6 Rookie Contract Players Set to Go from Bust to Breakout in 2026

"Bust."

It's the word that no team wants to hear associated with a first-round pick. It's a word that no player wants to have associated with the early stages of their career. And it's a word that fans throw around like the world's angriest frisbee.

The reasons why players bust are as varied as the positions on a football team. Some play positions where there is a steep learning curve. Others are a victim of a weak supporting cast—the earlier a player is drafted, the worse the team drafting him usually is. Others still struggle with injuries early in their career.

Whatever the reason, those players have a four-year window (or five if the fifth-year option on their rookie deals are picked up) to shake off that bust label. To wreak havoc on the football field and live up to their draft-day asking price.

For some, that breakout never happens—they continue to struggle and relegated to the bust bin for all time. But others shake off a slow start and go from disappointing starter to burgeoning star.

That's what is going to happen with these young players in 2026.

QB Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman

With Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, "bust" may be a relative concept. Young led the Panthers to an NFC South title last year, and the Panthers have already exercised the fifth-year option on the first pick in 2023.

But Young has hardly been a star. Three years into his career, Young has lost over twice as many starts as he's won. He barely cleared 3,000 passing yards last season. And his career passer rating of 80.9 would have ranked 32nd in the league in 2025.

With all that said, Young also heads into the 2026 campaign with the best team around him of his career, whether it's the skill-position talent or the offensive line in front of him. And while appearing on Good Morning Football, Isaiah Stanback said that he expects a massive leap forward from Young in his fourth season.

"He's now acclimated to this Dave Canales system," Stanback said. "You talk about somebody who has continually improved their game, obviously he's been through it, where he was the starter, they benched him for Andy Dalton, he earned the starting job back. Everybody always knocks him for his size, but you can't knock him for his tenacity, you can't knock him for his mentality... this dude is doing a heck of a job of improving as a quarterback... it's only going to get better for this young man."

Familiarity with the offense. Better passing game targets. Improved blocking. Everything Young needs to take that next step is there.

And he has hundreds of millions of reasons to take it.

EDGE Abdul Carter, New York Giants

AP Photo/John Locher

Calling a player a "bust" after just one season may come off as a bit harsh. But when an edge-rusher is drafted in the top-five and has half as many benchings as sacks as a rookie that is—not ideal.

Such was the case with New York Giants edge-rusher Abdul Carter as a rookie—he managed just four sacks and was sat down twice for disciplinary reasons.

While addressing the media, Giants general manager Joe Choen said that Carter's issues are in the past—and that he expects far bigger and better things in 2026.

"Abdul is a young man that's 22 years old, that's smart and understands the magnitude of his actions and also understands what it means to be a pro," Schoen said. "And these kids are (young), and they're thrust into the spotlight in New York City and it's not always going to be perfect. People make mistakes. Nobody's perfect. Part of our job is to develop them as football players, but also as people and we will continue to do that with everybody in this organization."

The lightbulb appeared to come on for Carter later in his first season—3.5 of his four sacks came over a four-game span from Week 13 to Week 17. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Carter also led the NFL in "quick pressures" (under 2.5 seconds) in 2025.

The Giants added Arvell Reese this year to a pass rush that already included reigning NFC sack king Brian Burns, so Carter isn't going to see a ton of double-teams.

The table is set—and Carter is going to flip it over and lead Big Blue in sacks this year.

That's right—I said it.

WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals

AP Photo/Julio Cortez

When Marvin Harrison Jr. was drafted fourth overall in 2024, he was viewed by many as a can't-miss pick. A sure-fire star in the making. Some even regarded him as the No. 1 player overall in his draft class.

Results through two professional seasons have been disappointing at best. Harrison's numbers were OK as a rookie—62 catches for 885 yards and eight touchdowns. But his second season was a mess—five missed games, 41 receptions, 608 receiving yards and four scores.

Those aren't top-five pick numbers. Or even Round 1 numbers.

Given that slow start, there has been no shortage of grumbling about Harrison in the desert. But while speaking to reporters, new Arizona head coach Mike LaFleur said that he remains confident Harrison can live up to his draft slot.

"I just see him working every day," LaFleur said. "Every day, and like I've told him numerous times, I'm just excited to work with him, because he wants to be worked with. So, there's a lot in that body, and you guys have seen it, and it's our job to unlock it and you know his job to meet us halfway."

The quarterback situation isn't ideal in Arizona. But whether it's Jacoby Brissett or Carson Beck under center, at least they can see over the middle of the field—so Harrison won't constantly be running "go" routes on the outside.

Michael Wilson's 2025 breakout aside, Harrison didn't suddenly forget how to play football when he got to Arizona. And with Wilson opposite him at wideout and the great Trey McBride at tight end, Harrison is going to see a lot of single coverage in 2026.

And that's going to pave the way for a third season that looks like folks expected the first one to.

EDGE Myles Murphy, Cincinnati Bengals

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Cincinnati Bengals edge-rusher Myles Murphy is actually coming off the best season of his career—he paced the Bengals with 5.5 sacks in 2025. But the team elected not to exercise the fifth-year option on the 28th overall pick in 2023, which would appear to indicate that things haven't gone according to plan.

For his part, Murphy told reporters that he isn't sweating the Bengals passing on the option—or the fact he's now heading into a contract year.

"Very hopeful," Murphy said. "I love the city. They love me, and that's all a player can ask for. Security, and just knowing that you're wanted. And I really do appreciate that. I appreciate everyone in the organization and my teammates and coaches. The fifth-year [option] wasn't there, but that's not for me to worry about. I'm here to play football with my teammates. I'm here to be out there, blood, sweat, and tears with my guys, and just appreciate the opportunity to just come back and just play with my guys."

Murphy will be playing on a vastly different line in 2026. Veteran edge-rusher Trey Hendrickson is gone, replaced by free agent addition Boye Mafe. The Bengals also added a pair of defensive tackles with Pro Bowls on their NFL resumes in Jonathan Allen and Dexter Lawrence.

That assemblage of talent is going to make it hard for opponents to double anyone on that front consistently. Shemar Stewart and rookie Cashius Howell will challenge for snaps, but that motivation, the talent around him and last year's success will combine to form the fuel for a career year from the 24-year-old.

At which point the Bengals will wish they had picked up that fifth-year option.

WR Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/John Froschauer

To say that Ricky Pearsall's NFL career got off to a rocky start is a whopper of an understatement. After being selected with the penultimate selection of Round 1 in 2024, Pearsall was shot in the chest during a robbery attempt just before the regular season began.

The larger problem is that things actually got worse from there. Pearsall played 11 games as a rookie, hauling in 31 passes for 400 yards and three scores. In 2025, Pearsall missed even more time and failed to find the end zone.

They say the best ability is availability, and ex-Niners safety Donte Whitner told reporters that it's critical Pearsall stay on the field in 2026.

"Last year coming into the season and healed up from the gunshot wound: PCL, knee injury, ankle, inconsistency and a lack of availability," Whitner said. "That's Year 2. Now we did see him flash. We did see his ability to separate. We did see him make plays, but we didn't see it when it counted. Now you go into Year 3. If Ricky Pearsall misses around 50% of the availability in the games this year, I can say that it's probably over for the perception of Ricky Pearsall developing into a number one wide receiver in Kyle Shanahan's offense."

However, it's not like free-agent additions Mike Evans and Christian Kirk don't have injury issues of their own—the veteran duo combined to miss 13 games last year. Even with Evans and Kirk out there, Pearsall should not only see targets with George Kittle's early-season availability in question, but will see them in single coverage. Those flashes Whitner mentioned were almost 15 yards per reception in 2026.

Pearsall has been written off in many circles. But there's a legitimate scenario where Pearsall has far and away the best season of his career this year.

EDGE Nolan Smith Jr., Philadelphia Eagles

AP Photo/Terrance Williams

Regardless of what happens in 2026 with Philadelphia Eagles edge-rusher Nolan Smith Jr., he'll be back with the team in 2027—the Eagles exercised the fifth-year options on both of their first-round picks in 2023.

Still, after an injury-marred 2025 season in which Smith was out-performed by Jalyx Hunt, there are questions about Smith's role with the team this year, especially after the Eagles acquired Jonathan Greenard in a draft-day trade.

However, Glenn Erby of Eagles Wire posited that Greenard's arrival could actually be a good thing for Smith's 2026 prospects.

"A solid run defender and explosive pass rusher," he said, "Smith missed seven games in 2025, logging 31 tackles, 3 sacks, one forced fumble, 33 QB pressures, 24 QB hurries, and a 67.7 PFF grade in 12 games. His 5th-year option has been exercised, and the Eagles didn't draft another edge rusher after landing Jonathan Greenard."

The snaps are going to be there for Smith, Greenard or no—Greenard had his own down year in 2025—just three sacks in 12 games with the Minnesota Vikings. Back in the long-ago days of 2024, Smith posted 42 tackles and 6.5 sacks and added a team-leading four more in the postseason—including an eight-tackle, two-sack effort in the Wild Card Round.

A three-man rotation of Greenard, Smith and Hunt should help keep all three pass-rushers fresh—it's a staple of the Howie Roseman Eagles. A healthy Smith has the highest ceiling of the trio.

Smith is going to hit that ceiling (or at least come close), leading the team in sacks on the way to the first Pro Bowl of his career.

Book it.