Bold Predictions for 2026 NHL Free Agency and Ongoing Trade Dramas
We are just about 24 hours away from 2026 NHL free agency. Then again, after last week's chaos, it already feels like it started.
Draft week was extremely eventful on the trade front, in a way that felt free-agency-esque.
Welcome to the NHL in 2026. Everyone is adjusting to the new CBA, the cap keeps rising, and suddenly the term "no-movement clause" means a whole lot more.
Now more than ever, big-name players such as Brady Tkachuk are using the no-movement clauses given to them in their contracts to end up where they want to be. Instead of hitting the free-agent market, players with leverage are giving teams lists of suitable trade partners, and teams are squeezing everything they can out of those partners (which sometimes isn't much).
This means the look and feel of the first day of free agency has changed. Instead of looking at a list of available players and wondering which teams will sign them to massive contracts, we're seeing more trades leak out.
While this changes what free agency looks like, it doesn't make the surrounding weeks any less fun. If anything, it's less predictable. Anyone can be traded, not everyone is a free agent.
Did we already see the biggest trades of the offseason last week, or are there more to come this week? Will the biggest names reportedly requesting trades get what they want?
Here are some bold predictions for 2026 NHL free agency.
Free Agency Itself Is Going to Be...Average
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Between the new CBA kicking in, the salary cap rising and the relatively new phenomenon of stars around the league flexing their no-movement clauses, we've been seeing a shift in how the biggest names in the NHL move over the past few seasons.
The Quinn Hughes and Mikko Rantanen situations were pretty telling appetizers of what was to come. The trade market got Hughes to a contender, and the trade market got Rantanen the extension he wanted with the contender he wanted.
Last season's free agency kicked off with what would be the biggest (and one of only a few shockers) move in the sign-and-trade that brought Mitch Marner to Vegas.
This season, we already saw Brady Tkachuk get traded to Florida. We also got an extremely lively draft week featuring a slew of significant trades: emphasis on trades. Now, we're keeping our ears on the insiders who keep mentioning huge names—Dylan Larkin, Connor Hellebuyck and Jason Robertson among them—requesting or signing off on trade talks.
The days of free agents waiting until July 1 to be courted and sign monster deals with new teams are on pause while the league is in flux between the era of no-movement clauses, a rising salary cap and plenty of Cup contenders in states with favorable tax situations. All of this and more is adding up to a moment in time that heavily favors the trade market.
As we saw last week, this doesn't mean this period of time is a yawn fest (if anything, it opens us up to more possibilities). It just means we shouldn't expect the blockbusters to come from free agents signing via the traditional route tomorrow.
Jason Robertson Stays a Star
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Restricted free agent Jason Robertson's next contract—and the idea of the Stars trading their star, anticipating the big payday ahead—have been a big topic of conversation for the past year.
That talk intensified last week when Robertson reportedly turned down a sign-and-trade with the Kraken that would've given him a ~$15 million AAV.
According to The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun, the Stars haven't given up on shopping Robertson around and seeing what type of return around the league they'd get for the 45-goal scorer. At the same time, LeBrun reported Monday that the Stars and Robertson are still trying to negotiate and find a middle ground.
It's likely Dallas doesn't want to pay Robertson significantly more than Mikko Rantanen's $12 million AAV.
The cap has risen since that Rantanen deal, and, as the Kraken showed, Robertson would command north of that $12 million AAV on the open market.
Still, Robertson turning down a major AAV from the Kraken indicates he wants to stick with a contender. There aren't many—if any—contenders out there right now that can afford to give the 26-year-old significantly more than that $12 million AAV range.
Perhaps he utilizes a bridge deal structure like Connor McDavid, but given how this has already played out, it makes the most logical sense that Robertson will take a lower AAV to stay with the Stars.
The question then becomes how much the Stars are willing to budge to keep him.
Dylan Larkin Heads to Vegas
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Dylan Larkin made waves in early June when the Red Wings captain reportedly requested a trade out of Detroit. He's been a Red Wing his entire career, and the Red Wings have not made the playoffs since his rookie year in 2015-16, a 10-year drought that stands as the longest active streak in the NHL.
You can't really blame the soon-to-be-30-year-old for tiring of the Yzerplan at this point, especially when he got a taste of glory winning Gold with Team USA at the 2026 Olympics.
Larkin's got a no-trade clause and five years left on his contract, making this request particularly interesting. His $8.7 million AAV for five more years would look pretty tasty to a contender, given the cap rising and his abilities as a first-line center.
You know who loves acquiring proven superstars via trade? The Vegas Golden Knights and Larkin are reportedly interested in landing there. They have just $4.625 million in cap space, per PuckPedia, with around six to nine free agents to re-sign or let walk. That figure includes Alex Pietrangelo's $8.8 million AAV, though. Could the Golden Knights figure out a way to incentivize a team to take on the last year of that contract and offload it?
There are tons of other logistics to figure out if the Golden Knights are to acquire Larkin, but they tend to figure these things out.
Connor Hellebuyck Stays a Jet
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Folks, it's the year of the trade.
If trade fodder involving the rest of the names on this list didn't convince you of that, look no further than the reality the Winnipeg Jets find themselves in. They might have to part ways with Vezina-winning, world-class goalie Connor Hellebuyck.
Hellebuyck's got an $8.5 million AAV through 2031 and a no-movement clause. Even with his no-movement clause restricting who the Jets could trade with, the return has to be enormous for the Jets to go through with this, and a contender in need of improvement in net will likely jump at the opportunity regardless.
Hellebuyck has been linked to the Sabres in early trade talks, and the deal would make sense as Buffalo has the funds and could really use some stability in net. Both goaltenders it utilized last season got the job done, but they also had some less convincing stretches. An upgrade like Hellebuyck in net could really strengthen the team, especially after losing Alex Tuch and Bowen Byram.
Hellebuyck reportedly approved a move to Buffalo, and according to The Fourth Period's Dave Pagnotta, an initial Sabres offer included the fourth overall pick they got for Byram, starting goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Jack Quinn, and at least one additional asset.
According to reports, the teams are still in talks. It's hard to imagine what else the Sabres can come up with if the fourth-round pick already used is now off the table and that offer was rejected. Then again, it's hard to imagine any package worth years of Hellebuyck at $8.5 million.
Goalie trades are rare, and Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff making any sort of splash is even rarer. Hellebuyck stays a Jet.
Columbus Blue Jackets Are a Mess and Will Be Forced to Trade Zach Werenski
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According to LeBrun, the Blue Jackets have started fielding trade calls on Norris Trophy winner Zach Werenski. He's reportedly unlikely to extend his contract at the end of his current one in two years, so the front office is now grappling with whether to trade him now or let him walk later.
For the lack of a better term, this is a mess for the Blue Jackets. They could trade him now for perhaps the most worthwhile return while his value is sky high, keep him for one more year and see if he changes his mind, or just keep him for the entirety of his contract.
After this information came to light, Kirill Marchenko's camp let the front office know that he would not be extending his contract. He's a restricted free agent, so his contract ends at the end of the upcoming season, but the franchise retains his negotiating rights for the season after.
Werenski reserves the right to do what's best for him, but he has put the Blue Jackets in an undeniably tough spot. With his value being the highest it's ever been (he is coming off a Norris Trophy win and a stellar performance at the Olympics), we say Columbus trades him this offseason.
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