6 Hypothetical Draft-Day Surprises That Would Rock the 2026 NFL Draft

It's April, which means that NFL draft season has officially arrived. While the collective football world rarely knows what's going to happen before draft weekend, this year's draft doesn't feel like one that will provide many major surprises.

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is expected to go No. 1 overall and to be the only quarterback considered in the early first round. A handful of receivers should be taken in Round 1, along with edge-rushers like Arvell Reese, Rueben Bain Jr., and David Bailey. Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love is likely be the rare top-10 running back in the mold of Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, and Ashton Jeanty.

Overall, most seem to believe that the 2026 draft will go as scripted, which may be why the pre-draft build-up has been less drama-drenched than in years past. Of course, anyone who has followed the draft over the years knows that it only takes one unanticipated pick, trade, or development to thrust everything into chaos—and to send the most carefully constructed mocks into the trash.

Here, we'll examine six unlikely but realistically possible draft-day surprises that would rock the 2026 NFL draft.

The Raiders Don't Take Mendoza at No. 1

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Fernando Mendoza

Why does Mendoza feel like such a lock for the No. 1 overall pick? Well, the Las Vegas Raiders need a long-term answer at the game's most important position, and Mendoza is the top QB in the 2026 class by a large margin.

Not only does Mendoza possess all the physical tools and intangibles needed to succeed in the NFL, but he's also proven himself on the field. The reigning Heisman winner and national champion checks every possible box. It would be a shock—even to Mendoza himself—if he isn't the Raiders' choice, even after they signed Kirk Cousins.

"Mendoza is working with Brian Griese right now," NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah recently told The Pat McAfee Show (beginning at the 20-second mark). "...They're installing the Raiders' offense."

But what if Cousins wasn't signed just to be a placeholder and a mentor? He has been a Pro Bowler before, and he has experience under Las Vegas head coach Klint Kubiak. It's not wholly outlandish to believe that the Raiders have a little bit of doubt about Mendoza and have one eye on what is expected to be a more impressive 2027 quarterback class.

As unlikely as it may be, Las Vegas might receive a trade offer for the No. 1 pick that it decides it can't dismiss—especially if that offer were to come from the quarterback-needy Jets.

New York holds the second overall pick in the draft and isn't expected to be particularly competitive this year. A trade with New York could, in theory, give the Raiders the best non-quarterback in this class and a real shot at the top QB in 2027.

Such a deal might not fundamentally change the rest of the first round, but it would leave fans stunned for days, if not weeks or months.

The Jets Snap Up Love at No. 2

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Jeremiyah Love

The Jets probably aren't getting a shot at Mendoza, but they still might find a way to rock the draft near the top of Round 1.

Love is widely considered the sort of elite running-back prospect that can instantly change the fortunes of an offense. A dependable runner and receiver with a special level of burst, the former Irish star has the makings of a perennial Pro Bowler.

Of course, running backs don't often go at the top of the draft, which is why Love is one of this year's most intriguing prospects. He might slide to a team like the Cincinnati Bengals or Dallas Cowboys. He might go in the top five, as he did in the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's latest mock draft.

The B/R Scouting Department paired Love with the Tennessee Titans, making him the new running mate of second-year quarterback Cam Ward.

But what if the Jets decide that Love's ceiling is too high to ignore and make him the second player off the board? That scenario might sound silly with Breece Hall on New York's roster, but we need to consider two things.

For one, Love, while unproven, has more athletic upside than Hall. Secondly, the Jets don't have Hall under a multi-year contract. New York gave Hall the franchise tag earlier this offseason and insists that it wants to sign him to a long-term deal, albeit after the draft.

"After the draft [I'll] kind of shift my focus back there and hopefully get something done with Breece," general manager Darren Mougey said, per Brian Costello of the New York Post.

Theoretically, the Jets could easily decide that having Love on a rookie contract is better for their latest rebuild than having Hall on a lucrative second deal—even though the slotted contract for the No. 2 pick would be high. If so, New York could snap up Love at No. 2 and look to trade Hall to a team entering Day 2 without a solidified starter.

Ty Simpson Goes In the First 16 Picks

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Ty Simpson

Mendoza is widely considered the only quarterback prospect worth taking highly in this year's class. Alabama's Ty Simpson is the second-ranked QB on the B/R board, and the Scouting Department does not have a first-round grade on him.

Despite showing flashes of NFL ability in 2025, Simpson also played poorly late in the season. He also has a mere 15 career starts on his resume, which is a small sample size.

Simpson did, however, sneak into the first round in the B/R Scouting Department's latest mock, though—with a projected trade up that sent him to the Arizona Cardinals at No. 26.

The late-first round feels like Simpson's ceiling—he went 33rd overall in ESPN's latest collaborative mock—and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him reach it. Teams often trade into the back end of Round 1 in order to secure the fifth-year option. It would, however, be a fairly significant surprise to see Simpson go in the top half of the first round.

That doesn't mean it won't happen, though. The QB-needy Jets will be back on the clock at No. 16, and teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 21) and Cleveland Browns (No. 24) might even be a threat to jump the Jets for Simpson. After all, teams often take extreme measures in the pursuit of a quarterback, and Simpson does have his supporters.

ESPN's Dan Orlovsky recently stated that he believes that Simpson is the best quarterback in the 2026 class. He's also insisted that many decision-makers around the league feel similarly.

If Orlovsky is indeed correct and teams like Simpson more than most draft analysts do, he could be drafted much higher than anyone expects.

The 49ers Deal Mac Jones for a First-Round Pick

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Mac Jones

As previously mentioned, teams often do silly things when they become desperate for a quarterback. That's how Jake Locker became a top-10 pick, how Jimmy Garoppolo was traded for a second-round selection, and how Deshaun Watson landed a $230 million fully-guaranteed contract.

Comparatively, a trade for San Francisco 49ers backup Mac Jones wouldn't seem so risky at all. The 27-year-old was a rookie Pro Bowler in 2021 and was fantastic as an eight-game starter for the 49ers this past season.

Jones went 5-3 as a starter in 2025, finishing with 2,151 yards, 13 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a 97.4 quarterback rating. He's had his struggles in the NFL, too, but Jones feels like a "safer" option than any quarterback in this class not named Mendoza.

The recent resurgence of former "busts" like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Daniel Jones only adds to the allure of a quarterback like Jones.

However, the 49ers won't be willing to let him go on the cheap. They have their long-term starter in Brock Purdy, but they've experienced enough injuries at the position in recent years to know the value of a dependable backup.

That doesn't mean that San Francisco wouldn't be willing to trade Jones, who is entering the final year of a two-year contract. However, it would take a substantial offer to land him.

The 49ers might listen to a first-round offer during the draft, and there's a non-zero chance that a quarterback-needy team might make it. If Simpson goes earlier than expected and a team like Pittsburgh or Arizona doesn't like its chances of being in the mix for a top 2027 QB prospect, it just might place a call to San Francisco.

The Cowboys Deal George Pickens on Opening Night

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George Pickens

The Dallas Cowboys had a terrific offense in 2025, thanks in large part to the breakout performance of trade acquisition George Pickens. The former Steelers standout racked up a team-high 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns while helping the Cowboys field the league's second-ranked passing attack.

Dallas locked up Pickens early in the offseason with the franchise tag and is widely expected to address its 30th-ranked defense early in the draft. However, the Cowboys haven't ruled out taking an offensive difference-maker with the 12th or 20th overall selections.

"You want to be prepared to do what we need to do on defense, but certainly we're not going to pass on a great offensive player if they're there at one of those spots," head coach Brian Schottenheimer said, per Tommy Yarrish of the team's official website.

The Cowboys might be even more eager to land an offensive playmaker if they decided to trade Pickens during the draft's opening night. While keeping him long-term makes plenty of sense in a vacuum, paying Pickens a market rate alongside CeeDee Lamb could be problematic.

According to ESPN's Todd Archer, the Cowboys "have not had discussions" with Pickens about a long-term deal. If an extension doesn't seem either likely or sensible, trading Pickens and getting a receiver on a rookie contract could be an option.

It might not be an option the Cowboys are likely to exercise. However, if a prospect like Arizona State's Jordyn Tyson, Ohio State's Carnell Tate, or USC's Makai Lemon is sitting there when Dallas is on the clock, it's one that could become more appealing.

And having Pickens land with another team while a top receiver comes off the board to Dallas would certainly send shockwaves through the NFL.

Injury Concerns Lead to a Massive Jordyn Tyson Slide

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Jordyn Tyson

As previously noted, several wide receivers are expected to be targeted in the first round. Tyson should be one of them. The Arizona State product has the physical traits of a future All-Pro, and his ceiling is as high as any pass-catcher in this draft class.

Tyson is the top-ranked wide receiver on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's latest draft board. However, he does carry some injury concerns. He suffered a significant knee injury in 2022, a fractured clavicle in 2024, and is currently dealing with a lingering hamstring issue.

"A history of lingering injuries will cause difficult conversations during the draft about how high he should be valued by NFL teams," Dame Parson of the B/R Scouting Department wrote.

Still, Tyson is expected to be a high selection—he went 13th overall to the Los Angeles Rams in ESPN's latest collaborative mock draft—at least by those in the media.

Of course, teams and draft analysts don't always see prospects in the same light. A year ago, Michigan cornerback Will Johnson might have been a top-five selection if fully healthy and was still expected to go highly, despite lingering issues. The B/R Scouting Department put him at No. 16 in its final 2025 mock.

However, teams were more concerned with Johnson's knee issue than anyone expected. Ultimately, he fell out of the first round entirely and landed with the Cardinals at No. 47 overall.

"Michigan CB Will Johnson Jr. has a knee issue that has concerned some NFL teams and helps explain why he still has not been selected," ESPN insider Adam Schefter posted on X during last year's draft.

If teams are similarly concerned with Tyson's injury history, he could experience his own slide that shakes up the rest of the first round and the receiver market at large.