MLB Round-by-Round Playoff Predictions and 2026 World Series Picks

It's only Day 1 of the 2026 MLB season. There are over 180 more to go, not counting the postseason. To predict what will happen is an exercise in pure hubris.

On that note, who's up for predictions for which teams will make the playoffs and which one will be left standing as World Series champions?

This exercise was one part playing the odds and one part throwing caution—and, in some cases, good sense—to the wind. Without that part, this would have been akin to writing an algorithm.

Here's a taste for what's to come: One of the projected playoff clubs in here only has a 13.1 percent chance of getting there, according to FanGraphs.

As we said, pure hubris. Read on for more.

American League Playoff Picks and Seeds

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Predicting the AL Playoff Field

Seattle Mariners (AL West champions)*

Detroit Tigers (AL Central champions)*

Boston Red Sox (AL East champions)

New York Yankees (Wild Card 1)

Kansas City Royals (Wild Card 2)

Toronto Blue Jays (Wild Card 3)

*First-round byes

Why These Teams?

Seattle Mariners: It just feels like their year, doesn't it? They have the most balanced roster in the AL, with a real likelihood of combining their pitching from 2024 (T-1st in runs allowed) and their offense from 2025 (T-9th in runs scored).

Detroit Tigers: With Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez aboard, this is the deepest rotation Tarik Skubal has ever been a part of. The offense merely needs to be good enough, and one can see No. 1 prospect Kevin McGonigle elevating it.

Boston Red Sox: They have a similar vibe as Detroit, as Garrett Crochet's presence atop an excellent rotation really lightens the load on the offense. That said, there's plenty of room on the "Roman Anthony for AL MVP" bandwagon.

New York Yankees: There's real age and injury risk on this roster, and the AL East will not make it easy. Yet there's still Aaron Judge, and this rotation should have enviable depth once Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Carlos Lagrange enter the fray.

Kansas City Royals: Their recent contention runs have been built on pitching and defense, both of which are still strong. But expect more offense this year, especially if Jac Caglianone has the breakout that never came in 2025.

Toronto Blue Jays: The defending American League champs have already run into injury trouble, which could be an omen for a bad World Series hangover. Yet rest assured, this team has a much higher ceiling than this.

Most Notable Omissions

Baltimore Orioles: Love the offense, but that pitching staff just doesn't seem likely to cut it in a division as powerful as the AL East.

Cleveland Guardians: Their AL Central win last year felt like a fluke even at the time, and they celebrated by doing shockingly little over the offseason.

Houston Astros and Texas Rangers: Both Lone Star clubs seem to be on the downswing, though one should grant that both have too much star power to be written off completely.

National League Playoff Picks and Seeds

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Jackson Chourio

Predicting the NL Playoff Field

Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West champions)*

Chicago Cubs (NL Central champions)*

New York Mets (NL East champions)

Philadelphia Phillies (Wild Card 1)

Milwaukee Brewers (Wild Card 2)

Cincinnati Reds (Wild Card 3)

*First-round byes

Why These Teams?

Los Angeles Dodgers: Age and durability are question marks here, too. But then again, Shohei Ohtani is the best player ever and spots that were weaknesses got addressed with Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz over the winter.

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs won 92 games last year, and their front office finally delivered the offseason fans had been waiting for. Alex Bregman is perfect for this team, and don't forget that Justin Steele is coming back from elbow surgery.

New York Mets: This is the most experimental contender in MLB, and one is not totally sold that it's going to work. Simultaneously, though, one is intrigued by this team's arms and optimistic about its Juan Soto-led lineup.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies are basically running it back, which is the opposite of what they needed to do. Yet stars remain in the right spots, and Andrew Painter and Justin Crawford should bring some youthful energy as rookies.

Milwaukee Brewers: This is a worse team on paper than the squad that won 97 games in 2025. But the Brewers always find a way, and there frankly isn't a bigger dark horse MVP candidate in either league than Jackson Chourio.

Cincinnati Reds: The pitching is going to be there for the Reds, especially once Hunter Greene is back. The offense also looked really good this spring, with Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain both looking like rebound candidates.

Most Notable Omissions

Atlanta Braves: Injuries have already ravaged this rotation, and 2023 was too long ago to still view this offense as a powerhouse.

Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants: Each in their own way resembles a .500 club, and that just won't cut it this year.

Pittsburgh Pirates: They almost got the Reds treatment here, but their ceiling can only go so high as long as Konnor Griffin remains less than MLB-ready.

AL Wild Card Round

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Vinnie Pasquantino

Toronto Blue Jays (6) vs. Boston Red Sox (3)

The Red Sox showed against the Yankees in last year's Wild Card round that having Garrett Crochet is a good way to grab a 1-0 lead. So, they would have that going for them against Toronto.

This would be more of a fair fight in Games 2 and/or 3, with the Blue Jays having the advantage of the better offense. And yet, you'd feel better about Toronto's chances if this series was north of the border and not in Boston.

Red Sox in 3

Kansas City Royals (5) vs. New York Yankees (4)

The Royals just couldn't hit enough to pull off an upset over the Yankees in the ALDS in 2024, losing in four games despite only being outscored by two runs.

Revenge will be in the offing if the Royals do indeed pack more of an offensive punch this year, and Yankee Stadium could actually help them. Lefty sluggers Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone have swings perfect for the short porch.

Royals in 3

NL Wild Card Round

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Kyle Schwarber

Cincinnati Reds (6) vs. New York Mets (3)

The question you want to ask relates to the payroll disparity between these two clubs, which is…[puts abacus to work]… approximately $237 million, not counting luxury tax payments on the Mets' part.

And yet, the Reds are just the right David for this Goliath. A Hunter Greene-Andrew Abbott-Nick Lodolo trio is nasty, and that might not even be their best playoff rotation if Chase Burns captures his potential as a god of whiffs.

Reds in 3

Milwaukee Brewers (5) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (4)

Sorry, let me clean up the drool that spilled upon thinking about Jacob Misiorowski vs. Cristopher Sánchez. And if "The Miz" lives up to his own sky-high upside, that could be how the Brewers open this series with a W.

It's homers that win playoff series, though, and that's where the Brewers will be up against it in a series like this. The venue would have a lot to do with that, as the Phillies hit 58 percent of their homers at Citizens Bank Park last season.

Phillies in 3

AL Division Series Round

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Tarik Skubal

Boston Red Sox (3) vs. Detroit Tigers (2)

If this was the Wild Card round, Game 1 would bring the promise of a Garrett Crochet vs. Tarik Skubal showdown. The hype would be set to maximum.

In this scenario, however, Crochet and Boston's No. 2 and No. 3 starters will have been burned to get the team to the ALDS. Skubal would therefore be up against the Red Sox's No. 4 starter, which would basically be a free W for Detroit.

That alone could be what swings this series. Because if it's a question of which team is deeper and more talented, it might honestly be a push.

Tigers in 5

Kansas City Royals (5) vs. Seattle Mariners (1)

Though Bobby Witt Jr. would be the best player in this series, the Mariners are one of very few teams with two players who can challenge him in that regard.

There's obviously the 60-homer man himself, Cal Raleigh, but also Julio Rodríguez. He's basically a 30-30 threat and a 6-WAR player on a 162-game basis even though he doesn't wake up until the second half, and this is a good year for that to change.

The Mariners would also have the pitching edge in this series, and not just because the Royals will have been through the Wild Card round. They just don't get scored on at home, where they have a league-best 3.20 ERA since 2022.

Mariners in 3

NL Division Series Round

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Dodgers vs. Phillies, Game 4 of 2026 NLDS

Cincinnati Reds (6) vs. Chicago Cubs (2)

A series such as this should favor the Cubs. They're simply a more complete team than the Reds, and they would have a real home-field advantage. They went 50-31 at the Friendly Confines last season.

And yet, that Reds rotation is just such a tantalizing equalizer. And its high ceiling could easily provide an advantage in this series, as the Cubs' own rotation is more of a high-floor type.

Now for another reason to lean into the "Cincinnati as Cinderella" theory: The Reds were good at pestering the Cubs last year, winning eight out of 13.

Reds in 5

Philadelphia Phillies (4) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)

The Phillies lost to the Dodgers in four games in last year's NLDS, but three of the four losses were by two or fewer runs—indeed, they actually outscored the Dodgers by two runs for the series.

Revenge is therefore not to be written off, particularly if Zack Wheeler is anything like his pre-surgery self in tandem with Cristopher Sánchez. And besides, this Phillies team just seems due, doesn't it?

These are all valid reasons to pick them… but the pick here is still the Dodgers. They're simply the better team, and having the first-round bye to rest and line up their rotation may be the only advantage they need.

Dodgers in 4

American League Championship Series

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Julio Rodríguez

Detroit Tigers (2) vs. Seattle Mariners (1)

Simply thinking about this series is anxiety-inducing. The matchup between these clubs in the 2025 ALDS was a tense affair capped off by an all-timer in Game 5.

If you're the Tigers, the thing you're taking to the bank vis-à-vis the Mariners in 2026 is this: There's no way they're going 4-0 against Tarik Skubal again.

The odds will definitely be in their favor there, and the depth underneath Skubal is just so much greater than what the Tigers had against Seattle last October. And on offense, the Tigers have a proper Mariner killer in Kerry Carpenter.

Yet at the risk of sounding like a broken record, the Mariners are the better team.

In Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez, they would have the two best hitters in the series. They're sandwiched between three other All-Stars in Seattle's lineup, and the M's bullpen likewise goes deeper.

Speaking of, might as well call a shot: Come the end of 2026, Ryan Sloan will be the X-factor for Seattle that Detroit wanted Jackson Jobe to be in 2024.

Mariners in 6

National League Championship Series

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Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Cincinnati Reds (6) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)

It would have been a heck of a story if the Reds had taken down the Dodgers in the Wild Card round last year, but they were outclassed offensively. They gave up 18 runs in two games, scoring only two of their own.

As alluded to earlier, the assumption here is that the Reds are going to pack more of a punch at the plate. Beyond rebounds by Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain, that can happen with the power they expect from Eugenio Suárez and a breakout by Sal Stewart, who was terrific (1.065 OPS) in spring training.

Yet here's where the "Reds as Dodgers killers" fantasy dies: This is where their rotation could finally meet its match.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto would be the best pitcher on either team in this series, and you might take a healthy Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and/or Shohei Ohtani over any of the Reds' guys in their own right.

There's also a difference between an offense that could beat expectations and an offense for which expectations are through the roof. The Reds have the former. The Dodgers have the latter.

Dodgers in 5

World Series

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The Mariners celebrate clinching the AL West in 2025.

Seattle Mariners (1) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)

At least as things look right now, these are the two best teams in baseball. This is also the most interesting possible World Series matchup, and here's why:

Dodgers: Looking to be the third franchise to win three straight World Series

Mariners: Have never made the World Series in 50 years of existence

As for which is the better team, the easy and right answer is the Dodgers. FanGraphs gives the Mariners the second-best World Series odds of any team, but first is the Dodgers. And by a lot, at 26.5 percent to 8.9 percent.

However, the Mariners have a smaller talent gap than most in relation to the Dodgers. The stars and the depth are both there on both sides of the ball. They could also have a couple oh-so-crucial Shohei Ohtani silencers in lefties Gabe Speier and Jose A. Ferrer.

For another thing, fatigue could be even more of a threat to the Dodgers this October than it was last October. Everyone is another year older, and no team has played even remotely as much baseball over the last two years.

So, what the heck. Caution, meet wind. And remember, Mariners fans, it's only a jinx if it ends up being wrong.

Mariners in 6

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.