option with the season less than two weeks away.

The cons are evident—he’s still not fully recovered from his ACL tear and has yet to master pass protection, per ESPN.com—but the pros are just as visible. The Rams love Gurley (they spotted a top-10 draft pick on him) and think he can be one of the game’s best. Bleacher Report's Jason Cole noted that Rams head coach Jeff Fisher thinks Gurley can be better than Eddie George and Chris Johnson, two great running backs he coached while with the Titans.

Of course, having a team and coach that love him doesn’t mean Gurley is going to be a star by default. It does, however, mean that the team is going to give him plenty of work to prove that he’s a star. And in fantasy football, volume is golden.

A slow start with Gurley should be expected as he gets his knee back to full strength. He may not be a full go until the middle of October. He could touch the ball about 10-12 times per game over the first six weeks of the season and close to 20 times per game over the final 10 games.

The Rams clearly want to run the football more. In addition to spending a high draft pick on Gurley, they also selected offensive lineman Greg Robinson with the second overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft.

The Rams also have Tre Mason, who will spell Gurley in the running game, and Benny Cunningham, who will catch some passes out of the backfield, but Gurley will lead the pack.

These factors—the fact he could ease into the season and the presence of Mason and Cunningham—mean Gurley’s ceiling isn’t as high as Abdullah’s, but he still projects out for the top spot this season.

He’s an obvious gamble—any player returning from an injury is—but that also means he could become quite the steal.

2015 projection: 231 carries, 1,040 yards, 7 touchdowns; 30 receptions, 255 yards, 1 touchdown