NFL Schedule 2015: Key Matchups for Underrated Playoff Contenders

There are expectations heaped upon all 32 NFL teams even before they take a snap in preseason. These expectations are based on what happened in the offseason with players brought in and let go, who was drafted and how quickly talent can come together. 

Preseason expectations, by their nature, are faulty. A lot of things happen over the course of a season that change things, especially an injury or suspension to a star quarterback. Think of how different the New England Patriots look without Tom Brady if his four-game suspension sticks, for example. 

Yet listing the Patriots in a sympathetic context doesn't actually work, because they are the NFL's gold standard when it comes to winning. There are 31 other teams that want to be where that franchise is, and a handful have realistic expectations of taking that crown away. 

It's that next crop of teams, though, that present a fascinating case study for 2015. Looking at the schedule and how teams stand, saying the Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts or Denver Broncos are in the title mix isn't interesting. 

Getting out of the elite crop is where the fun starts, because the NFL is built on parity and surprises, either on a week-to-week basis or an entire season. In order to get into that elite group, a team must be able to defeat them. 

So, looking over the entire 2015 NFL schedule, these are the games that will determine how high the underrated playoff contenders can climb. 

Week 4: Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos

The Vikings enter this season as a fashionable choice to make the NFC playoffs. It's understandable because they won seven games last year without Adrian Peterson for the final 15 games, and Teddy Bridgewater completed at least 68 percent of his passes in each of the last five weeks. 

Peterson is going to be a fascinating player to watch when the regular season starts, because he's at an age (30) often associated with the running-back decline, though basically losing a full year in 2014 may have given him a second wind. 

As noted by Andy Benoit of TheMMQB.com, Bridgewater earned full faith in his coaches, specifically during a Week 16 game against Miami:

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He took command of the game by making smart decisions at the line of scrimmage, moving constructively within the pocket and showing an excellent balance of patience and aggression. Seeing coverages clearly, he threw on time and with conviction. He looked like he’d been starting in offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s system for 12 years.

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While that duo will largely determine how far the Vikings go in 2015, Pro Football Focus' metrics have two of their defensive linemen rated among the best at their position last season:

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The strength of the Vikings defense is up front, with Linval Joseph and Shariff Floyd an impressive duo on the interior. Floyd was our fifth-highest graded defensive tackle in 2014, with his quick first step helping him to excel against the run and as a pass-rusher. On the edge, Everson Griffen had a strong season, finishing as our eighth-highest graded 4-3 defensive end, and registering 64 total pressures.

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It is important to mention that none of Minnesota's seven wins in 2014 came against teams that finished under .500, which brings things forward to a Week 4 matchup this season at Denver. 

Even if expectations for the Broncos are softer than the previous two years, the roster is still loaded. And until Peyton Manning gets carried off the field, he's still among the best quarterbacks in football. 

The fact Minnesota is playing this game on the road is also crucial, as the Vikings went 2-6 away from home in 2014. To be a playoff team, beating good teams on the road is essential.

The Vikings will be tested throughout the year with two matchups against Green Bay, back-to-back battles against Seattle and the Arizona Cardinals, and their first major test against Denver in Week 4. 

Week 3: Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (Monday Night)

Even though the Chiefs weren't able to repeat their success from 2013, last year's team did finish second in the AFC West and had a chance to make the playoffs with some help in Week 17.

Head coach Andy Reid's team also finished with a better point differential (plus-72) than 2014 playoff teams, such as the Pittsburgh Steelers (plus-68), Detroit Lions (plus-39) and Arizona (plus-11). While not a perfect gauge of overall performance, it does illustrate that this is a group that can compete with those teams. 

Last year, in Week 4 on Monday Night Football, the Chiefs dominated the Patriots 41-14 in what turned out to be a mirage for them. It was also turning point for the eventual Super Bowl champions. 

This year, the scheduling gods have given the Chiefs another early-season prime-time matchup with a Super Bowl contender. This time it happens to be Green Bay, which feels like an appropriate test for Kansas City. 

Quarterback Alex Smith remains the biggest focal point, as the Chiefs have gotten him help at wide receiver with Jeremy Maclin taking the role vacated by Dwayne Bowe. 

Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star spoke to Chiefs offensive coordinator Doug Pederson about why Smith's style of play isn't necessarily a bad thing:

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You would love to score in four plays and not always put eight-, nine-, or 10-play drives together. Again, if the ball’s not there, and Alex is great at this, if it’s not there down the field, he’s going to find the next available receiver, and he’s going to manage that particular play well in that time.

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Per ESPN Stats & Info, it's been a long time since the Chiefs have had a wide receiver catch a touchdown pass:

The lack of a dynamic passing game seems to be the major stumbling block for the Chiefs. Jamaal Charles remains one of the league's best running backs, accounting for 14 total touchdowns and averaging five yards per carry last season. 

Going against the Packers at Lambeau means the Chiefs will have to put up a lot of points in a hurry. They will have a warm-up act in Week 2 against Denver, but the true measuring stick game will happen at Green Bay. 

Week 10: Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Predicting the worst team from 2014 to be a playoff contender the next season is certainly going out on a limb, though working in Tampa Bay's favor is the division it plays in. All four teams in the NFC South finished under .500, while the Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons don't look to be appreciably better. 

The Buccaneers, however, are moving in the right direction despite having many holes still to fill. Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston will be the focal point of everything, as he should be because of the position. 

Preseason hyperbole is running rampant, as former Green Bay and current Tampa Bay center Evan Smith proved with this quote to Eric Adelson of Yahoo Sports:

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I've only been around two other quarterbacks. I played with one who was really good. He reminds me of a very young version of him. ... Jameis hasn't taken a snap yet in this league. When I first got to Green Bay, you could see the talent there, you could see Aaron was starting to take off as a superstar. You can tell Jameis has that potential.

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As ridiculous as it is to compare virtually any quarterback playing today with Aaron Rodgers, Winston is coming into a situation that should allow him to succeed right out of the gate.

Mike Evans got lost in the Odell Beckham hype, but he had 12 touchdowns and 15.5 yards per reception in his rookie season with an unstable quarterback situation. Vincent Jackson is still a productive wide receiver, also breaking the 1,000-yard barrier in 2014.

With an early-season schedule that looks soft on paper—their first seven opponents are the Tennessee Titans, New Orleans, Houston Texans, Carolina, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Redskins and Atlanta—the Buccaneers can get off to a solid start while Winston works out the rookie bugs. 

That makes Tampa Bay's Week 10 matchup against a good Dallas team, very critical. The Cowboys may have questions at running back, but the offense remains stacked everywhere else with a stellar offensive line, terrific quarterback, one of the league's best wide receivers and star tight end. 

Everything the Buccaneers need to know about where they stand in the NFL hierarchy will come in Week 10. Winston will be halfway through his rookie season and will either show progress or hit the wall a lot of young players find. 

Even with those questions, the Buccaneers can still be in the NFC South race if they are 4-3 through their first seven games, because everyone else looks mediocre. 

Stats via Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted