Fantasy Football 2015: Preseason Position Battles to Keep an Eye On

NFL teams will use the next month to trim their roster from as many as 90 players to 53 players for the start of the regular season. For fantasy owners, the cuts may not be a big deal, but the battles for starting jobs certainly are, especially when it comes to determining fantasy value in both the short and long term.

However, opening the season as the starter doesn’t mean the competition is over, so while monitoring these camp battles is very important, it doesn’t end there.

When a competition is too close to call, coaches often defer to the veteran early in the season. It might be an experienced running back who may not have the upside of a talented rookie but can handle himself better in pass protection. Or a team may decide to take it slow with a young quarterback and roll with a journeyman early on, knowing full well that the rookie will eventually play.

The winners of these position battles really shouldn’t be declared until the season is over, and savvy fantasy players know to keep an eye on or stash away the best long-term options. If you stuck with Jeremy Hill last season, you had to deal with one start and just two games of double-digit carries through the first eight weeks but then reaped the benefits of having the league’s leading rusher over the final nine weeks.

While tracking these battles throughout training camp and the preseason is a fun way to get back into the swing of football, the harsh reality of injuries can really put a damper on things, as we’ve already seen before a preseason game has taken place.

Follow along to learn the best competitions to keep an eye on to help your fantasy teams start hot and finish strong, as I’ll predict how each situation plays out of the course of the season.

Devonta Freeman vs. Tevin Coleman

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

For the Falcons starting running back job

In one of the more predictable moves of last season, the Falcons relied too heavily on veteran RB Steven Jackson despite the fact that he ran for 3.5 YPC in 2013 and 3.7 YPC last year. Devonta Freeman didn’t fare much better at 3.8 YPC, but he had just 65 carries to Jackson’s 190. That coaching staff is gone and so is Jackson (and Jacquizz Rodgers).

Enter Tevin Coleman via the 73^rd pick in this year’s draft. 

Without veterans like Jackson and Rodgers around, the Falcons made this competition a two-man race between a pair of young, unproven backs. Freeman ran with the first-team offense in OTAs and was praised by head coach Dan Quinn for his “great quickness” back in June, according to D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Freeman has been getting love from the new coaching staff dating all the way back to February, when offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan said he loved Freeman coming out of college. In June, Shanahan told Vaughn McClure of ESPN, “Devonta has a chance to really excel in both the run and pass game.” As a rookie, Freeman did flash as a receiver with 30 receptions for 225 yards on 38 targets.

Both Freeman and Coleman are nice fits for Shanahan’s outside zone scheme, although Coleman probably has more raw ability and is coming off 2,000+ rushing yards in his final season at Indiana. 

The Falcons opened camp with Freeman as the frontrunner to win the starting job, but Coleman has gotten reps with the first-team offense. Unfortunately, things have not gone smoothly for either player. After Coleman was sidelined by what Quinn called a “hamstring strain,” Freeman suffered a hamstring injury of his own, which could sideline him for “a bit,” according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapport. 

Obviously, this one won’t be settled quickly, with health becoming the biggest issue for a team that doesn’t have much at the position, other than veteran Antone Smith.

Prediction: Freeman starts more games and ends up with more receptions, but carries are split and this backfield ends up being a headache for fantasy owners.

Todd Gurley vs. Tre Mason

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

For the Rams starting running back job

You may be wondering why this is even considered a battle given that Gurley was the No. 10 overall pick in this year’s draft while Mason was a third-round selection in 2014. The major factors are Gurley’s recovery from a torn ACL and the way head coach Jeff Fisher treats rookie RBs.

Gurley avoided the PUP list to start training camp despite suffering a torn ACL last November. He’s been limited to individual drills at the beginning of camp, but there’s no timetable for his return, according to ESPN’s Nick Wagoner. Fisher admitted Gurley isn’t 100 percent nor is he ready to play in a game, although they are encouraged by his progress.

Even if Gurley was healthy, recent history suggests he wouldn't have a huge role right out of the gate.

Back in 2013, rookie Zac Stacy was buried on the depth chart coming out of training camp and played just two games with one carry in the first four weeks of the season. He dipped below 15 carries just three times the rest of the year and led the team with 250 carries for 973 yards (3.9 YPC) and 7 rushing TDs.

Last year, the Rams stuck with Stacy at the beginning of the season despite picking Mason in the draft. Mason didn’t play until Week 6 due to Fisher’s concerns with his pass protection but ended up as the team’s lead back with 179 carries for 765 yards (4.3 YPC) and 4 TDs in 12 games (9 starts).

In both cases, the Rams didn’t use their eventual leading rushers for the first month of the season. If you dismissed either player for fantasy at the end of the preseason, you missed out on a lot of fantasy production.

Obviously, Gurley should be held in much higher regard as the earliest draft pick of the three, but his recovery from the ACL injury gives the Rams an excuse to play it slow with someone they have so much invested in for this year and the future.

That’s why Mason’s fantasy value wasn’t completely torpedoed—at least not for the entire season. There’s a very good chance he opens the season as the starter with Gurley being eased into the mix. Of course, that’s if the hamstring tightness Mason’s been dealing with doesn’t turn into anything serious.

Prediction: Mason opens the season as the starter, and Fisher is accused of playing it too safe by fantasy owners with a stake in Gurley. However, Gurley still finishes the season as the top fantasy back in St. Louis with Mason becoming an afterthought in the second half of the year.

Joique Bell vs. Ameer Abdullah

Joe Sargent/Getty Images

For the Lions starting running back job

When the Lions drafted Abdullah back in May, he wasn’t expected to threaten Joique Bell for the starting job. Plans change, sometimes out of necessity, and there’s a legitimate possibility Abdullah finds himself atop the depth chart come Week 1.

Bell underwent what were called “minor surgeries” to repair knee and Achilles' tendon injuries back in January, according to Josh Katzenstein of the Detroit News. While Bell expected to be ready of OTAs, he never participated, which opened the door for Abdullah to take first-team reps in OTAs and minicamp.

Training camp opened with Bell on the PUP list, and he’s yet to resume practicing. Head coach Jim Caldwell said Bell was coming along quickly, but he didn’t know how long it would take for him to return and said he was “majorly concerned” with Bell’s health. Even Bell doesn’t know his timetable, according to Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press.

Where does that leave Abdullah? The rookie was compared to Tre Mason coming out of Nebraska, and while he has pass protection concerns, he’s known for his abilities as a receiver. If Bell’s injuries linger, he may have to do more than that, and as a second-round pick, that shouldn’t be asking too much.

Remember, Bell has averaged just 3.9 YPC over the last two seasons as the team’s primary running back and he didn’t face much competition from Reggie Bush. Even if Bell gets healthy, Abdullah is likely looking at a prominent role as a rookie with Theo Riddick getting some work as a receiver out of the backfield.

Prediction: Abdullah winds up as the team’s best fantasy back no matter what happens with Bell. However, if Bell’s injury issues linger into the season, Abdullah has a legitimate shot at being a top-20 fantasy RB.

Isaiah Crowell vs. Duke Johnson vs. Terrance West

Jason Miller/Getty Images

For the Browns starting running back job

The Browns gave both Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West plenty of chances to take the starting job last year when Ben Tate went down with injuries and was eventually waived in mid-November. Neither took advantage of the opportunities, so it wasn’t a surprise to see the Browns used a third-round pick on Duke Johnson in this year’s draft.

Back in June, ESPN’s Adam Caplan said Johnson could be a three-down back for the Browns due to his versatility and explosiveness. During minicamp, Johnson worked at wide receiver, which was in the plans, according to offensive coordinator John DeFilippo.

Crowell was the team's most efficient back last year playing in every game (four starts) with 607 yards and 8 TDs on 148 carries (4.1 YPC), but he did have 3 fumbles. West made six starts in 14 appearances, rushing for 673 yards and 4 TDs on 171 carries (3.9 YPC). Neither player managed to crack the top-30 fantasy RBs in total points. 

When training camp opened, West got the first rep with the starting offense, but Crowell took that role on the second day, indicating the team doesn’t have a clear-cut favorite for the starting job.

The situation may have gotten clearer but for the wrong reasons.

On August 1, both West and Johnson suffered injuries. West has a calf issue that doesn’t appear to be serious, but Johnson has a pulled hamstring that head coach Mike Pettine called disappointing since the rookie will miss important reps. The injuries have put Crowell firmly in the driver’s seat to win the starting job.

Prediction: Crowell is the Week 1 starter with Johnson playing a secondary but active role (if healthy), similar to Giovani Bernard in Cincinnati behind Jeremy Hill. The ground game is important to the Browns because their passing attack looks very weak, so there should be enough room for both Crowell and Johnson to be productive.

Martavis Bryant vs. Markus Wheaton

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

For the Steelers starting wide receiver job opposite Antonio Brown

Last season was the Antonio Brown Show in Pittsburgh, which made the rest of the team’s wide receivers nothing more than complementary options in their passing attack.

With the Steelers having such a strong passing game, fantasy players have been trying to get another piece of that action by projecting and drafting Martavis Bryant as the second-best target in their receiving corps, and based on an ADP around 77, the expectations are lofty.

Too bad Ben Roethlisberger has a different opinion.

While speaking to Sirius/XM NFL Radio during their training camp stop, Roethlisberger called Wheaton the team’s No. 2 wide receiver and went as far to say he’ll be the team’s “breakout player.” Roethlisberger also spilled the beans on Wheaton’s expected role, which is to start opposite Brown and move into the slot when the team goes with three wide receivers.

Meanwhile, Bryant had a procedure to fix an elbow infection, which was expected to keep him out 7-10 days, according to Ross Jones of FoxSports.com. According to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN, the worst-case scenario would be Bryant missing the Hall of Fame game on August 9.

To back up Roethlisberger’s claims, the Steelers released their first depth chart, which lists Wheaton as a starter opposite Brown with Bryant as Brown’s backup. That probably shouldn’t come as a major surprise since Bryant played about 27 percent of the snaps last season compared to 67 percent for Wheaton, per Football Outsiders.

Prediction: Other than Brown, the Steelers won’t have another consistent fantasy producer in their receiving corps. Wheaton certainly looks like he’s in line to be a starter, but he’s been a disappointment in his first two seasons while Bryant’s flashed more as a rookie last year.

Ryan Mallett vs. Brian Hoyer

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

For the Texans starting quarterback job

Not every competition yields a fantasy prospect, but it can affect the fantasy value of other players on the team. 

You won’t find anyone making an effort to get Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer on their fantasy rosters this season, so why does this battle matter? If you have stake in DeAndre Hopkins, you want a quarterback who can deliver him the ball both accurately and with enough arm strength to take advantage of his big-play abilities.

Hoyer is the six-year veteran with 17 starts over his career, including 13 with the Browns last season. Before his two years with the Browns, Hoyer spent time with the Patriots, Steelers and Cardinals but had just one start before 2013. Last year, he completed just 55.3 percent of his passes for 3,326 yards with 12 TDs and 13 INTs.

Mallett hadn’t done anything of note in three years with the Patriots, throwing just four passes in four games before getting traded to the Texans last August. He took over the starting job from Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 11 and had a decent performance in his first career start but struggled to play through a torn pectoral the next week and missed the rest of the season.

Both players have experience with head coach Bill O’Brien’s offense, although Hoyer seems to be the favorite according to much of the Houston media. This includes long-time NFL reporter John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, who’s been predicting it’s Hoyer’s job since June. To his credit, O’Brien has denied this and said they’re even. 

Unless Mallett is terrible in the preseason, he should be the starter. Maybe it’s because we’ve seen Hoyer and his noodle arm fail to complete 60 percent of his passes for the duration of his career or maybe it’s the excitement of seeing what Mallett can do for a full season under O’Brien.

If you’re invested in Hopkins this season, Mallett is probably the better choice because he has a much better arm, and that makes Hopkins’ ceiling a bit higher. Hoyer isn’t very good, as we saw last year in Cleveland, so why keep the charade going that he’s a legitimate starting QB? 

Prediction: Mallett may not win the starting job coming out of the preseason, but he’ll start more games than Hoyer. Either way, the Texans are in trouble as long as Arian Foster is on the sidelines.

Breshad Perriman vs. Kamar Aiken vs. Marlon Brown

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

For the Ravens starting wide receiver job opposite Steve Smith

The departure of Torrey Smith left a gaping hole in the Ravens receiving corps—specifically in the starting lineup—so the battle for this job will be an important one, as it could produce a relevant fantasy option in new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman’s offense.

The Ravens used the No. 26 overall pick on Breshad Perriman in this year’s draft as their primary option to replace Smith. While Perriman was projected as a first-round talent, he had problems with drops at UCF. However, he told Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun that it’s something he was working on tremendously because it was considered a weakness.

Even though Perriman received praise from Joe Flacco and Trestman, he still had issues with drops during the offseason. Perriman showed enough to open training camp as a starter but suffered a bruised knee that has kept him out since July 31. On August 5, head coach John Harbaugh said the rookie would be out at least another couple of days.

Four-year veteran Kamar Aiken, who appeared in all 16 games for the Ravens last season, did work with the starters in the offseason and was listed as a starter on the team’s first depth chart released on August 6. With Perriman and Marlon Brown (knee) injured, the Ravens could be deferring to the healthy Aiken at this point in training camp. 

Trestman has been a fantasy-friendly coach for the last two seasons in Chicago and helped boost Alshon Jeffery into fantasy stardom, so a starting role in the Ravens offense could provide some legitimate fantasy value, and Perriman is clearly the most talented player vying for that spot.

Prediction: Barring any lingering issues with his knee, Perriman wins the starting job and never looks back. He’s an intriguing sleeper in this offense.

Bishop Sankey vs. David Cobb

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

For the Titans starting running back job

Did the Titans blow it when they made Bishop Sankey the first running back selected in last year’s draft? Probably, but that doesn’t mean Sankey’s career is ruined, as he can still be productive in the proper role. Is that as a lead back or a complementary player?

Sankey led the Titans with 153 carries for 572 yards (3.7 YPC) and just 2 TDs in addition to 18 receptions for 133 yards on 24 targets. However, while he also led the Titans running backs in playing time, he checked in at just 36.6 percent of all the offensive snaps, per Football Outsiders.

The Titans decided to cut Shonn Greene in June, after it was apparent they didn’t need the plodding veteran following the selection of David Cobb in the fifth-round of this year’s draft. Cobb has similar size to Greene at 5’11’’ and 229 pounds, so he gives the Titans some bulk they don’t have in Sankey.

Sankey has led the way in training camp and has been the most impressive Titans running back, according to Jim Wyatt on the team’s website. He also added about 6-7 pounds to help with durability, which was a concern last year.

Head coach Ken Whisenhunt praised Cobb for his patience, but there have been concerns with his pass protection, and that could cost Cobb some time until he improves, which is a typical problem for rookie running backs.

On a bad team, this isn’t a great situation for fantasy no matter who wins the starting job, and it will only get worse if this turns into a committee with Sankey, Cobb and Antonio Andrews.

Prediction: Sankey wins the starting job, but Cobb ends up with more carries on the season. If Sankey can up his role in the passing game, he might be worth using as a flex option in PPR formats. Don’t get caught up in finding the volume back on this team. It won’t be enough to give you a reliable fantasy running back.

All rankings and statistics are from FantasyPros.com unless otherwise noted.