Predicting Hot, Cold and Mild Starts for Every NFL Team After 2026 Schedule Release

Only the NFL can turn even relatively trivial matters into made-for-TV extravaganzas. Such is the case for the league's schedule release, which has become (like all things NFL) a media event.

Now that the schedule is out and we know not only who the league's teams will be playing but when they will be playing them, the 2026 season is coming that much more into focus. We know which teams got a cakewalk of a schedule and which teams will be walking the green mile this year. Which teams could finish strong. And which teams have a great chance to come roaring out of the gate.

It's the latter we're going to focus on here—the first month of the 2026 season. Which teams will get off to a start so spicy it makes a Carolina Reaper pepper sweat. Which teams are going to be absolutely frigid to begin the campaign. And who will fall somewhere in-between.

AFC East

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Bills QB Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills: Mild

The Bills are a good enough team on paper to overcome a brutal beginning to the 2026 schedule, but Josh Allen and Co. will have their work cut out for them to open the season. The good news in Buffalo is that three of the Bills' first four games are at shiny new Highmark Stadium. The bad news is that three of the first four games (and four of the first five) are against 2025 playoff teams, beginning with a Week 1 trip to Houston.

Miami Dolphins: Cold

Most pundits expect the 2026 season to be a long one in Miami, and the early portion of the schedule didn't do the team any favors. The season opener in Las Vegas against the Raiders could be a winnable game, But the Dolphins will be decided underdogs in San Francisco and Minnesota and at home against the Chiefs. Anything better than 1-3 to start things off will be a pleasant surprise.

New England Patriots: Cold

The Patriots won 14 games last year in part due to a last-place schedule, but the Pats will receive no such benefit in 2026. Starting with a trip to Seattle for a Super Bowl LX rematch to kick off the season, the Patriots face four straight 2025 playoff teams to open the season. As if that wasn't tough enough, three of those games are on the road, including trips to Seattle, Jacksonville and Buffalo.

New York Jets: Cold

It's not exactly breaking news to say that the New York Jets will be a bad team in 2026, and Gang Green will probably be 1-3 at best four games into the season. A season-opening trip to Nashville to face the Titans is their best bet for a win in September, but after that the Jets host the Green Bay Packers and take a tour of the NFC North with back-to-back road games against the Lions and Chicago Bears.

NFC East

AP Photo/Terrance Williams

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts

Dallas Cowboys: Mild

This is the time of year when fans of the Dallas Cowboys are awash with hope and anticipation, and that hope could ratchet up even more if the team wins matchups with NFC East opponents New York and Washington to start the season. The first month of the season becomes decidedly harder after that—Dallas faces the Baltimore Ravens in Brazil in Week 3 before a trip across Texas to take on the Houston Texans in Week 4.

New York Giants: Hot

How the Giants start off the 2026 season will hinge largely on how they fare at home against the Cowboys in the first Sunday night affair of the season. A trip to Los Angeles to face the rams in Week 2 looks like a loss, but after that the schedule gets softer than a fresh Krispy Kreme donut—the Giants face four straight opponents who won less than six games in 2025, and three of those contests are at Met Life Stadium.

Philadelphia Eagles: Hot

Quarterback Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have to be relatively happy with how the early portion of the schedule shook out. Yes, the Eagles face a pir of stout opponents in Weeks 3 and 4 when they head to Soldier Field to take on the Bears and host the Rams. But if they can split that pair the Eagles should be looking at 3-1 given that they open at home against the Washington Commanders before traveling to Tennessee in Week 2.

Washington Commanders: Cold

The Commanders are trying to shake off the stink of a five-win faceplant in 2025, and the early-season schedule isn't going to make that any easier. A Week 1 trip to Philly and Week 3 home date with the reigning Super Bowl champions are both tough matchups, and a Week 2 trip to face the Cowboys and Week 4 tilt with the Indianapolis Colts in London are hardly gimme victories.

AFC North

AP Photo/Matt Ludtke

Ravens RB Derrick Henry

Baltimore Ravens: Hot

Running back Derrick Henry and the Ravens have a chance to start the season on quite the rip. The Ravens don't play a team that had a winning record last season until a Week 8 matchup with the Buffalo Bills. The first month of the season is mostly a cakewalk—heading overseas to take on the Cowboys is at least something of a challenge, but a road trip to Indianapolis and home games with the Saints and Titans all appear winnable.

Cincinnati Bengals: Mild

The Cincinnati Bengals are trying to make the playoffs for the first time since 2022 this year, but to do so the team is going to have to come out of the gate firing. The season opener at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the "easiest" matchup of the campaign's first month, and that is followed by three straight against playoff teams from a year ago—road tilts with the Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers and a home date with the Jaguars.

Cleveland Browns: Cold

The Cleveland Browns have long been a tomato can in the AFC North, and if the early part of the schedule is any indication, the team should try to work a sponsorship deal with Hunt's. The Browns are already a touchdown underdog against the Jaguars on the road in Week 1, and after that comes another game in Florida against the Buccaneers before hosting two playoff teams in the Carolina Panthers and Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Mild

We'll work under the assumption here that Aaron Rodgers is going to be the Steelers' starting quarterback in 2026. With that being the case, the Steelers will likely look a lot like their 2025 iteration—a nine or 10-win team. Pittsburgh's Week 2 matchup at Gillette Stadium looks like a loss. A Week 4 trip to Cleveland looks like a win. That means Pittsburgh needs a split between the Falcons in Week 1 and Bengals in Week 3 (both at home) to start the season 2-2.

NFC North

AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

Bears QB Caleb Williams

Chicago Bears: Hot

In terms of opponent winning percentage in 2025, the Bears have the most difficult schedule in the NFL this year, but the early-going is manageable. The team's two most difficult games over the first four weeks are at home against the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles, while trips to Carolina and New York (Jets) should be winnable contests. Things get harder from there, but a 3-1 start is doable.

Detroit Lions: Hot

The Lions started the season hot last year, winning four straight after a Week 1 loss to the Green Bay Packers. A repeat this year is well within reach—a Week 2 trip to Buffalo is a daunting challenge, but that is Detroit's only game before their Week 6 bye that features an opponent with a winning record. The Lions also get two tomato cans early—the Jets at home in Week 3 and at Arizona in Week 5.

Green Bay Packers: Hot

The NFC North has the makings of a true brouhaha this year, and most of the teams in the division have to potential to start the season strong. The Packers only have one true "gimme" game over the first month—a Week 2 trip to Met Life Stadium to take on the Jets. But the Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are all winnable games—none of those teams made the postseason last year.

Minnesota Vikings: Mild

The key to the start of the Kyler Murray era (He's starting at quarterback. You know it. I know it.) will be surviving the first couple games of the season—NFC North tilts at home against the Packers and at the division champion Chicago Bears. Get past that, and the road gets exponentially easier—the Vikings are at Tampa, at home against the woeful Dolphins and at New Orleans. A 3-2 record when the bye arrives is a reasonable expectation.

AFC South

AP Photo/Maria Lysaker

Texans EDGE Will Anderson Jr.

Houston Texans: Mild

The Houston Texans were a 12-win playoff team last year despite starting the season 0-3, but this year things should get off to a better start in 2026. Facing the Bills at home in Week 1 is a daunting beginning, but after that comes three games against teams with losing records last year—the Bengals at home, at the Colts and home against Dallas. Houston may drop one of those contests, but at least a 2-2 beginning should be doable.

Indianapolis Colts: Cold

The Indianapolis Colts have a major question mark under center entering the 2026 season, and if Daniel Jones isn't ready for Week 1 the Colts could be in trouble early. The season begins with three difficult opponents—the Ravens at home followed by the Chiefs at Arrowhead and the first of two meetings with the Texans. Even the most winnable game of the early slate is a toss-up—the Colts head across The Pond to face the Commanders in London in Week 4.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Cold

The Jacksonville Jaguars are the defending champions of the AFC South, but a repeat isn't going to be easy—because the early part of the schedule is brutal. Opening the season at home against the Browns should equate to a win, but then comes a gauntlet that lasts all the way to Jacksonville's Week 7 bye. The Jaguars face both AFC title game participants from a year ago in the Broncos and Patriots before a trip to Cincinnati and a pair of London games against 2025 playoff teams in the Eagles and Texans. Hitting that bye at .500 would be an achievement.

Tennessee Titans: Cold

The Tennessee Titans are in a similar position as the Jaguars, except for the whole being a good team thing. The season opener at home against the woeful Jets is a winnable contest, but after that things tighten up considerably—the Titans host the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2 before heading to New York to take on the Giants and heading to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. If the Titans don't get past the Jets, an 0-4 start is a frighteningly plausible possibility.

NFC South

AP Photo/George Walker IV

Saints WR Chris Olave

Atlanta Falcons: Mild

There re a number of changes in Atlanta this year. There's a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski. A quarterback battle brewing between Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa. The Falcons kick off the season with a schedule that is neither gravy nor graveyard—while three of Atlanta's first four games are against playoff teams from last year, two of those matchups (the Steelers and Panthers) are games the Falcons could win.

Carolina Panthers: Mild

The Carolina Panthers won the NFC South with an 8-9 record last year, and the first-place schedule the Panthers earned as a result is an issue for the team this year. Carolina had better be at least 2-2 when their Week 5 bye rolls around, because the post-bye slate in murderous—three of four after that bye are against playoff teams from a year ago. So, the Panthers need to notch two wins from four games vs. Chicago, at Atlanta, at Cleveland and home against Detroit.

New Orleans Saints: Cold

The New Orleans Saints got off to a miserable start last year, losing four straight to start the season and eight of nine. This year, the Saints will likely be 0-2 when they host the Raiders in Week 3 after traveling to first Detroit and then Baltimore. After that comes three in a row at home against the Raiders, Falcons and Vikings—if the Saints can't win two of those three matchups it's going to get late early in the Big Easy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mild

The Buccaneers started the 2025 campaign 6-2 before falling apart after the bye, and there's an avenue for a hot start to the 2026 season. But the Buccaneers could as easily by 1-3 after a month as 3-1. Tampa will be favored at home against the Browns in Week 2 and Vikings in Week 3. But they will be underdogs at Cincinnati in Week 1 and in Tampa against the Packers in Week 4. So, these Buccaneers will likely spend the first half of this season hovering around .500.

AFC West

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

Denver Broncos: Cold

The Broncos enter 2026 as one of the AFC's top contenders, but Bo Nix and Co. had better have their game faces on from the jump. The first six games of the 2026 slate are absolutely brutal—the team faces just one team over that span that didn't make the playoffs last year, and that's a Monday night affair with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to open the season. After that it's Jaguars, Rams, at San Francisco, at the Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle. Ouch.

Kansas City Chiefs: Hot

How the Chiefs start the season will depend largely on the health of Patrick Mahomes' surgically-repaired knee, but Kansas City's last-place schedule sets up well for a hot start. The toughest game of the first month of the season is that Monday-nighter against Denver, and that's at Arrowhead. After that comes three matchups the Chiefs should win—home against the Colts before hitting the road to face two bad teams in the Dolphins and Raiders.

Las Vegas Raiders: Mild

The Raiders had the worst record in the NFL last year, but there's room for at least a little optimism over the first month—divisional matchups with the Chargers and Chiefs are tough, but the Dolphins and Saints are hardly juggernauts. However, after that manageable first month, the bottom may well fall out in Sin City—assuming a loss to the Chiefs, at New England, Buffalo and the Rams after has the makings of a four-game skid.

Los Angeles Chargers: Mild

The Chargers made the postseason a year ago, and the Bolts should come out of the first month of the season no worse than 2-2 thanks to opening the season against two doormats in the Cardinals and Raiders. After that? Buckle up, son, because the ride gets bumpy—after that Week 2 date with the Raiders, the Chargers travel to first Buffalo and Seattle before a home date with the Broncos and a trip to Kansas City. That Week 7 bye is going to be welcomed, even if three more tough matchups follow.

NFC West

AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

Seahawks QB Sam Darnold

Arizona Cardinals: Cold

Listen, we all know that the Arizona Cardinals are probably in for a long season. But any hopes the Redbirds have of even a respectable season could be out the door by the time kids go Trick-or-Treating, and there's a legitimate chance this team starts 0-4. Arizona's first month of the season is just mean—a trip to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers (one of three road games over four weeks), followed by a home date with the Super Bowl champions and matchups with the 49ers and Giants—the latter on the East Coast at 1PM.

Los Angeles Rams: Mild

The Los Angeles Rams are one of the NFL's best teams on paper, but early in the season the Rams are going to have to earn wins. Opening the season in Australia against the San Francisco 49ers is a logistical nightmare, although a Week 2 Monday Night Football tilt with the Giants should offer something of a respite. That rest break isn't going to last long though—after the G-Men the Rams have to face the Broncos and Eagles on the road in back-to-back games.

San Francisco 49ers: Mild

Like the Rams, the San Francisco 49ers get the "privilege" of traveling halfway across the world to play in Australia. The Niners don't get an extra day off like Los Angeles the following week, but back-to-back home matchups with the Dolphins and Cardinals should both be wins. San Francisco then gets a third straight home game against a much stouter opponent in the Broncos before hitting the road for their first battle with the rival Seahawks.

Seattle Seahawks: Mild

It shouldn't be all that surprising that no NFC West team has an easy road to roaring out of the gate—the division sent three teams to the postseason a year ago. Seattle begins their title defense at home in a Super Bowl rematch with the New England Patriots before a less-than-daunting two-game road trip to Arizona and Washington. Then things get real—four games in five weeks against playoff teams from 2025, with the other contest a home tilt with the Chiefs.