Teams on Upset Alert on Day 3 of 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament
The 2026 NCAA tournament wasted little time giving us the first memorable upset of March Madness, with No. 12 seed High Point upending No. 5 seed Wisconsin in an outcome that busted more than a few brackets.
That serves as an important warning to the rest of the tournament field that no matchup is safe, and the next upset could be waiting just around the corner.
We've highlighted four teams that are on upset alert heading into their second round matchup on Saturday, and what they'll need to do to avoid getting sent home earlier than expected.
Arkansas Razorbacks (No. 4 Seed, West Region)
1 of 4
Opponent: No. 12 High Point
Moneyline: Arkansas (-700)
The High Point Panthers did a great job weathering big games from the No. 5 seed Wisconsin Badgers guard tandem of Nick Boyd (27 points) and Justin Blackwell (22 points) to pull out an 83-82 upset on Thursday.
Can they do the same against All-American Darius Acuff Jr. and the Arkansas Razorbacks?
Acuff (24 points) and fellow guard Meleek Thomas (21 points) led the charge for the Razorbacks in a lopsided 97-78 victory over Hawaii, but the Rainbow Warriors were unable to keep pace with the rest of the Arkansas lineup.
If the Panthers can again limit mistakes (six turnovers on Thursday), hold their own the glass (40-37 rebounding edge) and create easy baskets (16 fast-break points), they'll have a shot at the Sweet 16.
Duke Blue Devils (No. 1 Seed, East Region)
2 of 4
Opponent: No. 9 TCU
Moneyline: Duke (-700)
The Duke Blue Devils managed to avoid becoming the third No. 1 seed in NCAA tournament history to fall, but an upstart Siena team gave them everything they could handle in the opening round.
They trailed 43-32 at halftime and didn't take the lead for good until the final five minutes in a 71-65 victory, falling miles short of the 28.5-point spread that was given to the tournament's No. 1 overall team.
It was no doubt a valuable wake-up call for a Blue Devils team that expected to roll, but now things get significantly more difficult against Big 12 foe TCU in the second round.
The Horned Frogs have seven Quad 1 wins this season, including victories over No. 1 seed Florida and No. 2 seed Iowa State, so they have already proven capable of taking down a top-tier opponent.
Gonzaga Bulldogs (No. 3 Seed, West Region)
3 of 4
Opponent: No. 11 Texas
Moneyline: Gonzaga (-245)
Twice in recent NCAA tournament history a team has emerged from one of the First Four games to make it all the way to the Final Four, with VCU (2011) and UCLA (2021) both using that extra game as a way to build momentum.
Could this year's Texas squad follow suit?
The Longhorns allowed a 35-point, 10-rebound performance to All-American AJ Dybantsa in their opener against No. 6 seed BYU, but still came away with a 79-71 victory.
The matchup of Gonzaga star Graham Ike against Texas center Matas Vokietaitis could be the X-factor. The Longhorns big man had a 23-point, 16-rebound effort on Thursday, and Texas is 11-3 when he scores more than 15 points.
Illinois Fighting Illini (No. 3 Seed, South Region)
4 of 4
Opponent: No. 11 VCU
Moneyline: Illinois (-550)
The Illinois Fighting Illini had a difficult time slowing down Wisconsin's standout guard play during the Big Ten tournament, allowing a combined 69 points to Nick Boyd and Justin Blackwell in a 91-88 overtime loss.
Their high-powered offense cruised to a 105-70 victory over Penn in the opening round, but they'll need to clamp down on the defensive end against a more dangerous VCU team with a standout guard of its own.
Terrence Hill Jr. poured in 34 points on 7-of-10 from beyond the arc in an 82-78 upset victory over North Carolina, adding five rebounds and five assists along the way.
It will take more than just a good game from Hill to keep up with Illinois, but after the Fighting Illini were not tested in their opener, they'll need to flip the switch or risk getting upset on Saturday.
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