NFL Power Rankings 2015: Breaking Down Preseason Look at League's Pecking Order

A weird thing has happened over the past two years: Fewer weird things happened in the NFL.

In a league made for parity, two No. 1 seeds have clashed in each of the last two Super Bowls. A 16-game season and single-elimination postseason begs for wonky results, but the predicted powerhouses have instead run the gamut.

Other than the New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers stinking while the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals soared, little from 2014 would stun anyone handicapping the season this time last year. That may give early prognosticators some false confidence for projecting the upcoming season, but don't get too comfortable.

Unforeseen breakouts, busts and injuries will alter the NFL landscape on a week-to-week basis, making preseason power rankings more of a rough draft than a formal blueprint. Don't get too attached to this early order.

Rank	Team
1	Seattle Seahawks
2	Green Bay Packers
3	New England Patriots
4	Indianapolis Colts
5	Denver Broncos
6	Dallas Cowboys
7	Baltimore Ravens
8	Pittsburgh Steelers
9	Detroit Lions
10	Kansas City Chiefs
11	Philadelphia Eagles
12	Arizona Cardinals
13	Cincinnati Bengals
14	Buffalo Bills
15	Miami Dolphins
16	San Diego Chargers
17	Minnesota Vikings
18	New Orleans Saints
19	St. Louis Rams
20	New York Giants
21	Carolina Panthers
22	Houston Texans
23	San Francisco 49ers
24	Atlanta Falcons
25	Cleveland Browns
26	Chicago Bears
27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
28	New York Jets
29	Oakland Raiders
30	Jacksonville Jaguars
31	Washington Redskins
32	Tennessee Titans

Playoff Teams in Jeopardy

It's hardly bold to anticipate some playoff participants losing their spot this year. While several mainstays look like mortal locks to again vie for the Lombardi Trophy, not all 12 squads will return for the ride.

These three teams are in the greatest danger of missing out on the postseason.

Arizona Cardinals

No team overachieved more than the Arizona Cardinals last year. Despite riding a 9-1 start to their first playoff appearance since 2009, they never dominated the way their record suggested.

The Cardinals finished with an underwhelming plus-11 point differential, hardly befitting an 11-win team. That rate credits them with 8.3 expected wins, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.

Another telling sign of regression is Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a measure of team efficiency that grades each team compared to a league-average baseline. Arizona rated No. 22 with a minus-6.4 percent DVOA, placing below the Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants.

Grantland's Bill Barnwell rounded up a dozen other teams that won 10 or more games with a below-zero DVOA since 1989. He discovered an average decline of 2.6 victories, which would revert Arizona close to its expected wins.

Along with dealing with the Seattle Seahawks twice, Arizona must combat the AFC North and NFC North. Throw in the Philadelphia Eagles, and half of its games come against squads that won 10 or more games last season. Against teams with winning records, it went 5-3 with a minus-50 scoring margin in 2014. 

Even with a healthy Carson Palmer, the Cardinals have the look of a 9-7 squad that will need help to sneak into the playoffs as a wild card.

Cincinnati Bengals

Four teams have made the postseason in each of the past four years: the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers and…the Cincinnati Bengals.

Instead of appreciating their steady postseason presence, everyone instead eviscerates Andy Dalton for failing to take them further. Despite their long streak, the Bengals haven't won a playoff game since 1990. 

Last year, nobody should have expected Cincinnati to pose much of a threat. It survived a crowded AFC playoff picture despite brandishing a plus-21 point differential. Although its No. 12 DVOA offers a better showing, the secluded Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs placed higher on both fronts.

Don't expect the AFC North to get any easier this year. The Pittsburgh Steelers formed an offensive juggernaut last year, and the Baltimore Ravens' plus-107 point differential placed third in the AFC behind New England and Denver.

Dalton is what he is, so it's up to a refurbished offensive line to sustain Jeremy Hill's breakout and A.J. Green to stay healthy. A strong emergence from Tyler Eifert would make this offense tough, but it'll more realistically remain a maddening enigma.

Once again, the Bengals are right on the border of playoff contention. If they can't fend off stout competition, they'll struggle to cross the hump as a serious title threat.

Carolina Panthers

This is cheating. Due to winning the atrocious NFC South by default, the Carolina Panthers technically made the playoffs. Yet they also had a subpar season, finishing 7-8-1 with a minus-35 point differential and No. 24 DVOA. 

For the Panthers to make another playoff push, they will need the same scenario to unfold. The rest of the division must stink again as they pounce with a timely hot streak. Now the defense must also carry an ailing offense.

Last year's No. 19 passing attack already took a massive hit. No. 1 wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin will miss the entire season with a torn ACL, which he confirmed on Facebook:

On a team sorely lacking wideout depth, he amassed 73 catches for 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns during his rookie campaign. After him and tight end Greg Olsen, Jerricho Cotchery led the other pass-catchers with 48 receptions and 580 yards.

ESPN Stats & Info highlighted quarterback Cam Newton's struggles with Benjamin off the field:

Analysts made a living regularly citing no team winning the NFC South in back-to-back years since its inception. Despite regressing from 12 wins to seven, Carolina somehow ended the trend. It'll take another historically bad year from all four clubs to continue its run atop the division.

Advanced stats courtesy of Football Outsiders unless otherwise noted.