World Cup 2026 Favorites and Updated Group Odds for Top Contenders
The 2026 FIFA World Cup winner will most likely be a repeat victor.
Six of the seven countries with the shortest odds to win the World Cup have at least one championship in their history.
Spain, the 2010 champion, comes into North America as the slight favorite over two-time winner France.
Defending champion Argentina sits sixth on the odds list behind Spain, France, England, Brazil and Portugal.
The majority of the pre-tournament favorites have low odds to win their respective groups.
Not every game in the group stage will be easy for the favorites, as evidence by the match odds, but the expectation is that we see all of the big names in the knockout round.
World Cup Odds
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Spain (+450; bet $100 to win $450)
France (+470)
England (+650)
Brazil (+850)
Portugal (+850)
Argentina (+950)
Germany (+1400)
Netherlands (+1600)
Belgium (+2200)
Norway (+3500)
Colombia (+4000)
Spain
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Spain sits in a very comfortable position to win Group H.
La Roja are priced at -425 (bet $425 to win $100) to take first place from a quartet that also includes Uruguay, Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia.
Uruguay is the biggest threat to Spain's potential dominance in Group H. The two sides meet on Matchday 3 in Mexico, likely for the Group H crown.
Spain is expected to roll through its other two opponents. Cape Verde is making its first World Cup appearance and Saudi Arabia conceded 12 times in six games at the last two World Cups.
Sure, anything is possible, like Saudi Arabia upsetting Argentina in the 2022 group stage, but the Saudis are more of a known commodity this time around and won't catch Spain off guard.
Spain is loaded in attack with Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo and Ferran Torres from Barcelona and Mikel Oyarzabal of Real Sociedad, who has 24 goals in 52 international appearances.
The Spaniards will control possession in every game. They'll have an abundance of chances as well, which makes them a candidate to score the most goals in the group stage.
Uruguay has less consistency in attack with Darwin Nunez. The 26-year-old forward has 13 goals in 38 international appearances, but he was infamous at Liverpool for being a streaky forward that is capable of missing key chances.
Spain has far more depth and quality in the final third than Uruguay, which is why it is a -155 money-line favorite against the South American side.
That's the easiest single-game line to chase since Spain is an overwhelming favorite against Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia. Multi-goal victories are expected in both of those games.
Spain should emerge with nine points from the three games and a spot in the round of 32 against the Group J runner-up, which will likely be Austria or Algeria.
Argentina
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Argentina probably shouldn't be the sixth favorite on the odds board.
After all, this is the reigning champion with Lionel Messi still on its roster.
You could make a case that the Albiceleste is better suited to win in 2026 because the pressure has been lifted off Messi's shoulders.
Argentina should get off to a flying start in Group J against Austria, Algeria and Jordan.
Argentina is a -290 favorite to win Group J. That number is probably too low given the gap in quality between the Argentines and the rest of the group.
The entire Argentina roster is littered with experience. If Messi isn't scoring, Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez likely are. The three have 167 international goals between them.
Argentina topped the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying standings with 12 wins and a +21 goal differential.
The expectation is for more high-scoring performances and potentially the best goal differential of any group winner.
There's always a surprise at the World Cup, but Argentina might be the team most immune to an upset because it suffered one in the group stage against Saudi Arabia in 2022 and there's so much experience throughout the squad.
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France
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France has arguably the best roster in the 48-team field.
Kylian Mbappe is the headliner, but there's also Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele and Desire Doue in attack.
France could easily score multiple goals in every one of its Group I matches against Norway, Senegal and Iraq.
Les Bleus currently sit at -210 to win the group. The price carries some respect for AFCON finalist Senegal and a Norway squad with Erling Haaland.
However, France is a -230 money-line favorite against Senegal and a -125 favorite versus Norway.
France might not blow out its opponents, like Spain and Argentina, but it should finish first in its group.
Haaland is a known quantity to most of the French defenders, so there will be a game plan in place to slow down the Norwegian. Norway also does not have the vast World Cup experience that France does.
Senegal could be tricky, but the Lions of Teranga just conceded three times to the United States in a friendly and lost to Brazil in a November tune-up friendly. Those results aren't great signs for how it could handle a much more talented France roster.
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