.png?w=2560 "MLB Power Rankings")
MLB Power Rankings as Padres Surge Continues, Blue Jays Back From the Dead, Red Sox Run Out of Gas
From both an odds and an on-field product standpoint, there are six teams that look like a lock to reach the postseason here in mid-August.
There is plenty of time for that to change, but with all six sitting at 98 percent or better odds of making the playoffs, it's fair to assume that the rest of the league is vying for six slots in the postseason bracket.
Zooming out, there are 15 teams with a realistic shot at securing one of those remaining spots, including seven teams from the wide-open AL Central and AL West division races that could also factor into the wild-card picture.
Ahead is an updated look at the MLB landscape as the margin for error narrows and playoff races heat up.
In case you missed it, B/R's MLB Power Rankings from last week—and each new edition throughout the season—can be found at the new MLB Power Rankings hub.
Nos. 30-26: Is It 2027 Yet?
1 of 10
30. San Francisco Giants (51-73)
29. Los Angeles Angels (49-76)
28. Kansas City Royals (51-74)
27. Athletics (49-75)
26. Colorado Rockies (50-74)
Notes
-The Angels (3-1) and Athletics (2-1) both won home series against the Rangers last week, leaving the Astros as the only team in the AL West with a winning record. Their seasons might be over, but that doesn't mean they won't play a role in deciding a wide-open division race.
-It's been a down year for outfielder Lawrence Butler, who is in the second season of a seven-year, $66.5 million extension with the Athletics. A strong finish would be a nice springboard into 2027, and he went 7-for-24 with four home runs last week.
-The Rockies entered last week with an 18-40 record away from Coors Field, but managed to take two of three from the Diamondbacks and Giants away from home. That pushes them to the top of this group, and gives them some nice momentum heading into a home series with the Dodgers.
Nos. 25-21: Still Alive...Technically
2 of 10
25. New York Mets (56-69)
24. Cincinnati Reds (59-64)
23. Washington Nationals (60-66)
22. Minnesota Twins (60-65)
21. Detroit Tigers (60-64)
Notes
-The Mets improved to 9-5 in August after sweeping the Nationals over the weekend, and with games left against the Phillies (4), Brewers (3), Padres (3), Rays (3), White Sox (3) and Yankees (3) they have a great opportunity to shake up the playoff picture with a strong finish.
-Reds infielder Sal Stewart is locked in a tight NL Rookie of the Year race with JJ Wetherholt (STL) and Nolan McLean (NYM), and he went 8-for-24 with a home run last week to extend his team-leading totals in home runs (26) and RBI (91).
-The Tigers had four straight series wins before getting swept by the White Sox, while the Twins also suffered a weekend series sweep at the hands of the Phillies. Both teams are still very much alive in the AL wild-card race, so they could quickly jump up a tier with a strong week.
Nos. 20-16: Facing an Uphill Battle
3 of 10
20. Seattle Mariners (59-66)
19. Cleveland Guardians (60-65)
18. Texas Rangers (61-64)
17. Pittsburgh Pirates (61-65)
16. Baltimore Orioles (61-63)
Notes
-The Guardians are 4-10 in August following series losses to the Tigers and Padres, but they have the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, according to Tankathon. They have only six games left against teams with winning records and one series apiece against the bottom five teams in these rankings.
-The Rangers have lost four of their last six series, and what was a two-game lead in the AL West standings at the start of that stretch has evaporated into a two-game deficit.
-How much longer before the Pirates simply shut ace Paul Skenes down for the rest of the year? His velocity is down, he has a 5.79 ERA over his last nine starts, and the team is down to a 3.6 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Nos. 15-11: The Fringe of Contention
4 of 10
15. Toronto Blue Jays (61-65)
14. St. Louis Cardinals (63-61)
13. Miami Marlins (64-61)
12. Houston Astros (63-62)
11. Chicago White Sox (65-58)
Notes
-Despite a soft sell at the trade deadline, the Blue Jays, Cardinals and Marlins are all within 3.5 games of a playoff spot and playing well right now. Those three teams went a combined 13-6 last week with two series wins each, and a spot inside the top 10 is in sight.
-After posting a .901 OPS with 34 home runs in 103 games at Triple-A, Cardinals outfielder Joshua Baez (No. 28 on B/R Top 100) debuted with a three-homer game against the rival Cubs on Saturday.
-If the season had ended on Sunday, the White Sox and Astros would both be division champions, and the South Siders would get a first-round bye in the playoffs. They have the sixth- and seventh-easiest schedules the rest of the way, per Tankathon, so the path is clear for them to punch their tickets to October.
Nos. 10-9
5 of 10
10. Boston Red Sox (66-58)
Previous Rank: No. 6
Last Week: 1-3 @ TOR, 1-2 @ PIT
The Red Sox began August with six straight wins as part of a nine-game winning streak overall, but they are now just 2-7 in their last nine with three consecutive series losses. They are averaging just 3.6 runs per game during that recent skid, and deadline pickup Adley Rutschman is 1-for-17 with nine strikeouts in a Red Sox uniform.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks (66-59)
Previous Rank: No. 9
Last Week: 1-2 vs. COL, 2-1 @ ATL
Despite a sub-.500 record on the road (30-32) and against teams with a winning record (26-32), the D-backs have won the games they are supposed to frequently enough to be just one game out in the NL wild-card standings. Veteran Nolan Arenado slugged three home runs last week to secure his ninth career 20-homer campaign.
Nos. 8-7
6 of 10
8. Philadelphia Phillies (67-58)
Previous Rank: No. 8
Last Week: 1-2 @ STL, 3-0 @ MIN
The Phillies are 10-5 in August, and the pitching staff has logged a 3.24 ERA with three shutouts along the way as they look to secure their spot alongside the NL title contenders. Veteran Aaron Nola has a 2.91 ERA in 21.2 innings over his last four starts as he is finding some consistency at the perfect time.
7. San Diego Padres (67-58)
Previous Rank: No. 10
Last Week: 3-0 vs. MIL, 2-1 @ CLE
The Padres have not lost a series since dropping three of four to the Braves from July 20-23, and last week's three-game sweep of the Brewers was a clear indication that this team is the real deal. If they had not won eight of nine heading into deadline day, they might have been sellers, and now they're arguably the hottest team in baseball.
Nos. 6-5
7 of 10
6. New York Yankees (69-55)
Previous Rank: No. 7
Last Week: 2-1 vs. SEA, 1-2 @ TOR
In their last 16 games, the Yankees have been held to two or fewer runs 10 times, yet they have still managed to go 8-8 during that stretch. With the trio of AL Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole and Max Fried anchoring the rotation, they don't always need a crooked number on the scoreboard to come out on top.
5. Atlanta Braves (74-50)
Previous Rank: No. 5
Last Week: 2-1 vs. NYM, 1-2 vs. ARI
The Braves got some heat for not doing enough to improve at the trade deadline, but with Tyler Mahle turning in back-to-back quality starts since joining the team, those concerns have faded. The 7.5-game lead they have built in the NL East is the largest of any division leader.
Nos. 4-3
8 of 10
4. Tampa Bay Rays (74-49)
Previous Rank: No. 4
Last Week: 3-0 @ ATH, 0-3 vs. BAL
The Rays went 9-0 on their latest road trip with sweeps of the Rockies, Mariners and Athletics, then returned home where they were promptly swept by the Orioles. Despite that stumble, they still hold a 5.5-game lead in the AL East race, and Drew Rasmussen (5 GS, 5-0, 1.20 ERA, 35 K, 30.0 IP) is pitching like a bona fide ace since the All-Star break.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (74-51)
Previous Rank: No. 3
Last Week: 3-0 vs. KC, 1-3 vs. MIL
With a 5-10 record and minus-19 run differential in August, the Dodgers are not playing their best baseball right now, but they are also not trying to win the month of August. A strong return from Blake Snell (6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 10 K) after three months on the injured list might be the single biggest takeaway of the month, or at least since Tarik Skubal joined the roster.
Nos. 2-1
9 of 10
2. Chicago Cubs (72-53)
Previous Rank: No. 2
Last Week: 2-1 @ WAS, 1-2 vs. STL
After a pair of lopsided losses to the rival Cardinals on Saturday and Sunday, the Cubs have something to prove heading into their series against the crosstown White Sox. That said, they are still 10-5 in August, and the offense has slugged an MLB-leading 25 home runs in 15 games this month.
1. Milwaukee Brewers (77-48)
Previous Rank: No. 1
Last Week: 0-3 @ SD, 3-1 @ LAD
There is no quicker way to brush aside getting swept by the Padres than by taking three of four from the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. How many people outside of Milwaukee know that Jake Bauers has an .884 OPS with a team-leading 21 home runs and 70 RBI this season?
Complete Rankings
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Complete Rankings
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Atlanta Braves
6. New York Yankees
7. San Diego Padres
8. Philadelphia Phillies
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
10. Boston Red Sox
11. Chicago White Sox
12. Houston Astros
13. Miami Marlins
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Toronto Blue Jays
16. Baltimore Orioles
17. Pittsburgh Pirates
18. Texas Rangers
19. Cleveland Guardians
20. Seattle Mariners
21. Detroit Tigers
22. Minnesota Twins
23. Washington Nationals
24. Cincinnati Reds
25. New York Mets
26. Colorado Rockies
27. Athletics
28. Kansas City Royals
29. Los Angeles Angels
30. San Francisco Giants
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