10 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions Ahead of the 2026 NFL Season

The calendar has turned to July, and America's 250th birthday is this weekend. There would be celebrations and barbecues galore if it wasn't for the searing heat across the country.

It's still celebration time for fantasy managers, though. The online drafts for the Scott Fish Bowl will begin next week. And to true fantasy football managers, that means that draft season is here.

Over the coming days and weeks, there will be more fantasy articles than you can shake a Sno-Cone at, even as the summer heat ramps up. Sleepers, busts, strategy—everything you'll need for draft season.

We're getting in on the fun as well, rolling out some bold predictions for the fantasy football season to come.

Kyler Murray Will Post Top-5 Fantasy Numbers Among QBs

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

Might as well start bold—by predicting that a quarterback who hasn't even won the starting job for his own team yet will finish inside the top-five among signal-callers.

The battle to start for the Minnesota Vikings between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy may not be officially over.

However, most pundits expect Murray to eventually emerge as the winner, and Bucky Brooks of NFL.com wrote that he expects Kevin O'Connell's latest exclamation project to be a smash in the Twin Cities:

"The combination of Murray's spectacular playmaking ability and Kevin O'Connell's creative scheming could quickly remind the football world why this quarterback won the Heisman Trophy at Oklahoma and then went first overall in the 2019 NFL Draft. Injuries have plagued the former Offensive Rookie of the Year in recent seasons, but Murray's dual-threat skills should be enhanced by the Vikings' playmakers and play designer. After watching KOC transform a struggling Sam Darnold into a Pro Bowler in 2024, I'm confident that the coaching wizard can help the ultra-talented Murray regain his magic in Minnesota."

In Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings, Murray would have the best weapons of his career at his disposal. O'Connell turned Darnold from an afterthought to the seventh-ranked quarterback in fantasy points two years ago.

And in his best season (2020), Murray threw for 3,971 yards, ran for 819 more and had more fantasy points than any quarterback in the NFC.

Jayden Daniels Won't Crack the Top-15 Fantasy Quarterbacks

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AP Foto/Nick Wass

As a rookie in 2024, Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders was a revelation—the second overall pick in that year's draft threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns, added another 891 yards on the ground (second-most among quarterbacks) and finished fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy points.

However, as great as Daniels was as a rookie, his second season was disappointing. Injuries limited him to just seven games. Even when he was on the field, he wasn't the same player. His rushing yards per game dropped from over 50 to under 40. His passing yards per game fell from 209.9 to 180.3. Daniels threw just eight touchdown passes over those seven games. And perhaps most importantly, his fantasy points per game dropped to 19.3—just inside the top 20 at the position.

More than a few fantasy pundits are predicting a rebound season under new offensive coordinator David Blough. But he is a first-time OC, and the Commanders surprisingly didn't do much to upgrade Daniels' passing-game weapons. Terry McLaurin is healthy, but there isn't a lot behind him.

It's not difficult to make an argument that among the top-five quarterbacks in Average Draft Position, Daniels is the riskiest of the lot. And whether it's due to another injury or offensive struggles from a bad Commanders team, his third season is going to be another letdown.

Jahmyr Gibbs Will Join the 1,000-1,000 Club in 2026

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Jahmyr Gibbs of the Detroit Lions was already one of the most valuable running backs in fantasy even while sharing the backfield with David Montgomery.

But as the 2025 season progressed, Gibbs' share of those backfield touches increased, and with David Montgomery now in Houston, Lions head coach Dan Campbell told reporters that it's Gibbs' show in Motown now:

"He's going to be our bell cow now. He became more of that last year, and we're going to hang our hat on him quite a bit. We're going to do a lot of things that we feel he does well, and I've mentioned this before, but he can run everything that we've got. He can run every scheme that anybody's ever run. He is not just an outside runner; he is not just a space runner; he can create his own space in the middle."

Gibbs has averaged a gaudy 5.3 yards per carry over his career. In each of the past two years he has gained at least 1,200 rushing yards and scored at least 13 rushing touchdowns. Last year, he was targeted 94 times and caught 77 passes.

The sky is the limit this year. The Lions are one of the most potent offenses in the game. Per Ian Hartitz of A Fantasy Life, they are among the league's leaders in targets for backs—seventh-most since 2023.

Gibbs will sail past 1,000 rushing yards, catch 100 passes, and become the third back in NFL history to amass 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season. And he will finish as the No. 1 running back overall in PPR points.

Christian McCaffrey Will be Fantasy's Biggest Bust in 2026

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In terms of average draft position, Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers is the third running back off fantasy draft boards and the sixth pick overall.

However, as B.J. Ruddell noted for Touchdown Wire, there are any number of reasons why making the running back your first pick in 2026 could be a major mistake:

"Running backs coming off 400-touch seasons almost always statistically decline the following year. RBs who are 30+ years old average even steeper declines. McCaffrey is 30 years old and coming off a 450-touch campaign (including the playoffs). He is priced as an elite fantasy player, sporting an RB3 / overall-6 ADP. But based on historical data, he's one of the biggest early-round risks."

The average statistical decline for running backs who eclipse 370 touches in a season since 2016 is about 48 percent. The average statistical decline for running backs who have topped 2,000 total yards in a season since 2010 is over 50 percent.

Then there's the matter of us having seen this movie before with McCaffrey—twice. After the 30-year-old had 403 touches and 2,392 total yards in 2019, he played in just three games in 2020; after he piled up 2,023 total yards on just 339 touches in 2023, he played in four games in 2024.

McCaffrey's workload last year was bigger than in either of those seasons. He's older than in either of those seasons.

You have been warned.

David Montgomery Will be a Top-12 Fantasy RB in 2026

AP Photo/Maria Lysaker

For the past few seasons, David Montgomery has been the Robin to Jahmyr Gibbs' Batman in Detroit. Last year with the Lions, Montgomery had a career-low 158 carries.

After being dealt to the Houston Texans, though, the 29-year-old gets another chance to be a lead back in the NFL.

Rivers McCown of Rotoworld sees big-time value with Montgomery in fantasy drafts this year:

"Montgomery was a trusted third-down back with the Bears for years, only really losing the role in Detroit because they happened to draft one of the best passing-down backs in the entire NFL in Jahmyr Gibbs. The Texans clearly think he can handle it as well even if they might rest him on a few. In 2024, [Joe] Mixon was given 245 carries and 52 targets in just 14 games in a very similar situation, and he returned fantasy value even behind a bad offensive line with 12 total touchdowns. If Mixon had played all 17 games, he was on pace for 341 touches, which would have put him fifth in the league."

Mixon was 10th among running backs in PPR points per game in that 2024 campaign. There has been just one season in Montgomery's career (2020) where he topped 300 touches.

In that season with the Bears, Montgomery surpassed 1,500 total yards, scored 10 touchdowns and was fourth among all backs in PPR points.

He has legitimate RB1 upside available at a low-end RB2 price tag.

DeVonta Smith Will Post Top-5 Fantasy Numbers at his Position

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There are some major changes in the Philadelphia Eagles offense this year. After four years (and an equal number of 1,000-yard seasons), A.J. Brown was traded to the New England Patriots.

That move elevates sixth-year veteran DeVonta Smith to the No. 1 wideout spot in Philly, and as Adam Pfeiefer wrote for A Fantasy Life, he has excelled with top-dog status in the past:

"With Brown now in New England, coveted WR1 volume will follow. Over the last three years, Smith has been sporting a 28% TPRR (targets per route run) with Brown off the field, which would easily be his highest TPRR rate over an entire season. Meanwhile, in five games with Brown sidelined since 2022, Smith's averages are, as you'd expect, strong--9.0 targets, 6.2 receptions, 87.8 receiving yards, 16.2 PPR PPG and 31.4% TPRR."

A TPPR rate over 30 percent would put Smith toward the top of the league among wide receivers. Over a full season, that 87.8 receiving yards per game would leave him flirting with 1,500 receiving yards. And 16.2 PPR points per game would have put Smith well inside the top 10 among wideouts last year.

Yes, the Eagles drafted rookie Makai Lemon in April, but it's Smith who should be the unquestioned alpha in the Eagles' passing game.

Brown finished as a top-five fantasy receiver twice during his time with Philadelphia. Smith will duplicate that feat in 2026.

Jaylen Waddle Will Crack Top-10 Receivers in First Season in Denver

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After five years in Miami and three 1,000-yard seasons, Jaylen Waddle was part of the Dolphins' offseason roster purge.

Now the 27-year-old is in Denver, and despite the presence of Courtland Sutton in the Mile High City, Derek Brown of Fantasy Pros believes Waddle is a breakout waiting to happen in 2026:

"Waddle should get a wonderful infusion of volume this season, moving from an offense that was 29th in neutral passing rate to one that was fourth in that metric last season. Overall, Denver was fourth in passing attempts behind only Arizona, Cincy, and Dallas last year. Waddle is a stud no matter what metric you look at. Last year, among 109 qualifying wide receivers (per Fantasy Points Data), he was 12th in target per route run rate, 12th in yards per route run, seventh in first downs per route run, 12th in separation score, and 11th in route win rate. He also bested Courtland Sutton in each of those metrics with the exception of route win rate (15.3% vs. 15.5%)."

Waddle is going to lead the Broncos in targets this season. Last year, Sutton turned the No. 1 role at receiver in Denver into 74 catches, over 1,000 yards and top-15 numbers in PPR points.

Sutton isn't going to disappear. But Waddle is a better and more explosive pass-catcher, including leading the league at 18.1 yards per reception in 2022.

He's going to finish as a fantasy WR1—and win fantasy leagues for people as a result.

Michael Wilson Will be Top-20 Fantasy Receiver in 2026—and Outscore Marvin Harrison Jr.

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There wasn't a bigger surprise at wide receiver last year than Michael Wilson of the Arizona Cardinals—the fourth-year pro started the season on the waiver wire in most leagues and finished it as a top-10 PPR option.

But despite catching 78 passes, topping 1,000 yards and finding the end zone seven times, Wilson has been cast aside by the fantasy community—his ADP is just inside the top 40 at wideout and two rounds behind Marvin Harrison Jr.

That is a mistake.

Yes, Wilson's late-season breakout happened in part because Harrison was banged up. But the numbers are the numbers—and they are gaudy.

Per FTN's Tyler Loechner, from Weeks 11-18, Wilson ranked second in the NFL in receiving yards behind only Puka Nacua. Wilson ranked third in receptions behind Nacua and Trey McBride. He ranked third in targets per game behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja'Marr Chase. He had an 83 percent snap share, ran 303 routes and posted a 24.7 percent target market share in that stretch.

The Cardinals have the same quarterback—Jacoby Brissett—who peppered Wilson in targets last year. There's also a new coach in Arizona in Mike LaFleur who has no baked-in loyalty to Harrison.

Wilson would be hard-pressed to repeat last year's WR1 finish, but he showed last year that he can be a high-end offensive contributor. But he's going to stay well within WR2 territory—and outpoint Harrison.

Tucker Kraft Will be Fantasy Football's Top Tight End This Year

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Admittedly, predicting Tucker Kraft of the Green Bay Packers will finish as fantasy's top tight end this year isn't exactly bold.

Sure, Trey McBride of the Arizona Cardinals and Brock Bowers of the Las Vegas Raiders are the Godzilla and King Kong of the position—and with good reason. Colston Loveland of the Chicago Bears and Tyler Warren of the Indianapolis Colts are the next two TEs off the board on average.

But Kraft showed last year that he's capable of hanging with that quartet and even besting them.

Before tearing his ACL last year, the 25-year-old averaged over 15 yards per catch and scored six touchdowns in eight games. Over a full season, he would have caught 68 passes, topped 1,000 receiving yards and scored 13 times.

The Green Bay Packers have no shortage of young wide receivers, but none has emerged as a go-to target in the passing game. As a matter of fact, an argument can be made that Kraft was actually functioning in that role when he got hurt, especially in the red zone.

Kraft did all that despite just 5.5 targets per game. Bump those numbers a little while maintaining anywhere near his per-catch figures, and there will be a new sheriff in town at tight end in 2026.

49ers Tight End Jake Tonges Will be a League-Winning Bargain This Year

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It's the last play of the game, so we might as well chuck one into the end zone.

Over his first two seasons in the NFL, Tonges was essentially a non-factor in the passing game. But last year, he played just under 400 snaps, catching 34 passes for 293 yards and an impressive five touchdowns.

Teammate George Kittle was PFF's highest-graded tight end a year ago, but Tonges also worked his way into the top 10, as Thomas Valentine noted for the site:

"With Kittle banged up for half the season, the 49ers leaned into 2022 undrafted free agent Jake Tonges for production at the tight end position. Tonges entered the 2025 campaign with just one target in his career, all the way back in 2022, but he deputized tremendously for Kittle. Tonges caught 40 passes for 366 yards and five touchdowns in 17 games, despite playing eight contests with fewer than 10 total offensive snaps on the field."

Fantasy managers appear relatively confident Kittle will make a relatively quick recovery from the Achilles tear that ended his 2025 season, despite the fact that he'll be 33 in October and has an injury history.

That injury came in the postseason, though. Kittle could easily start 2026 on PUP and may not be close to 100 percent for a while after that.

If Kittle isn't out there, Tonges will be the No. 1 tight end for a team that uses the position a lot with a quarterback who trusts him. And he's going undrafted just about everywhere.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.