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MLB 2026 Mock Draft 4.0 Predictions for Every 1st-Round Pick
It's been over a month since our last 2026 MLB mock draft, and with a significant sample size now built for this year's high school and college seasons, there is some real data to help further shape the draft board.
The Chicago White Sox have the No. 1 overall pick after winning the draft lottery back in December at the annual winter meetings, and they will be on the clock when the draft festivities kick off on July 11.
UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky remains the undisputed top prospect in the class and overwhelming favorite to be the No. 1 pick, but there's a lot of fluidity behind him. High school shortstop Grady Emerson, Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey and UC Santa Barbara right-hander Jackson Flora are among the other top-tier names to know.
Ahead is a full mock of the first 40 picks. That allows at least one pick for all 30 teams, as the Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays and Dodgers all had their first selection moved back 10 spots as a penalty for exceeding the highest level of the luxury-tax threshold.
In case you missed it: B/R's 2026 MLB Mock Draft 3.0
Nos. 1-3
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1. Chicago White Sox: SS Roch Cholowsky, UCLA
Barring a massive surprise, Cholowsky will be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft. He checks all the boxes to be a face-of-the-franchise level talent at shortstop, with a 60-hit, 60-power offensive profile and Gold Glove potential defensively. After a huge sophomore season, he is hitting .336/.464/.679 with 13 home runs and 42 RBI in 35 games this spring.
2. Tampa Bay Rays: C Vahn Lackey, Georgia Tech
Lackey is a terrific defensive catcher with good receiving skills, excellent footwork and a strong arm, and a big spring at the plate has vaulted him comfortably into the top-five conversation. With a .398/.519/.789 line that includes 12 home runs and more walks (29) than strikeouts (21), he has been one of the best hitters in the country, regardless of position.
3. Minnesota Twins: SS Grady Emerson, Fort Worth Christian School (TX)
With plus tools across the board, including a 60-grade hit tool that is among the best in this year's high school class, Emerson has a chance to develop into a 30/30 shortstop at the next level. It's his overall polish that helps separate him from the rest of this year's prep middle infielders, and his advanced game gives him a much higher probability of reaching his ceiling.
Nos. 4-6
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4. San Francisco Giants: RHP Jackson Flora, UC Santa Barbara
Flora has been utterly dominant through nine starts this spring, going 6-0 with a 0.63 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 71 strikeouts in 57.1 innings. The 6'5", 205-pound right-hander can touch triple-digits with his fastball, and he has plus command of his entire three-pitch repertoire. He is now the clear No. 1 arm in this class, and a year after Tyler Bremner went No. 2 overall, it looks like UC Santa Barbara will have another top-five pick.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: OF Eric Booth Jr., Oak Grove HS (MS)
Booth is one of the most physically talented players in the draft class, with a loud toolbox that includes 70-grade speed, 50-grade power and an above-average hit tool that should allow him to maximize both. There are some quirks in his swing mechanics and he leans heavily on his athleticism defensively, but his massive ceiling has him flying up draft boards.
6. Kansas City Royals: SS Jacob Lombard, Gulliver Prep (FL)
Lombard raised some red flags with a considerable amount of swing-and-miss on the showcase circuit last summer, but he is putting together a strong senior season and erasing some of those concerns in the process. Players with 60-power, 65-speed offensive profiles don't grow on trees, and that's especially true of ones capable of sticking at shortstop long-term.
Nos. 7-9
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7. Baltimore Orioles: OF AJ Gracia, Virginia
Gracia has been a consistent offensive performer since his freshman season at Duke. After transferring to Virginia this past offseason, he is hitting .324/.475/.596 with 10 home runs, 33 RBI and a 17.9 percent walk rate in 37 games this spring. His value will come from what he does in the batter's box, but he looks like one of the more plug-and-play bats in the class.
8. Athletics: RHP Cameron Flukey, Coastal Carolina
Flukey is dealing with a stress fracture in his rib, and he has made just one start this spring as a result. The 6'6" right-hander logged a 3.19 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 118 strikeouts in 101.2 innings as a sophomore while helping Coastal Carolina reach the College World Series final. He has the talent to be the top arm in this class, though with some obvious risk now that he's not building off that strong 2025 campaign.
9. Atlanta Braves: SS Chris Hacopian, Texas A&M
Hacopian is one of the best pure hitters in the 2026 class, with a 60-grade hit tool and excellent barrel skills that help him maximize his average raw power. His future defensive home is up in the air, as he probably fits best at third base or in left field, but his bat is advanced enough to bet on the offensive side of his game and figure that out when the time comes.
Nos. 10-12
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10. Colorado Rockies: OF Sawyer Strosnider, TCU
With a .436 on-base percentage this spring and a 60-power, 60-speed tool profile, Strosnider provides an exciting combination of upside and polish offensively. He hit .350/.420/.650 with 13 doubles, 10 triples, 11 home runs and 10 steals as a freshman, and while his average is down to .286 this spring, he has raised his walk rate from 8.0 to 20.0 percent and proven to be a more advanced hitter.
11. Washington Nationals: SS Justin Lebron, Alabama
After a loud freshman season and an 18-homer sophomore campaign, Lebron was viewed as one of the top-tier prospects in the 2026 class heading into the spring. His .271/.398/.549 line has fallen a bit short of expectations and his stock is slipping as a result, but he is still a sure-fire shortstop with 30/30 upside, which means he won't fall too much further out of the top 10.
12. Los Angeles Angels: 3B Ace Reese, Mississippi State
Reese is a bat-first prospect, but an awfully good one with some of the best raw power in the 2026 class and enough hit tool to make the most of it. The 6'4", 220-pound slugger posted a 1.140 OPS with 21 home runs last season after transferring in from Houston, and he is swinging it well once again this spring with a .312/.404/.630 line and 10 long balls in 36 games.
Nos. 13-15
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13. St. Louis Cardinals: OF Drew Burress, Georgia Tech
After slugging 44 home runs and showing elite on-base skills during his first two seasons at Georgia Tech, Burress entered the spring as one of the top bats on the board. He is hitting .333/.472/.589 this spring, but that represents a 104-point dip in his slugging percentage, and he has just seven home runs in 35 games. He is still a first-round lock, but the downturn in over-the-fence production moves him 5-10 spots down the board.
14. Miami Marlins: LHP Gio Rojas, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL)
With a projectable 6'4", 190-pound frame, three quality pitches and advanced command, Rojas is widely regarded as the top prep arm in the 2026 class. He throws a ton of strikes and has clean mechanics on the mound thanks to his plus athleticism. The Marlins have not shied away from the high school pitching demographic, and their success developing Thomas White could reinforce this lane.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks: OF Derek Curiel, LSU
Curiel has a 60-grade hit tool and looks like a safe bet to stick in center field, which alone is enough to make him a first-round prospect. He is hitting .359/.437/.545 with 15 extra-base hits and 10 steals as a draft-eligible sophomore after a terrific true freshman campaign for last year's national champions. This might be his floor if teams believe in his power potential.
Nos. 16-18
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16. Texas Rangers: C Ryder Helfrick, Arkansas
Entering the spring, the 2026 catcher class was Vahn Lackey and everyone else, but Helfrick has solidified his status as the No. 2 backstop. He has a 1.051 OPS with 12 home runs and 34 RBI in 36 games this spring. He has also made significant strides with both his walk rate (13.6 to 20.7 percent) and strikeout rate (22.5 to 18.3 percent) while showing the defensive chops to be a quality backstop.
17. Houston Astros: SS Eric Becker, Virginia
Becker is a high-floor middle infielder with one of the better hit tools in the 2026 class, and he sports a .356/.454/.621 line over 573 plate appearances as a three-year starter at Virginia. He played third base for Team USA last summer and might end up fitting best as an offensive-minded utility player who fills an everyday role without an everyday position.
18. Cincinnati Reds: SS James Clark, St. John Bosco HS (CA)
Clark has some serious helium this spring and profiles as a five-tool shortstop who is only scratching the surface of his long-term potential. He has a polished approach at the plate, and while his swing is not built for power, he does have impact potential thanks to his bat speed. The Princeton commit also has an extremely high baseball IQ.
Nos. 19-21
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19. Cleveland Guardians: LHP Cole Carlon, Arizona State
After spending the first two seasons pitching primarily in relief, Carlon has shifted to a starting role this spring and continued to impress with a 4.11 ERA and 75 strikeouts in 46 innings. With a strong 6'5", 230-pound frame and a four-pitch mix, command is the question mark, and he has trimmed his walk rate to a manageable 9.5 percent this season.
20. Boston Red Sox: RHP Liam Peterson, Florida
Peterson began the spring squarely in the conversation to be the first pitcher taken in the 2026 draft, but he has walked 25 batters in 45 innings and actually taken a step backward with his command. He still has electric stuff, a durable 6'5", 225-pound frame and a 34.4 percent strikeout rate, but he comes with enough risk to fit better at the back of the first round than the top.
21. San Diego Padres: LHP Brody Bumila, Bishop Feehan HS (TX)
Bumila has been the pop-up prospect of the spring so far thanks to an imposing 6'8", 245-pound frame and an electric fastball that is regularly bumping triple-digits this spring. He is also a standout basketball player who averaged 40.8 points and 20.8 rebounds during the playoffs en route to a state championship, and that athleticism plays well on the mound.
Nos. 22-25
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22. Detroit Tigers: SS Tyler Spangler, De La Salle HS (CA)
A terrific run on the showcase circuit last summer solidified Spangler as one of the top prep shortstops in the 2026 class, and while he doesn't have one loud tool, he is rock solid across the board with a great chance to stick at a premium position. He consistently finds the barrel, and has room to add strength to an athletic 6'3", 195-pound frame.
23. Chicago Cubs: SS Tyler Bell, Kentucky
Bell spurned the Rays as a second-round pick in the 2024 draft out of high school, and that looks like the right decision two years later as he's expected to be a first-round selection as a draft-eligible sophomore. Slowed by a shoulder injury early this spring, he is hitting .354/.567/.569 in 97 plate appearances since returning to action.
24. Seattle Mariners: OF Caden Sorrell, Texas A&M
Sorrell is having a loud spring at College Station, hitting .379/.465/.856 with 17 home runs and 57 RBI in 33 games. He has 40 home runs in 121 games over three seasons for the Aggies, and aside from his obvious power, he also has 60-grade speed and a strong throwing arm that would fit well in right field.
25. Milwaukee Brewers: LHP Mason Edwards, USC
After logging 70.1 total innings in a swingman role over his first two collegiate seasons, Edwards is enjoying a breakout spring. The 6'2", 190-pound southpaw has a 1.35 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 95 strikeouts in 53.1 innings, and he fits the prototypical high-floor college lefty profile with his advanced pitchability.
Nos. 26-28
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26. Atlanta Braves: RHP Cade Townsend, Ole Miss
PPI pick for Drake Baldwin winning NL Rookie of the Year
Townsend struggled to a 6.35 ERA and 13.1 percent walk rate as a freshman, but ended his season on a high note with 4.2 scoreless innings against eventual national champion LSU in the SEC tournament. He has been dealing this spring with a 2.02 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and a 54-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 35.2 innings, and that improved command of his electric stuff is pushing him up boards.
27. New York Mets: OF Aiden Robbins, Texas
First pick moved back 10 spots for exceeding top of luxury-tax threshold
A Seton Hall transfer who hit .307/.391/.545 over 115 plate appearances in the Cape Cod League last summer, Robbins has looked right at home in his first season against SEC competition. His approach is built more for contact than power, but he is batting .358/.428/.745 with 15 home runs in 34 games this spring and has climbed into the first-round conversation.
28. Houston Astros: LHP Carson Bolemon, Southside Christian School (SC)
PPI pick for Hunter Brown finishing top-three in AL Cy Young
Bolemon is more of a finished product than the typical high school pitcher, but that's not a bad thing when you have a 6'4", 210-pound frame, clean mechanics and four quality pitches. He will be 19 years old on draft day and has an internal brace procedure on his ledger from when he was in eighth grade, but he stacks up to any prep arm in this class.
Competitive Balance A Picks
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Competitive Balance Round A Picks
All teams that have either one of the 10 smallest markets or 10 smallest revenue pools receive an additional pick at the end of the first or second round. The groups of teams alternate between the two rounds each year. These are the only picks that are eligible to be traded.
The Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays and Dodgers also each received a 10-pick penalty on their first selection for exceeding the second luxury-tax threshold, leaving their first picks as part of the Competitive Balance Round A.
29. Cleveland Guardians: 2B Chris Rembert, Auburn
30. Kansas City Royals: RHP Logan Reddemann, UCLA
31. Arizona Diamondbacks: SS Aiden Ruiz, The Stony Brook School (NY)
32. St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Tegan Kuhns, Tennessee
33. Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Joseph Contreras, Blessed Trinity Catholic HS (GA)
Pick acquired from Orioles in Shane Baz trade
34. Pittsburgh Pirates: LHP Logan Schmidt, Ganesha HS (CA)
35. New York Yankees: OF Blake Bowen, JSerra Catholic HS (CA)
First pick moved back 10 spots for exceeding top of luxury-tax threshold
36. Philadelphia Phillies: LHP Jared Grindlinger, Huntington Beach HS (CA)
First pick moved back 10 spots for exceeding top of luxury-tax threshold
37. Colorado Rockies: RHP Ruger Riojas, Texas
Second Round
38. Colorado Rockies: OF Zion Rose, Louisville
39. Toronto Blue Jays: OF Jake Brown, LSU
First pick moved back 10 spots for exceeding top of luxury-tax threshold
40. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Jensen Hirschkorn, Kingsburg HS (CA)
First pick moved back 10 spots for exceeding top of luxury-tax threshold
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