7 Early Predictions for the 2026 NHL Draft
The NHL's annual Draft Lottery was held on Tuesday, May 5, involving the 16 teams that failed to qualify for the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Once the lottery balls had bounced, it was the Toronto Maple Leafs that emerged as the winner of the first-overall pick. It provided a ray of hope for the Maple Leafs and their fans after a disappointing season in which their nine-year playoff streak ended.
It remains to be seen what the Maple Leafs intend to do with that pick. That will be among several notable decisions that could be made during the draft weekend on June 26 and 27 at KeyBank Arena in Buffalo.
The draft weekend usually sees activity in the trade market as some established players are moved. It's also possible that some noteworthy pending free agents re-sign with their teams during that period.
Follow along as we make some predictions for what we anticipate will take place during the next month's NHL Draft weekend.
Some First-Round Picks Could Be Shopped for Immediate Help
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It's not unusual for teams to swap picks during each of the seven rounds during an NHL draft. It's often done by teams wishing to move up or down in the draft order to improve their chances of landing certain prospects that they may be keen to select.
Those picks are also sometimes bundled in a trade package to acquire an established player to provide more immediate help to their roster. If a team is willing to include a first-round pick, it can improve its chances of getting that player.
Seven teams in this year's draft have more than one pick in the first round. They could retain one of those picks to select a promising prospect, and use one or more of the extra picks as trade bait to add an NHL player to their rosters next season.
The St. Louis Blues have three first-round picks in this year's draft, while the Calgary Flames, New York Rangers, San Jose Sharks, Seattle Kraken, Vancouver Canucks, and Washington Capitals each have two first-rounders.
Those seven teams failed to make the playoffs this season and could be in the market for players to bolster their rosters for next season and beyond. They will be worth watching during the opening round of this year's draft.
Buffalo Sabres Will Sign Alex Tuch to a Contract Extension
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The Buffalo Sabres ended the longest playoff drought in NHL history this season, clinching their first postseason berth since 2010-11 by finishing first in the Atlantic Division with 109 points. They followed up with their first playoff series win since 2007 by eliminating the Boston Bruins in the opening round.
Alex Tuch played a significant role in the Sabres' march to the playoffs. He exceeded the 30-goal plateau (33) and exceeded 60 points (66) for the third time in four seasons. The 29-year-old power forward has been a reliable scorer and a leader on and off the ice.
Tuch is completing a seven-year contract with an average annual value of $4.8 million. He's eligible to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1 and will be seeking a substantial raise over his current salary.
Given this summer's thin UFA market, Tuch will be among the few notable stars available. On March 12, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reported the power forward's asking price could exceed $10 million annually. If the Sabres won't pay it, another club will.
With $13.2 million in projected salary-cap space and 21 active roster players under contract for 2026-27, the Sabres have the room to re-sign Tuch to a hefty raise. However, management could balk at paying him over $10 million, especially given that he's at the stage in his career when his value could decline in a few years.
However, the positive vibes that the Sabres are getting from their long-suffering fan base this season could convince them to re-sign Tuch. They might even be able to convince him to accept a little less to stay put. Having finally broken through as a playoff team, they won't risk losing a key player such as Tuch.
New York Rangers Will Trade Vincent Trocheck During the Draft
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The New York Rangers have been retooling their roster since last season. During that time, they've traded away such notable players as Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba, Chris Kreider, Kaapo Kakko, K'Andre Miller, and Reilly Smith.
Vincent Trocheck has been oft-rumored as the next player to go. The 33-year-old center was the subject of frequent trade speculation and sits atop our May NHL Trade Block Big Board. He's signed through 2027-28 with an affordable average annual salary of $5.63 million.
It was rumored that some Western Conference teams were interested in Trocheck before the March deadline. However, he prefers to remain in the Eastern Conference.
Rangers general manager Chris Drury set a high asking price for Trocheck before the trade deadline. No one was willing to pay it then, but with pickings slim in this summer's free-agent market, some clubs might be more willing to meet Drury's price, which is believed to include a young NHL-ready player.
Teams could wait until after July 1 to pursue Trocheck when his 12-team no-trade list becomes a 10-team list on July 1. However, there could be a club on his list of preferred destinations that might attempt to get the jump on everyone by acquiring him during the draft weekend.
Dallas Stars Will Make a Cost-Cutting Trade to Re-Sign Jason Robertson
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The Dallas Stars were considered Stanley Cup contenders this season after making three straight trips to the Western Conference Final. However, their first-round exit this year at the hands of the Minnesota Wild leaves general manager Jim Nill facing some big decisions this offseason.
Nill's biggest decision will be whether to re-sign Jason Robertson. The 26-year-old winger has been the Stars' leader in total goals (213), assists (276), and points (489 in 453 games) since his 2020-21 rookie season.
Robertson is completing a four-year contract and is slated to become a restricted free agent on July 1. He also has arbitration rights, which could result in a one-year deal that takes him up to unrestricted free-agent eligibility next July.
Sitting first among Stars scorers this season with 96 points, Robertson is in line for a substantial raise from the $7.8 million average annual value of his current deal. He could seek something comparable to the $12 million annually that teammate Mikko Rantanen received on his eight-year contract.
The Stars have $11.1 million in projected salary-cap space for 2026-27 with 19 active players under contract. They must either free up some cap space or trade Robertson if he proves too expensive to re-sign, which would be a significant blow to their offense.
Nill has said he intends to sign Robertson. If he gets him under contract for under $12 million, he'll still have to free up space to become cap compliant. He could move a player lacking no-trade protection, such as Thomas Harley ($10.6 million annually) or Wyatt Johnston ($8.5 million), but they're also valuable core players.
Potential trade candidates could include veteran center Matt Duchene ($4.5 million) if he agrees to waive his no-movement clause. Other options include defenseman Ilya Lyabushkin ($3.3 million), blueliner Tyler Myers ($1.5 million), forward Radek Faksa ($2 million), or Sam Steel ($2.1 million).
Montréal Canadiens Mystery Deal Will Be Finalized
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The 2026 NHL trade deadline passed without the Montréal Canadiens making any additions. General manager Kent Hughes said his club was working on a significant trade but couldn't get it done at the deadline. Hughes added that he might revisit those talks this summer.
That prompted speculation over which player Hughes was pursuing. Centers Robert Thomas of the St. Louis Blues and Vincent Trocheck of the New York Rangers were mentioned as possible trade targets. Others claimed it was Toronto Maple Leafs winger Matthew Knies.
The conjecture faded into the background as the Canadiens finished fourth in the Eastern Conference with 106 points. It receded further as they eliminated the Tampa Bay Lightning from the first round, and are currently locked in a second-round series with the Buffalo Sabres.
Once the playoffs end, the rumors over Hughes' intentions for his roster will come to the fore among the team's followers. Given their rapid improvement from dead last in the overall standings four years ago, Hughes could shop around this summer for a trade that turns his team into a Stanley Cup contender.
Adding a reliable second-line center to skate alongside wunderkind Ivan Demidov could be Hughes' priority. The rumored interest in Knies suggests the addition of a scoring winger could also be on his wish list.
Hughes surprised the hockey world last June by acquiring puck-moving defenseman Noah Dobson from the New York Islanders and signing him to an eight-year contract extension. We predict he'll make another big move by revisiting that trade he was working on before the deadline.
Minnesota Wild Will Attempt Another Blockbuster Trade
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On Dec. 12, the Minnesota Wild stunned the hockey world by acquiring superstar defenseman Quinn Hughes from the Vancouver Canucks. In return, they gave up three promising young players in Marco Rossi, Zeev Buium, and Liam Öhgren, plus their 2026 first-round draft pick.
It was a bold move by Wild general manager Bill Guerin. He sacrificed four pieces of his club's future for one of the NHL's elite defensemen, who will be eligible for unrestricted free agency in July 2027. There's no guarantee the Wild can re-sign Hughes.
Nevertheless, the move paid off in the short term. Hughes meshed well on the Wild's first defense pairing with Brock Faber, netting 53 points in 48 games with his new club. He helped the Wild finish third in the Western Conference with 104 points and eliminate the Dallas Stars in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The Wild are currently battling with the league-leading Colorado Avalanche in the second round of the playoffs. Regardless of the postseason outcome for his club, Guerin could have another blockbuster move up his sleeve during the offseason.
Before the March trade deadline, it was rumored that Guerin was in the market for a center, linking the Wild to Vincent Trocheck of the New York Rangers. However, on March 16, Michael Russo of The Athletic speculated that Guerin could have a larger trade target in mind this summer.
Russo wondered if Guerin might pursue Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs or Brady Tkachuk of the Ottawa Senators. It's doubtful that either player will be available, but whoever Guerin targets, he has the salary-cap space and tradeable assets to make another big splash in the trade market.
Toronto Maple Leafs Trade the First Overall Pick
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This season was a difficult one for fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs. The club's nine-season playoff run ended. The hiring of former Arizona Coyotes general manager John Chayka as their new GM was met with skepticism, while the future of team captain Auston Matthews in Toronto became fodder for the rumor mill.
However, the pall of gloom that had descended over Leafs Nation was lifted when the draft lottery balls bounced the Maple Leafs' way, giving them the first-overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. It's already sparked debate amongst the club's followers over whether they'll select Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg.
Before the draft, Chris Johnston of The Athletic reported league sources said that Matthews wasn't sure if he'd return with the Maple Leafs in the fall. He believed the superstar center wanted to see meaningful improvement to the roster this summer through trades and free agency.
The Leafs winning the draft lottery could change Matthews' mind. However, using that pick to select McKenna or Stenberg doesn't mean either prospect will become the impact player that would reverse the Leafs' fortunes and ensure Matthews stays in Toronto beyond the end of his current contract.
Trading the first-overall pick as part of a package to a club for a return of an established young NHL star who could have a more immediate positive effect might be something that convinces Matthews to sign a contract extension next July.
The last time the first-overall pick in the NHL Draft was traded was in 2003, when the Pittsburgh Penguins acquired it from the Florida Panthers and used it to select future Hall of Fame goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury.
It won't be easy to find the type of established young NHL player, even with the first-overall pick as trade bait.
Maybe they might see if they can use it to pry promising center Michael Misa from the San Jose Sharks or winger Matvei Michkov from the Philadelphia Flyers. They could check on the availability of St. Louis Blues center Robert Thomas or Dallas Stars winger Jason Robertson.
If keeping Matthews happy means finding immediate roster help, that first-overall pick is the best trade chip the Maple Leafs have to make it happen.
Stats and standings via NHL.com. Salary cap and draft pick info via PuckPedia.
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