2026 NBA Play-In Tournament Predictions
The 82-game marathon is in the books, but the sprint to the NBA championship starts now.
And before that four-round grind gets underway, there's an eight-team, six-game tussle to get sorted out to cement the 16-team playoff field.
That's right, it's Play-In Tournament time, a frenzied fight to claim the final four tickets available for basketball's most exclusive big dance. Eight teams will enter the tournament, and only four will advance—two by way of winning the 7/8 matchup in each conference, two others by escaping a winner-take-all showdown on Friday night.
The stakes couldn't be higher, so the stage sets itself. Let's bypass any superfluous buildup then and just break out our crystal ball-backed predictions.
Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets
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Eastern Conference 9/10 Game | Tuesday, April 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Heat are more familiar with these festivities than they'd probably care to admit. This is their fourth consecutive Play-In Tournament appearance, which might be one of basketball's least flattering badges of honor. Then again, Miami won't take these opportunities for granted, having previously parlayed a Play-In invitation into an NBA Finals appearance back in 2023.
Experience is clearly on the Heat's side. Coaching should favor them, too, since skipper Erik Spoelstra is routinely recognized as one of the sharpest coaching minds in the profession.
Unfortunately, that's pretty much it when it comes to Miami's advantages. Charlotte has more high-end talent, better depth and a much richer resume of late. The Hornets have been the league's most efficient team since the calendar flipped to 2026. The Heat, who clocked in a forgettable 16th over that same stretch, trudge into this tilt having lost 10 of their last 15.
Counting out a Spo squad is rarely advisable. Things could get interesting if Mr. 83 Bam Adebayo or Tyler Herro catches fire. That said, all arrows are pointing toward Charlotte advancing behind a barrage of buckets from LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Rookie of the Year candidate Kon Knueppel.
Prediction: Hornets by 11.
Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns
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Western Conference 7/8 Game | Tuesday, April 14 at 10 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
Seventh seeds historically dominate this matchup, but Portland will fight to change that. Maybe literally. The Blazers are one of the toughest, most physical teams in the entire postseason field. Their defense was among the Association's stingiest after the All-Star break (third in efficiency).
Of course, Portland kind of has to scratch and claw for anything, because nothing comes easy for this club. You could call this a hit-or-miss offense, but honestly, it's just more of a miss: 29th in field-goal shooting, 28th in three-point percentage and 24th in free-throw shooting. It's also dead last in turnover percentage, so it's about as inefficient as it can get.
The question is whether Phoenix is the right team to take advantage of that. And the answer is...it depends. On a lot. Devin Booker has to play like an All-Star, obviously, but it can't be all about him. He'll need some support scoring. That hasn't always been easy to find. It often boils down to whether Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks are hitting shots or not.
The last time these teams met—a game notably played without Booker—the Suns managed just 77 points on 36.5 percent shooting (25.7 percent from three). This Blazers defense is capable of authoring another such effort Tuesday night.
Our crystal ball just doesn't see it happening. Booker has typically been awesome under the bright lights. It's hard to see Portland keeping up given Deni Avdija's shooting struggles down the stretch (23.5 percent from range after the All-Star break) and Shaedon Sharpe's understandable rust after missing two months with a left fibula stress reaction.
Prediction: Suns by four.
Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers
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Eastern Conference 7/8 Game | Wednesday, April 15 at 7:30 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Magic should be hosting this game. Full stop. All they had to do for that to happen was handle a Boston Celtics team on Sunday that had nothing to play for and sat its rotation regulars as a result. But Orlando couldn't answer that call, instead finding itself helpless against the likes of Baylor Scheierman (30 points, seven assists), Luka Garza (27 points, 12 rebounds) and Ron Harper Jr. (27 points).
"Just think we were relaxed," Magic forward Paolo Banchero told reporters after his team couldn't recover from a 42-20 thrashing in the third quarter. "No sense of urgency."
This was inexplicably awful—and not the worst Orlando has looked this season. It's impossible to have any confidence in this club. That's while assuming Joel Embiid has no shot at playing after his recent appendectomy.
Even if the big fella sits, though, Philly has sufficient firepower with Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and All-Rookie first-team lock VJ Edgecombe. While Orlando could counter that talent on paper, that feels like a moot point when its on-paper advantages have so rarely resulted in wins this season.
The Sixers have home-court advantage, the only 2025-26 All-Star in this matchup (Maxey) and the more experienced head coach. Take them in a rock fight.
Prediction: Sixers by six.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers
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Western Conference 9/10 Game | Wednesday, April 15 at 10 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The recent return of Stephen Curry from a months-long absence with a nagging knee injury may have the Warriors feeling like anything is possible again. Because for him, anything is. This was real back-on-the-bicycle wizardry from him, popping off for 20.3 points in 26.8 minutes over the four games he was able to play.
As a collective, though, Golden State is too limited to provide proper support. Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody are both sidelined by season-ending knee injuries. Kristaps Porziņģis is the questionable-status personified. Brandin Podziemski changes temperatures as quickly and often as a water faucet.
The Warriors, for the record, went 1-3 during those four games Curry was able to play late. And one of those losses was suffered on Sunday against these same Clippers, who rested Kawhi Leonard, endured miserable shooting from Darius Garland (15 points on 17 field-goal attempts) and still won the non-Curry minutes by 18 points.
Asking Curry to carry this undermanned club is too much even for a miracle-worker of his ilk. But the Dubs don't really have alternatives. The Clippers, meanwhile, might get All-NBA-caliber play out of Leonard, but even if they don't, they have players like Garland, Bennedict Mathurin and John Collins who can pile up points.
Prediction: Clippers by eight.
Predictions for Friday Night
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Eastern Conference 9/10 winner at 7/8 loser | Friday, April 17 at 7:30 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
If these predictions hold, the Magic will host the Hornets with the eighth seed on the line. Oddsmakers almost certainly wouldn't favor the home team, though.
Orlando has been all over the map, while Charlotte has (stunningly) emerged as one of the league's true models of consistency. Buzz City's bucket-getters present a particular problem in this matchup, because the Magic remain shaky on offense and practically punchless when it comes to perimeter shooting.
Could Orlando's size, length and physicality present problems for Charlotte? Theoretically, sure. But the Magic had those same attributes in the regular season. The Hornets still won each of their last three meetings by at least 15 points.
Prediction: Hornets by 13.
Western Conference 9/10 winner at 7/8 loser | Friday, April 17 at 10 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
This contest would see the Blazers hosting the Clippers, and oddsmakers again might favor the road team. Portland is, by and large, unproven in the playoffs. L.A., meanwhile, follows the lead of a former Finals MVP (Leonard) and a championship head coach (Ty Lue).
That experience could be key, as the stat sheet doesn't show a lot of separation between them. They split their season series 2-2. Their net ratings differed by only 1.5 points per 100 possessions (plus-1.1 for L.A., minus-0.4 for Portland).
Of course, in the NBA, it's always a safe bet to side with the brightest star. The Blazers don't have anyone in Leonard's orbit. Avdija had some great stretches this season, and maybe players like Sharpe and Donovan Clingan have great moments ahead of them, but Leonard brings a different level of defined, established, award-winning greatness. With everything on the line, that feels like an easy (and obvious) difference-maker.
Prediction: Clippers by three.
