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Buy or Sell Will Warren and MLB Spring Training's Most Surprising Players
In case anyone forgot while the World Baseball Classic was going on, MLB spring training has also been happening. There have even been some pleasant surprises!
But since spring training surprises are notoriously tricky, it's time for a special game of "Buy or Sell?"
Normally, we just come down on a verdict of "Buy" or "Sell." This time around, we're splitting things up and sorting 15 surprise players into one of five categories:
This was about reading whatever tea leaves are available, with the idea being to look for key performance indicators that can or can't be trusted.
Strong Buys
1 of 5
Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds: 15 G, 6 HR, .545 AVG, .592 OBP, 1.045 SLG
McLain was a legitimately good hitter back in 2023, posting a 127 OPS+ as a rookie for the Reds. Then he missed all of 2024 after shoulder surgery, and he didn't look the same in his return last year.
You can therefore see good health in his hot spring just in the abstract, and it shows in the metrics, too. Everything looks good, but best of all is an 18-point drop in whiff rate and 3.4 mph gain in exit velocity relative to 2025.
Mick Abel, Minnesota Twins: 5 G, 18.0 IP, 12 H, 3 BB, 23 K, 2.00 ERA
Abel was a top-100 prospect annually between 2021 and 2024 before he hit a wall in the minors and fell out of favor. Yet he started to find his groove with Minnesota's Triple-A affiliate last season, and he may still be in it.
That's a heck of a K/BB ratio, and he's one of nine pitchers with a whiff rate north of 30 percent this spring. The fastball is averaging 96.4 mph, and he's showing more confidence in a curveball that misses bats.
Drew Anderson, Detroit Tigers: 5 G, 12.1 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 17 K, 0.73 ERA
Anderson dominated in Korea last year, fanning 245 batters over 171.2 innings while also holding down a 2.25 ERA. And whether you prefer the anecdotal or the statistical, there's some real hype for him out there.
As stats go, he's one of only 10 pitchers with a whiff rate over 30 percent this spring, and his batted ball metrics include average exit velocity of 82.9 mph and a 23.1 hard-hit rate. This is bonkers stuff, even if his Opponent Quality is a little lacking.
Soft Buys
2 of 5
Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox: 5 G, 16.1 IP, 13 H, 6 BB, 15 K, 2.20 ERA
This is basically a continuation of what Kay did in Japan, where he had a 1.74 ERA over 24 appearances for Yokohama. And while his spring performance is light on strikeouts, that isn't necessarily a deal-breaker.
He only fanned 130 batters in 155 innings in 2025, so there was clearly good contact management going on. And so it goes this spring. Batted balls off him have averaged just 87.0 mph, albeit with ground balls on only 16 of 44 balls in play.
Max Muncy, Athletics: 18 G, 4 HR, .386 AVG, .471 OBP, .773 SLG
This is the other Max Muncy, of course, and the A's must love to see this after he flopped with a .638 OPS in 63 games with the big club last year.
That slugging percentage packs what should be a wholly unsustainable punch, but he really has clobbered the ball this spring. His average exit velocity is up 5.5 mph, and he's added over 20 percentage points to his hard-hit rate.
Tommy White, Athletics: 17 G, 4 HR, .441 AVG, .459 OBP, .853 SLG
White's bat-to-ball skill has been his primary calling card since the A's drafted him in 2024, so it's actually not surprising to see him with only five strikeouts in 34 at-bats.
More interesting is how hard he hit the ball before the A's reassigned him early this week. He registered a 66.7 hard-hit percentage that ranks in the top 10 for the spring. The more granular details show pop to all fields, so this may be a good time to buy stock in yet another ascendant young A's hitter.
Shrug
3 of 5
Will Warren, New York Yankees: 5 G, 20.1 IP, 12 H, 3 BB, 16 K, 1.77 ERA
Warren is slated to be the Yankees' No. 3 starter until Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole are back, so he's looking the part. Yet even if he's throwing strikes, he's not exactly blowing hitters away given that he's only fanned 16 of the 76 he's faced.
Small gains in fastball velocity and whiff rate suggest he should be doing better, and his experiments with his mound placement and PitchCom are notable. Still, there isn't quite enough here to read into a full-on ace evolution.
Josh Smith, Texas Rangers: 16 G, 4 HR, .395 AVG, .531 OBP, .789 SLG
This sure looks like a guy who's about to build on back-to-back seasons of 3-plus rWAR. Probably the best sign concerns his approach, as he has 11 walks against nine strikeouts.
It's the power that doesn't quite pass the smell test. Smith is an undersized guy at 5'9", 172 pounds, and he's not even hitting the ball at an average of 90 mph this spring.
Rece Hinds, Cincinnati Reds: 20 G, 5 HR, .395 AVG, .452 OBP, .947 SLG
Hinds has struck out in darn near 40 percent of his MLB plate appearances, and that issue is persisting this spring. In 38 at-bats, he's fanned 13 times. So, that's alarming.
He is hitting the ball harder at an average of 94.5 mph, and that's with a substantially improved barrel rate (24.0 vs. 15.4) over last season. But then again, saying "Rece Hinds has good pop" is a bit like saying "water is wet."
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Soft Sells
4 of 5
Didier Fuentes, Atlanta Braves: 3 G, 9.0 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 17 K, 0.00 ERA
Yes, Fuentes has basically pitched a no-hitter in spring training. Per Baseball Reference's Opponent Quality metric, however, he's done so against Double-A levels of competition.
Even so, his trusty fastball is up 0.9 mph on average compared to his 2025 breakthrough, and that comes with a 42.5 Whiff%. No matter the competition, you'd rather see that than not see it.
Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox: 5 G, 17.0 IP, 11 H, 5 BB, 16 K, 1.59 ERA
Early not only broke in with the Red Sox last year, but also ended up starting an elimination game in the playoffs. He's clearly talented, and they're clearly high on him.
This said, that ERA against that K/BB ratio doesn't look quite right. And once you throw in that he's been hit at an average of 91.8 mph, even the 1 mph gain in fastball velocity doesn't do enough heavy lifting for his spring as a whole.
James Tibbs III, Los Angeles Dodgers: 20 G, 3 HR, .326 AVG, .392 OBP, .651 SLG
Tibbs has already been reassigned to minor league camp, so that's one reason to take his spring with a grain of salt. Another is that he struck out 20 times in 43 at-bats.
Still, he's the type who may be able to get away with a "swing hard in case you hit it" approach. Before he was reassigned, he averaged 93.2 mph on his batted balls with a 60.0 hard-hit rate and a 24.0 barrel rate. Those are elite-level figures.
Strong Sells
5 of 5
Jordan Beck, Colorado Rockies: 15 G, 2 HR, .326 AVG, .420 OBP, .628 SLG
Beck was one of the Rockies' five best prospects back in 2024. And at least by Rockies standards, he was a semi-decent regular in 2025.
Still, this spring has "Buyer Beware!" written all over it. Beck has 14 strikeouts against seven walks, with a 41.9 Whiff%. Between that and just the two homers, there's a lot of BABIP-related luck going on here.
Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners: 5 G, 15.0 IP, 16 H, 1 BB, 21 K, 5.40 ERA
The ERA is ugly, but Hancock's 21 strikeouts are second among all pitchers for the spring. When paired with just the one walk, you can't help but wonder if the Mariners may finally have something with their 2020 first-rounder.
Evidence in favor of "yes" include the third-highest whiff rate of any starter this spring. But he's also been hit even harder this spring than he was in the majors last year, when he ran a 4.90 ERA over 90 innings.
Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals: 5 G, 17.1 IP, 14 H, 5 BB, 20 K, 4.58 ERA
Here, we have another case of a high ERA and a surprisingly high strikeout count. Leahy only fanned 8.2 batters per nine innings for the Cardinals last year, so him making the leap from there would be huge.
Yet his whiff rate for the spring is somehow only 18.3 percent. That is nowhere near top-notch, and none of his six offerings has so much as a 22 percent whiff rate individually. Basically half his strikeouts (nine, to be exact) have been of the looking variety, and that is not sustainable even in MLB's new ABS era.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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