Projecting a March Madness-Style NFL Tournament for the 2026 Season

With the 2026 NCAA men's basketball tournament in full swing, most of the sporting world is fully focused on March Madness. We're also in the thick of NFL free agency, a period in which teams are aggressively preparing for the 2026 season.

A lot has transpired since the end of the 2025 campaign, including a cascade of coaching changes, quarterback swaps, and frenzied free-agent spending. On paper, many teams are dramatically better or worse than they were a couple of months ago.

Here, we'll have a little fun and examine how a March Madness-style NFL tournament might look if the league were to hold such an event in the fall—is it really a stretch to think the NFL might try to cash in on its version of the NBA Cup?

For this exercise, the league was broken down into East, West, North, and South regional brackets with teams seeded based on recent performances, offseason moves, overall roster makeup, and any relevant team-specific factors. We'll also dive into the hypothetical opening-round matchups.

East Region

AP Photo/Bart Young

Bills QB Josh Allen

8. Miami Dolphins vs. 1. Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills didn't even win the AFC East last year, but the addition of wide receiver D.J. Moore makes them one of the biggest Super Bowl threats in the entire NFL. While the firing of head coach Sean McDermott did create some uncertainty, Josh Allen is still at the helm of the offense. Buffalo is the team to beat in the East.

The Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, may be actively trying to tank in 2026. They added a promising young quarterback in Malik Willis, but they've also torn down their roster, parting with the likes of Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Bradley Chubb—who, ironically, is now in Buffalo.

Miami is this tournament's version of a mid-major.

Familiarity might give the Dolphins a fighting chance in this matchup—they did beat the Bills in November—but a typical opening-round blowout would be more likely. Buffalo is built to win now, while Miami is built to chase draft positioning.

7. New York Jets vs. 2. New England Patriots

The New York Jets might not be tanking as hard as the Dolphins. They've at least added talented players like Nahshon Wright, David Onyemata, and Fitzpatrick. However, it's hard to envision an underwhelming defense and a Geno Smith-led offense carrying the Jets deep into the tournament.

The New England Patriots, meanwhile, are likely to take a step back after overachieving in 2025. However, they still have a great head coach in Mike Vrabel, an MVP-caliber quarterback in Drake Maye, and a balanced roster that added some key players in free agency.

New England's list of additions includes Alijah Vera-Tucker, Romeo Doubs, Kevin Byard III, and Dre'Mont Jones.

The Patriots won both 2025 games over the Jets convincingly, and it's hard to think a tournament setting would lead to a different outcome.

6. New York Giants vs. 3. Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles had their fair share of issues in 2025, specifically on offense. However, they'll remain the biggest threat in the NFC East if new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion can sort out his side of the ball.

Hanging onto star receiver A.J. Brown would help, too, though ProFootball Talk's Mike Florio has reported that many around the league view a Brown trade as "inevitable."

That said, the Eagles should be on upset alert here. The New York Giants landed one of the NFL's more successful head coaches in John Harbaugh, and he's bringing plenty of tournament experience to the proverbial table.

The Giants also have an intriguing roster that features young difference-makers like Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers, Abdul Carter, and free-agent addition Isaiah Likely. Skattebo and Nabers are coming off of season-ending injuries, but New York is a team on the upswing.

5. Washington Commanders vs. 4. Dallas Cowboys

The selection committee might get some pushback on having the Washington Commanders seeded this low after reaching the NFC title game in 2024. However, the rash of injuries they sustained last season—along with no shortage of bad defense—puts Washington back into a gotta-prove-it situation.

That doesn't mean that Washington couldn't prove it in a one-game series against the Dallas Cowboys. Quarterback Jayden Daniels is expected to be at 100 percent by the fall, and Washington has added high-end players like Odafe Oweh, Leo Chenal, Chigoziem Okonkwo, and Rachaad White this offseason.

Like the Commanders, the Cowboys have their sights set on 2026 redemption. They, too, must prove themselves after a seven-win season. However, offensive centerpieces Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, and Javonte Williams are set to return alongside an improved defense.

Dallas has already added the likes of Rashan Gary, Jalen Thompson, and P.J. Locke to its defense this offseason and may use both of its first-round draft picks on defenders.

The Bleacher Report Scouting Department paired the Cowboys with Texas Tech edge-rusher David Bailey and Cincinnati linebacker Jake Golday in its latest mock draft.

South Region

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

Titans edge Will Anderson Jr.

8. Tennessee Titans vs. 1. Houston Texans

The Houston Texans didn't win the AFC South this past season, but they did advance to the divisional round for the third straight year. Questions remain about whether C.J. Stroud is truly a franchise quarterback, but an elite defense and an upgraded offensive cast can carry this team far.

Houston's list of additions includes running back David Montgomery, offensive tackle Braden Smith, and guard Wyatt Teller.

The Tennessee Titans are trying to return to relevance after a three-win campaign. They have a promising quarterback in second-year man Cam Ward, and they did add the likes of head coach Robert Saleh, receiver Wan'Dale Robinson, and defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers this offseason.

However, an improved Titans roster isn't the same as a good one. Divisional familiarity is the only thing that might keep this matchup close.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. 2. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars did win the AFC South in 2025, and they'd be a tough matchup for a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that just had its streak of NFC South championships snapped.

The Jags featured a potent offense in 2025, thanks to a career year by quarterback Trevor Lawrence. However, Jacksonville's defensive back seven left something to be desired, and the team lost star running back Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency.

Heading into the draft, Jacksonville is weaker, on paper, than it was a year ago. The Jaguars don't hold a first-round draft selection either, due to the trade up for Travis Hunter.

Tampa, meanwhile, suffered a 2025 collapse due to offensive injuries and some questionable-at-best defensive performances. The Bucs haven't made any major additions yet, and they lost star receiver Mike Evans.

6. New Orleans Saints vs. 3. Carolina Panthers

It's not totally outlandish to believe that the New Orleans Saints are the better team in this matchup. The Saints appear to have found their quarterback in Tyler Shough, and they've added legitimate difference-makers like Etienne, guard David Edwards, and linebacker Kaden Elliss in free agency.

After finishing last year's six-win season with four victories in the final five weeks, New Orleans should continue taking positive steps.

Carolina saw continued growth from quarterback Bryce Young in 2025, though it had an average overall offense, finished with a losing record, and recorded just two wins against playoff teams. Still, the Panthers deserve some credit for winning the NFC South.

The Panthers did add standout defenders Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd this offseason, but they don't boast a roster that is clearly better than New Orleans'. This one could go either way.

5. Atlanta Falcons vs. 4. Indianapolis Colts

The South's four-five matchup features a pair of teams that could be contenders if they can just answer some quarterback questions.

The Indianapolis Colts started the 2025 season with a 7-1 record. However, quarterback Daniel Jones cooled off after that and then suffered a season-ending Achilles tear. Indianapolis didn't win a game after its Week 11 bye, and if Jones isn't cleared to play by the fall, the Colts can expect an early tournament exit.

Indy's biggest moves this offseason have involved re-signing Jones, extending wide receiver Alec Pierce, and trading away wideout Michael Pittman Jr.

The Atlanta Falcons have their own quarterback injury to navigate, as Michael Penix Jr. is coming off a torn ACL. Of course, he isn't widely expected to start in the fall after Atlanta added Tua Tagovailoa as a placeholder.

Can Tagovailoa be a functional starter in Atlanta? Will new head coach Kevin Stefanski get more out of an offense that fields playmakers like Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts? If the answer to both questions is "yes," the Falcons can make some real noise in the South.

North Region

AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps

Bears QB Caleb Williams

8. Cleveland Browns vs. 1. Chicago Bears

Did the Chicago Bears get a little lucky in 2025? Sure. Their defense relied heavily on takeaways but wasn't very good overall, and that usually isn't a sustainable recipe. However, the Bears still have a threatening offense and arguably the league's best young quarterback in Caleb Williams.

The Bears churned over much of their defense in free agency, and it remains to be seen if different means better for Dennis Allen's unit. Even after trading D.J. Moore, though, head coach Ben Johnson has the weapons needed to field an elite offense and a playoff-caliber team.

The Cleveland Browns are on the opposite end of the spectrum from Chicago. They don't have a long-term answer at quarterback, along with one of the NFL's worst offensive rosters. They have a very talented defense, but it didn't regularly generate takeaways or keep opponents off the scoreboard.

These two teams played in December, with Chicago grabbing a 31-3 victory. Fans could expect a similar result in a tournament opener.

7. Minnesota Vikings vs. 2. Baltimore Ravens

This matchup has the potential to be the biggest upset of the opening round and will hinge on a couple of factors.

For the Baltimore Ravens, things will depend on new head coach Jesse Minter getting more out of a defense that ranked just 24th overall last season. While the Ravens lost offensive standouts Tyler Linderbaum and Isaiah Likely, they still have an MVP-caliber quarterback in Lamar Jackson.

Bringing in edge-rusher Trey Hendrickson will certainly help make Minter's job easier.

For the Minnesota Vikings, everything will depend on new quarterback Kyler Murray becoming an efficient and consistent player for the first time in his career. Between head coach Kevin O'Connell, pass-catchers like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, and an above-average defense, Minnesota is giving Murray all the pieces needed to succeed.

Despite getting mostly below-average quarterback play from J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer, the Vikings managed to win nine games in 2025.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. 3. Detroit Lions

It certainly feels like the Detroit Lions' Super Bowl window is closing quickly. Three years ago, Detroit came within a few plays of winning the NFC title game. Two years ago, it claimed the NFC's No. 1 seed but exited in the divisional round. Last year, the Lions won nine games and missed the playoffs entirely.

This offseason the Lions released left tackle Taylor Decker and traded away running back David Montgomery.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, who won in Detroit in December, could pull off the upset here if they find a capable starting quarterback. Pittsburgh has a new head coach in Mike McCarthy and has been uncharacteristically aggressive in the offseason—adding the likes of Michael Pittman Jr., Rico Dowdle, Jaquan Brisker, and Jamel Dean.

However, the Steelers have been content to wait for 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers to make a decision about his playing future—NFL Network's Ian Rapoport told Good Morning Football (h/t Jacob Punturi of SI.com) that a decision is expected to come before the draft—with 2025 sixth-round pick Will Howard waiting as an underwhelming Plan B.

5. Cincinnati Bengals vs. 4. Green Bay Packers

The Cincinnati Bengals don't have any quarterback questions when Joe Burrow is 100 percent healthy, and while Burrow hasn't always managed to stay on the field through an entire season, he should be healthy in the fall.

Cincinnati's putrid defense, of course, has held back the Bengals even when Burrow has been behind center over the last two years. However, the Bengals finally took an aggressive approach to addressing the defense this offseason, adding the likes of edge-rusher Boye Mafe, safety Bryan Cook, and defensive lineman Jonathan Allen.

If the Bengals' defense is, in fact, much-improved, they could win a game or two in the tournament.

Of course, the Green Bay Packers will provide a tough initial test, especially if star pass-rusher Micah Parsons (torn ACL) is healthy for the matchup. Green Bay has lost more than it gained through the early offseason but still boasts a young, balanced roster and an above-average head coach in Matt LaFleur.

West Region

AP Photo/Stephen Brashea

Rams QB Matthew Stafford

8. Arizona Cardinals vs. 1. Los Angeles Rams

Some fans might be surprised to see the Los Angeles Rams as the top seed in the West over the defending-champion Seattle Seahawks. However, Seattle has lost quite a few pieces this offseason, while the Rams added two top-tier cornerbacks in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.

With Matthew Stafford back at quarterback, offensive playmakers like Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams in tow, and an improved defense, L.A. has the look of a top overall seed.

Bleacher Report's Moe Moton recently placed the Rams at No. 1 on his list of the NFL's top 10 rosters.

The Arizona Cardinals have given the Rams problems in the past, but they're coming off a three-win season, have an unproven new head coach in Mike LaFleur, and haven't improved their roster in the offseason. Additions like Gardner Minshew and Tyler Allgeier have been added merely to tread water.

The Cardinals are clearly building for 2027 and beyond, and they should be an easy out in the opening round.

7. Las Vegas Raiders vs. 2. Denver Broncos

Making the Denver Broncos a No. 2 seed was difficult, as their roster is just as complete as Los Angeles'. Denver earned the AFC's No. 1 seed last year, might have reached the Super Bowl had quarterback Bo Nix been healthy, and just added wide receiver Jaylen Waddle—who might be the missing piece of the offensive puzzle.

When picking between two top-tier teams with Super Bowl-winning coaches and balanced rosters, though, the edge goes to the team with the better quarterback. Stafford is the reigning MVP.

Of course, Denver has the goods to go deep in the tournament, and it should avoid an upset over the Las Vegas Raiders. However, should and will are two different things.

Las Vegas played a pair of tight games against Denver this past season, and it has a much better overall situation now. Additions like head coach Klint Kubiak, center Tyler Linderbaum, and receiver Jalen Nailor should pair well with projected No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. Even if the Raiders aren't good in 2026, they should be fun.

6. Kansas City Chiefs vs. 3. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks won Super Bowl LX convincingly, but they've since lost key contributors like running back Kenneth Walker III, safety Coby Bryant, cornerback Riq Woolen, and edge-rusher Boye Mafe. With Brian Fleury replacing Kubiak as offensive coordinator, there could also be an adjustment period on that side of the ball.

Seattle still has a top-five roster, but it should be legitimately concerned with its first-round matchup.

A lot will hinge on whether Patrick Mahomes (torn ACL) is healthy by the fall. Kansas City tends to be relevant when he's under center, and the Chiefs have made some sneaky-good additions this offseason.

Kansas City added Walker, cornerback Kader Kohou, and safety Alohi Gilman while trading McDuffie for an extra first-round pick. The B/R Scouting Department paired the Chiefs with Miami edge-rusher Rueben Bain Jr. and Tennessee receiver Chris Brazzell II in its latest mock draft.

By September, the Chiefs may have a complete roster capable of challenging the defending champs.

5. Los Angeles Chargers vs. 4. San Francisco 49ers

This matchup between 2025 wild-card teams would be an intriguing one.

The Los Angeles Chargers have made the playoffs in both seasons under head coach Jim Harbaugh. They featured a top-five defense in 2025 and another impressive campaign by quarterback Justin Herbert. They've since taken steps to better support Herbert, signing center Tyler Biadasz and guard Cole Strange.

The San Francisco 49ers, meanwhile, managed to overcome multiple key injuries to reach the divisional round in 2025. The defense overperformed, but Kyle Shanahan's offense was typically efficient despite not having a true No. 1 receiver on the perimeter—and the addition of Mike Evans should help rectify that issue.

Styles make fights, and this matchup would bring together two very different teams with opposing strengths in what might be the most thrilling battle of the opening round. It wouldn't be a shock to see either of these two win and then go on a Cinderella run.