Predicting Which QB From 2026 NFL Draft Will Have Most Successful Career

Too many are already looking ahead to the 2027 quarterback class when the most recent crop of talent has yet to take an NFL snap, while still presenting the potential for multiple future starters to emerge.

Those within league circles are certainly guilty of overlooking what was available to them.

"I do not really begrudge anybody's strategy in this draft," an anonymous executive told The Athletic's Mike Sando, "because I don't know what you were supposed to do to be effective."

It's short-sighted. Every class produces quality talent. It falls on the scouting departments and decision-makers to pluck the right talent.

Case in point, the '26 quarterback crop shouldn't be viewed as Fernando Mendoza and everyone else. A handful of rookie quarterbacks now find themselves in situations where pathways exist to become the face of their respective franchises.

Don't underestimate how important situation is when it comes to getting the right person in place—which is exactly why this year's No. 1 overall pick and the recent draft selection with the best chance to succeed aren't one and the same.

5. Cole Payton, Philadelphia Eagles

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The Philadelphia Eagles drafted a quarterback outside of the first round, who has undeniable physical traits but needs work on his mechanics to become more consistent. Sound familiar?

The time, the discussion doesn't center on Jalen Hurts. Well, it does but not from an evaluation standpoint.

Payton has the makeup and requisite ability to eventually become an NFL starter. However, the fifth-round draft pick waited his turn at North Dakota State before finally becoming a full-time starter during his final season on campus.

"Payton is a developmental dual-threat quarterback with strong accuracy and experience running NFL/pro-style concepts," B/R scout Dame Parson wrote. "For a first-year starter, he plays with more nuance and attention to detail than expected."

Parson added, "[He's a] big, powerful quarterback and plus-level athlete. Adds an extra body in the running game, either on scrambles or designed runs."

As of now, the Eagles aren't moving past Hurts. The organization can't. A year from now, he can be released or cut post-June 1 and it would make some financial sense. At this point, it's impossible to deny the continued rumors of offensive discord emanating from that building.

Furthermore, Tanner McKee is now in the last year of his rookie contract and could get an opportunity to start elsewhere once he hits free agency.

Payton, whose physical profile matches (or betters) what the Eagles already have in Hurts, will develop over the next year or two, with the possibility of taking over the offense if he shows legitimate progress.

Philadelphia's current setup is the ideal opportunity for Payton to supersede his draft status and eventually thrive in the Eagles' offense.

4. Carson Beck, Arizona Cardinals

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Besides this year's two first-round quarterbacks, Carson Beck is the most likely quarterback to get a legitimate shot at starting. The question is when will the Cardinals hand him the offensive reins.

Veterans Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew II aren't a plan a quarterback. They're a short-term answer after the organization found itself in a spot where it could adequately address the game's most important position.

The Cardinals chose Beck with this year's 65th overall pick. A third-round quarterback isn't guaranteed anything, yet Arizona understands a massive decision is looming next offseason. The team's front office needs to know what it has at quarterback—which means that Beck must see the field as a rookie.

"They are trying to give themselves hope and take a swing," another executive told Sando. "Beck looks the part. He can make the throws. He is just going to short-circuit at the worst time. I'd sit him half the year like New Orleans did with (Tyler) Shough and then play him the rest of the way."

As stated, Beck has the tools to start in the NFL. When he's on time and working in rhythm, he throws a beautiful ball. When he's pressured or in big moments, his decision-making tends to fall apart. His reaction and overall performance will determine what direction the Cardinals will take next offseason.

Two things are working in Beck's favor, though. An opportunity to play early will be available, and he'll be learning from an offensive-minded head coach in Mike LaFleur, who has experience working for Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. The Cardinals' new head coach should bring a quarterback-friendly scheme in an attempt to maximize the rookie's capabilities.

3. Drew Allar, Pittsburgh Steelers

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The Pittsburgh Steelers' organizational stubbornness could benefit eventually benefit Drew Allar.

The Steelers believe they can contend every year—whether they actually can or not. Truth be told, Pittsburgh hasn't been a viable contender since it opened the 2020 season with an 11-0 record before losing four of the team's final five regular-season games.

Since then, the organization has been a half-step above mediocre, with a 48-36-1 regular-season record and no postseason victories. The quarterback position is the biggest reason behind this downturn. Ben Roethlisberger retired after the 2021 campaign. They team hasn't been set behind center over the following four campaigns.

Aaron Rodgers may be a big name and an all-time great, but he's clearly at the tail-end of his career. Still, the Steelers still have plans to move forward with Rodgers as their starting quarterback—which means they'll likely be good enough to sneak into the postseason and not make any noise once they arrive.

As a result, the Steelers won't be positioned well to address quarterback with a premium prospect. Mediocrity is a vicious cycle of not being good enough to compete for a Super Bowl, while not being bad enough to add premium talent.

Allar is an interesting addition because he has the traits and natural arm talent to be QB1, though he needs significant development to reach that point.

"[Head coach Mike McCarthy has] really got a good feel for what that takes," a team source said of developing Allar's footwork, per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler.

A mechanically-sound Allar can eventually start. Considering the surrounding cast always found in Pittsburgh, he could thrive if brought along properly and the Steelers can be content in the fact they didn't need to spend a first-round pick in order to find a franchise quarterback.

2. Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders

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The Las Vegas Raiders finally appear to be on the right track and made the correct choice by selecting Fernando Mendoza with this year's No. 1 overall pick.

To the organization's credit, it has done a good job placing the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in a position to eventually succeed. Klint Kubiak is an offensive-minded head coach, who has worked with Sam Darnold, Derek Carr, Brock Purdy, Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins at previous stops. Speaking of Cousins, he rejoined Kubiak is Las Vegas to be a veteran bridge and mentor for Mendoza. Meanwhile, the front office added Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum and wide receiver Jalen Nailer to improve the offense.

Although, the organization may not have done enough from a roster perspective for Mendoza to hit the ground running once he's inserted into the lineup.

"I think Mendoza will thrive there with Klint Kubiak, but it will take two or three years," one exec told Sando. "They just don't have a good enough team."

The Raiders continue to rework their lineup after four straight losing seasons, which included three different coaching changes (and a fourth at the helm now). As such, expectations should be tempered.

"When you can be patient, and we all understand there's not a ton of patience in the job that we chose here, but if you can find some level of patience and put people in positions when they're ready, that's the best way forward," general manager John Spytek told reporters at the NFL Scouting Combine.

From an individual standpoint, Mendoza's toughness and poise cannot be questioned after what he accomplished at Indiana. At the same time, the Raiders owned this year's top pick for a reason. His growth as the team's QB1 will take time, possibly multiple years, because the situation isn't nearly as good as it is for another incoming rookie.

1. Ty Simpson, Los Angeles Rams

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Ideally, Ty Simpson doesn't play a single down during the 2026 campaign. The Los Angeles Rams would be thrilled if that turns out to be this case, because this year's 13th overall pick won't be needed to replace reigning MVP Matthew Stafford at any point in the season.

A year from now and into the future will be a completely different story. Those around the league already see a pathway where the Rams can continue to be a dangerous opponent after drafting Stafford's heir apparent in Ty Simpson.

"[Sean] McVay will get everything there is to get from that kid," an anonymous coach told Sando. "Whatever you can get from (Brock) Purdy, you can get from this kid. You put a good enough team around him, he can get you a little ways."

In Simpson, the Rams may not be getting another quarterback with arm talent on par with Stafford—very few have ever been on that level—but the incoming rookie can eventually be the type of facilitator who slots perfectly into an offense designed by one of the game's top minds.

"You have to be smart to play here," Rams director of scouting Nicole Blake told reporters. "You can tell just watching the film that he knows how to play the position. He's a super-smart quarterback. He obviously grew up with a dad as a coach so he's lived and breathed it for his entire life."

Rising tensions thanks to the dynamic between the coach, veteran quarterback and rookie is a realistic possibility. If handled correctly, this setup can maximize Simpson's potential as he learns from both McVay and Stafford, while not being thrust into the lineup earlier than necessary.

The franchise's decision to choose the Alabama product as early as it did might have been surprising in the moment, but a clear succession plan at the game's most important position provides an opportunity for the Rams to seamlessly transition from one quarterback to the next.

Simpson won't be judged based on what he does early in his his career, because it should be very little. However, he's in the best possible situation to create long-term success and emerge as the best quarterback from his draft class.