Updated Expectations for 1st-Year Head Coaches Following the 2026 NFL Draft

The anticipation for the 2026 NFL season is finally beginning to build. The draft is firmly in the rear view, mandatory minicamps are mere weeks away, and the regular-season schedule is slated to drop next Thursday.

At this point, it's safe to close the book on the 2025 campaign and look ahead for what's next. For the 10 NFL franchises that hired new head coaches in the offseason, what's next will include a fair amount of unknowns.

These teams made coaching changes because, in one way or another, they fell short of expectations in 2025. Some were flat-out bad, while others, like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills, experienced troubling letdowns in the postseason.

What are realistic expectations for these teams with first-year head coaches in 2026? With the draft complete, let's take an updated look.

Arizona Cardinals: Mike LaFleur

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

Realistic Expectation: 6-11

Former Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur joined the rival Arizona Cardinals as one of the last hires of the 2026 cycle. He inherited a team that won just three games the previous season.

Arizona didn't take major steps to revamp a defense that ranked 27th overall in 2025. However, they took steps to reload an offense that has been brimming with potential but lacking in results.

First, the Cardinals cut ties with Kyler Murray and brought in Gardner Minshew and rookie third-round pick Carson Beck to compete with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. The Cardinals also addressed their offensive line by adding Isaac Seumalo, Elijah Wilkerson, and rookie second-round pick Chase Bisontis.

If Arizona's QB competition yields a functional starter, the Cardinals could be more potent offensively than most expect.

General manager Monti Ossenfort snapped up Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love with the third overall pick, adding a do-it-all playmaker and new offensive centerpiece in the process.

"Love is a dynamic and explosive running back who possesses the skill set to be a complete weapon in an NFL offense," Dame Parson of the B/R Scouting Department wrote of Love.

The rookie back joins a skill group that already boasted Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Tre McBride. With LaFleur bringing a creative offensive mind to the proverbial table, the Cardinals should be able to steal a few more games than they did a year ago.

Atlanta Falcons: Kevin Stefanski

AP PhotoMike Stewart

Realistic Expectation: 9-8

Kevin Stefanski was one of the first head coaches hired this offseason, which was unsurprising considering he managed to take the lowly Cleveland Browns to the playoffs in two of his six seasons with the club.

There's a very real chance that Stefanski will help Atlanta get into the playoffs this year. After all, the Falcons matched the NFC South's best record at 8-9 last season—though they lost the division to the Carolina Panthers due to divisional record and tiebreakers.

Atlanta wasn't particularly active in free agency, and it landed a smaller rookie class after trading its first-round pick away in last year's deal to acquire edge-rusher James Pearce Jr. However, the Falcons flashed enough talent last year to suggest they would have been a playoff team with more consistently dependable quarterback play.

The Falcons went 5-3 with Kirk Cousins behind center.

Ideally, the looming QB competition—primarily between Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa, though Trevor Siemian may also be in the mix—will deliver a dependable starter.

"We don't really know what to expect at the beginning of training camp," Falcons president Matt Ryan told 680 The Fan (h/t Nick Shook of NFL.com). "...I think the way both those guys have started the offseason, I think, will put us in a good spot."

New additions like Jahan Dotson, Jawaan Taylor, and Avieon Terrell should help. However, better coaching and improved quarterback play will be the keys to improving upon last year's record.

Baltimore Ravens: Jesse Minter

AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough

Realistic Expectation: 12-5

After going 12-5 in 2024 and 13-4 the previous season, the Baltimore Ravens stumbled to an 8-9 record in 2025. Bad defense and some uncharacteristically inefficient play by quarterback Lamar Jackson led to the disappointing campaign and the dismissal of longtime head coach John Harbaugh.

Jackson's back and hamstring injuries certainly didn't help matters this past season. If he's healthier in 2026, the offense will be more potent. The hiring of former Los Angeles Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter should help address things on the other side of the ball.

"This is a really smart guy who treats people the right way, who is a very skilled football coach who I believe will be wildly successful in Baltimore," Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea, who employed Minter in 2021, told Glenn Clark Radio (h/t Kevin Eck of the Ravens' official website.

While Baltimore lost key contributors like Tyler Linderbaum and Isaiah Likely in free agency, incoming players like Trey Henrickson,  Olaivavega Ioane, and Zion Young should have a notable early impact.

Minter will have to do some work to improve a defense that ranked 24th overall last season, but even a modest improvement should put the Ravens back in the playoff conversation. If Jackson can return to the MVP-caliber form he showed in 2024 and 2025, Baltimore should be back in the Super Bowl conversation, too.

Buffalo Bills: Joe Brady

AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes

Realistic Expectation: 12-5

The Bills fired head coach Sean McDermott after he posted a 12-5 record but lost to the Denver Broncos in a divisional-round overtime disappointment. However, Buffalo didn't shake things up substantially, opting instead to promote offensive coordinator Joe Brady to be McDermott's replacement.

It would appear that Terry Pegula's plan is to maintain offensive continuity around quarterback Josh Allen and hope that Brady can get better postseason results than McDermott did. Of course, that will be easier in theory than in practice for a coordinator-turned-head-coach.

"I would say this about anyone who's never done the job before, with all due respect to Joe in this case—it's a different job," McDermott told NFL Network's The Insiders. "We can prepare all we want, having gone through it myself. But it's a different job than any job that leads to that job."

The good news is that Brady may have an easier transition after spending the last four years with the franchise.

Brady will also be aided by a roster that, on paper, is more complete than what Buffalo offered in 2025. The Bills traded for wideout D.J. Moore, added pass-rusher Bradley Chubb, and drafted potential rookie contributors like pass-rusher T.J. Parker, cornerback Davison Igbinosun, and receiver Skyler Bell.

Plenty will hinge on Brady's ability to make the jump from coordinator to coach. Unless he falls completely flat or Allen fails to stay healthy for the vast majority of the season, however, the Bills should stand a good chance of at least replicating last year's record.

Cleveland Browns: Todd Monken

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Realistic Expectation: 5-12

The Browns fired Stefanski after he delivered just eight wins over the last two seasons. However, it's fair to wonder if Stefanski was fairly scapegoated, considering the team's instability at quarterback and the other glaring holes Cleveland had offensively.

To replace Stefanski, the Browns hired former Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Cleveland hired the former division rival over defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, which led to the respected coach's departure.

While new defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg isn't expected to implement notable schematic changes, it's fair to wonder if Cleveland's defense will remain an upper-echelon unit without Schwartz.

Offensively, GM Andrew Berry did take steps to improve the biggest non-QB deficiencies. He added linemen Zion Johnson, Elgton Jenkins, and Tytus Howard before drafting tackle Spencer Fano, receiver Kevin Concepcion, and wideout Denzel Boston. Unfortunately, a huge question mark remains at quarterback, where Deshaun Watson appears to have the edge over second-year QBs Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel.

"Watson emerged from the Browns' voluntary minicamp last week with an edge over Shedeur Sanders in the two-man quarterback competition—and has the inside track to be named the Browns QB1, sources tell cleveland.com," Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com wrote.

Given what we've seen from Watson as a member of the Browns, it'll be hard to have high expectations in Cleveland. And with Watson emerging as the early front-runner, it's fair to wonder if the Browns will be trying to win in 2026 or if they're setting the table for a 2027 QB target.

Las Vegas Raiders: Klint Kubiak

AP Photo/Ian Maule

Realistic Expectation: 7-10

After seeming to whiff at every turn in 2025, the Las Vegas Raiders have seemed to do everything right this offseason.

Hiring former Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak was a terrific move, not only because he brings Super Bowl experience, but also because he is one of the league's top young offensive minds.

The Raiders then made strategically sound additions in free agency, like Tyler Linderbaum, Nakobe Dean, Quay Walker, and Kirk Cousins. Las Vegas even managed to smooth things over with star edge-defender Maxx Crosby after his trade to the Ravens was nixed by a failed physical.

As expected, the Raiders then made Fernando Mendoza their quarterback of the future.

Things in Las Vegas will look drastically different this year, both in terms of personnel and culture. That will be true even if Cousins manages to keep Mendoza on the sideline all season—which is a very real possibility.

"What they would like, best case, is that Fernando Mendoza waits, watches, and learns while Cousins plays this year," Ian Rapoport said on NFL Network during the draft (beginning at the 35-second mark).

Regardless of which quarterback starts for most of the season, the Raiders will be markedly better in 2026. A brutal AFC West may prevent Las Vegas from pushing for the postseason, but the Raiders are poised to double their 2025 win total at a minimum.

Miami Dolphins: Jeff Hafley

AP Photo/Jim Rassol

Realistic Expectation: 4-13

As the former Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator, new Miami Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley knows how a stable and successful organization should look. Unfortunately, Hafley isn't likely to experience much sustained success during his first year as a head coach.

The Dolphins spent most of the offseason tearing things down. Not only did they jettison former "franchise" quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but they also cut Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb before trading wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. While they did add intriguing dual-threat quarterback Malik Willis, the Dolphins lack a strong core and star power.

"They had no roster, no players," an unnamed NFL executive said, per The Athletic's Mike Sando. "That's why they drafted 13 players (most in the league). They have to do it with all young guys."

Miami did add a massive draft class, and rookies like Kadyn Proctor, Chris Johnson, and Jacob Rodriguez should contribute immediately. However, adding a first-time head coach and a quarterback with six career starts to a roster heavily reliant on inexperienced players is not the way to stack early wins.

The Dolphins will have a hard time even sniffing last year's 7-10 record, though, winning won't be their primary goal. This season will be all about getting a read on Willis' ceiling and developing rookie talent before focusing on what is expected to be a 2027 draft class loaded with quarterbacks.

New York Giants: John Harbaugh

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

Realistic Expectation: 9-8

When the Ravens fired John Harbaugh, he immediately became the head-coaching prize of the 2026 NFL offseason. The New York Giants won the Harbaugh sweepstakes, pairing a Super Bowl-winning head coach with a roster that showed promise in 2025.

New York won just four games in 2025, but then-rookie Jaxson Dart showed flashes of being a franchise quarterback. The season-ending injuries suffered by Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo likely hindered Dart's development, but he should have both in 2026.

Harbaugh told reporters in early April that Skattebo could be back before training camp, while Nabers could return around the start of the regular season:

"Malik is going to be more into training camp and closer to the season. That's more Malik's timeline," Harbaugh said, per Jeremy Brener of SI.com.

In addition to Harbaugh, the Giants added several notable players in the early offseason, including Isaiah Likely, Darnell Mooney, D.J. Reader, Shelby Harris, and Greg Newsome II. They also added instant-impact rookies in Arvell Reese and Francis Mauigoa.

The competition in the NFC East will be stiff, especially if the Washington Commanders can stay healthy and reenter the playoff conversation.

The Philadelphia Eagles have won back-to-back division titles, while the Dallas Cowboys dramatically improved a defense that kept them out of the postseason race in 2025. Even with Harbaugh running the show, New York may be a long shot for a division title. However, it wouldn't be a shock to see the Giants earn a wild-card berth.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike McCarthy

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Realistic Expectation: 9-8

Longtime head coach Mike Tomlin decided to step down following Pittsburgh's blowout loss in the wild-card round. To replace him, the Steelers hired former Packers and Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy.

McCarthy was a fairly sensible hire for a couple of reasons. For one, he's an offensive coach who should get more out of a unit that ranked 25th overall last season. Secondly, he has a history with Aaron Rodgers, who is still widely expected to return and be Pittsburgh's starting QB this season—though the team continues to play the waiting game.

"I don't know where, specifically, Aaron is," general manager Omar Khan told You Better, You Bet (h/t CBS Sports' John Breech).

If Rodgers doesn't return, it'll be Mason Rudolph, Will Howard, or rookie third-round pick Drew Allar at quarterback. Expectations should be lowered if one or more of them start double-digit games in 2026.

Even with Rodgers, the Steelers probably aren't Super Bowl contenders. Even winning the AFC North will prove difficult, as Baltimore and the Cincinnati Bengals both appear poised to rebound. However, Pittsburgh added a few notable pieces who should keep it in the playoff mix.

With Jaquan Brisker, Jamel Dean, Michael Pittman Jr., Max Iheanachor, and Germie Bernard in the fold, the Steelers have a more complete roster, on paper, than they had in 2025. Assuming Rodgers is the Week 1 starter, Pittsburgh should come close to matching last year's win total.

Tennessee Titans: Robert Saleh

AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Realistic Expectation: 6-11

Like many teams did this offseason, the Tennessee Titans hired a retreat coach. However, Robert Saleh doesn't bring the same sense of optimism as some other coaching hires.

Saleh compiled a 20-36 record as the New York Jets head coach. That doesn't mean he can't be a successful head coach—plenty of good coaches have struggled in New York—but fans expected a quick turnaround should brace themselves for disappointment.

Tennessee hasn't had a winning season since 2021. While then-rookie Cam Ward showed glimpses of being a franchise quarterback this past season, the rest of the Titans' roster was one of the most underwhelming in the league. And while GM Mike Borgonzi added some notable pieces in Jermaine Johnson II, John Franklin-Myers, Alontae Taylor, and Wan'Dale Robinson in free agency, the roster still leaves plenty to be desired.

At least the selection of Carnell Tate fourth overall in the draft should help bolster Ward's development significantly.

"Here is a guy (Tate) that is never going to screw up," one executive told The Athletic's Mike Sando. "He is a guy you are going to want on a second contract. They have had horrible receivers there for a decade-plus."

Ward's development should be the primary focus of Tennessee's 2026 season. The Titans should benefit from one of the league's easier schedules (.476), but they're at least a year away from playoff contention.