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2026 Men's NCAA Tournament, B/R Expert Predictions for First Round

Kerry MillerMar 18, 2026

The first Thursday and Friday of the men's NCAA tournament are the most glorious days of the sports calendar.

It's a two-day long gorging on a metaphorical box of chocolates, never knowing what you're going to get—aside from a bracket that ends up in shambles and probably back pain from too many hours glued to the couch.

We love the tournament because of its unpredictability. And yet, it's part of our job to make predictions.

So here goes nothing, with thoughts and picks for all 32 first-round games.

No. 7 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 10 Santa Clara Broncos

1 of 16
Missouri v Kentucky
Kentucky's Otega Oweh

Matchup: No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Santa Clara (Midwest Regional)

Details: Friday at 12:15 p.m. ET (CBS), St. Louis

One-Sentence Synopsis: The former kings of the one-and-done pipeline to the NBA, Kentucky will need to find a way to stifle Santa Clara's phenomenal freshman, Allen Graves.

Kentucky Wins If: It makes its free throws. Santa Clara ranks 335th in the nation in fouls per game, as well as 338th in fouls drawn, routinely allowing considerably more freebies than it takes. And in a game that projects as a nail-biter, Kentucky could take care of business one point at a time.

Santa Clara Wins If: It protects the paint. In the Broncos' three losses to Gonzaga, the Zags shot a combined 79-for-117 (67.5 percent) from inside the arc. A lot of that was just Graham Ike being Graham Ike, and Kentucky doesn't have anything close to that type of "let the big dog eat" frontcourt menace, but Santa Clara is 23-1 when holding its opponent below 59 percent on two-point attempts.

Star to Watch: If making free throws and hitting a good percentage of two-pointers is the clearest path to a Kentucky victory, this game clearly hinges on Otega Oweh, who has attempted 147 more twos and 83 more free throws than his closest teammate. He averages 18.2 points per game, but he couldn't get anything to fall in the trio of losses to Florida. (Granted, Santa Clara doesn't exactly have Florida's frontcourt.)

Predictions

David Kenyon: Santa Clara

Kerry Miller: Santa Clara

Joel Reuter: Santa Clara

No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 12 Akron Zips

2 of 16
TCU v Texas Tech
Texas Tech's Christian Anderson

Matchup: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Akron (Midwest Regional)

Details: Friday at 12:40 p.m. ET (truTV), Tampa

One-Sentence Synopsis: Both of these teams rank top 10 in the nation in three-pointers made per game.

Texas Tech Wins If: It recovers from a rough finish. Texas Tech originally weathered the storm, winning its first three games after losing JT Toppin to a torn ACL. But the Red Raiders have been a mess thus far in March, especially in the second half of games when fatigue becomes a factor, outscored 120-76 after the intermission of those three consecutive losses.

Akron Wins If: It out-shoots the Red Raiders. Forgive the John Madden-like "the team who scores the most points is probably going to win the game" hot take here, but this game figures to boil down to whose trio of three-point shooters has the better day. Tavari Johnson, Shammah Scott and Bowen Hardman have each made at least 75 triples on the year. But TTU's Donovan Atwell, Christian Anderson and Jaylen Petty sure can make it rain, too.

Star to Watch: Christian Anderson was overshadowed by Toppin through the first three-plus months of the season, but he has been a phenomenal lead guard for this squad, averaging 18.9 points and 7.6 assists per game. He's a good eight inches taller than Markquis Nowell, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that he puts on a show similar to what Kansas State's star did during the 2023 run to the Elite Eight.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Akron

Kerry Miller: Akron

Joel Reuter: Texas Tech

No. 1 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 16 Long Island Sharks

3 of 16
Arizona v Colorado
Arizona's Brayden Burries

Matchup: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Long Island (West Regional)

Details: Friday at 1:35 p.m. ET (TNT), San Diego

One-Sentence Synopsis: NEC champ looks to pull off another Fairleigh Dickinson-level miracle.

Arizona Wins If: Size reigns supreme. We've talked a lot this season about how little Arizona relies on three-pointers, but the Wildcats are the only team in the field with a 3PA/FGA rate (26.8) lower than LIU's (29.0). The problem with that plan for the Sharks is that all four of their primary scorers are 6'5" or shorter, and 7'2" Motiejus Krivas anchors an elite defense frontcourt for Arizona. Points should be hard to come by for LIU.

Long Island Wins If: 2023 Arizona shows up. That was the year that the Wildcats scored six points in the final 11 minutes of a disastrous collapse against a Princeton team that didn't even reach 60 points. And that was an Arizona team that almost led the nation in effective field-goal percentage, so never say never. But the Sharks—who rank 239th in offensive efficiency and 186th in defense efficiency—very likely need the Wildcats to beat themselves here.

Star to Watch: Brayden Burries will be jetting off to the NBA draft lottery whenever Arizona's tournament run ends, but he has scored at least 20 points in five of his last seven games. He is the leading scorer of a team that has seven guys averaging at least nine points per game.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Arizona

Kerry Miller: Arizona

Joel Reuter: Arizona

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No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 14 Wright State Raiders

4 of 16
Virginia v Duke
Virginia's Ugonna Onyenso

Matchup: No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 Wright State (Midwest Regional)

Details: Friday at 1:50 p.m. ET (TBS), Philadelphia

One-Sentence Synopsis: Virginia is looking to avoid what would be a sixth loss to a double-digit seed in the span of 10 NCAA tournaments.

Virginia Wins If: The offense shows up. If you haven't watched Virginia this season, here's your heads up that these are not the snail-paced Cavaliers of yore, averaging better than 80 points per game with a wide range of scoring options. It's also the best offensive rebounding team that Virginia has had in decades, so it should be much more immune to the type of low-scoring duds that knocked them out early in recent tournaments.

Wright State Wins If: Virginia has another first-round dud up its sleeve. The Cavaliers did win it all in 2019, but that's the only time in their last five tournament appearances that they won a game, losing to No. 13 seed Furman in 2023, No. 13 seed Ohio in 2021 and, of course, No. 16 seed UMBC in 2018. Maybe the Raiders—who went 0-7 vs. KenPom top 150 this season and barely rank top 200 on defense—benefit from a similar gift.

Star to Watch: It's kind of funny that after all those years of defensive greatness under Tony Bennett, this is the year Virginia has its highest block percentage. Ugonna Onyenso averages 3.0 rejections per game for the year, but he had 21 across three games played in the ACC tournament. Could we witness a points-rebounds-blocks triple-double here?

Predictions

David Kenyon: Virginia

Kerry Miller: Virginia

Joel Reuter: Virginia

No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 15 Tennessee State Tigers

5 of 16
Iowa State v Utah
Iowa State's Joshua Jefferson

Matchup: No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Tennessee State (Midwest Regional)

Details: Friday at 2:50 p.m. ET (CBS), St. Louis

One-Sentence Synopsis: Ball control will be paramount in this battle of teams who both rank top 12 in the nation in steal percentage.

Iowa State Wins If: It makes a decent chunk of its free throws. In its pursuit of steals, Tennessee State fouls a ton. But Iowa State is almost the worst free-throw shooting team in the field. (LIU is 0.4 percent worse than ISU.) The Cyclones aren't exactly coming in hot on that front, either, going 27-for-47 (57.4 percent) on one-pointers in the Big 12 tournament. And few things are more demoralizing than bricking freebie after freebie.

Tennessee State Wins If: Iowa State takes the game for granted. Aside from generating a good number of steals, Tennessee State doesn't do anything particularly well—and the Cyclones are even better than the Tigers in the steals department. The only time this team faced a top 50 foe this season, it lost by 29 to Tennessee. But Iowa State has had a few weird no-shows in the past two months and could just come out flat against a team playing with its hair on fire.

Star to Watch: Joshua Jefferson does it all for the Cyclones, averaging 16.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.7 steals per game. He has had two triple-doubles this season, and Iowa State typically wins in blowout fashion if he puts up a double-double. As long as he keeps his turnovers to a minimum, Iowa State should hold serve.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Iowa State

Kerry Miller: Iowa State

Joel Reuter: Iowa State

No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 13 Hofstra Pride

6 of 16
Ole Miss v Alabama
Alabama's Labaron Philon Jr.

Matchup: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Hofstra (Midwest Regional)

Details: Friday at 3:15 p.m. ET (truTV), Tampa

One-Sentence Synopsis: Speedy Claxton will try to coach Hofstra to an upset of one of the speediest teams in the nation.

Alabama Wins If: Shots are falling. It's the only Friday game with this blueprint for the favorite, but it's more pertinent to Alabama than to any other team in the field. The Crimson Tide average 35.3 three-point attempts per game, 2.2 more than the next-closest team in the country. And though they expect to be without Aden Holloway, that won't change the game plan. In fact, Alabama attempted a season-high 57 (!!!) three-pointers in a game against UTSA in which Holloway didn't play.

Hofstra Wins If: It slows down the Tide. Alabama plays at a breakneck pace, averaging 74.6 possessions per SEC game. But Hofstra has played in 17 consecutive games with 70 possessions or fewer, so something's got to give. Keeping the Crimson Tide from getting into its usual offensive rhythm is crucial for the Pride. So is getting a big game from Cruz Davis, who has scored at least 30 on five occasions.

Star to Watch: Labaron Philon Jr. runs this Alabama offense every bit as well as Mark Sears did over the previous three years. The sophomore averages 21.7 points and 4.7 assists per game, even going for a combined 49 points in the two slower-paced games against Tennessee.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Alabama

Kerry Miller: Alabama

Joel Reuter: Hofstra

No. 8 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 9 Utah State Aggies

7 of 16
Villanova v Georgetown
Villanova's Duke Brennan

Matchup: No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Utah State (West Regional)

Details: Friday at 4:10 p.m. ET (TNT), San Diego

One-Sentence Synopsis: Two teams who have combined for one top 40 win all season square off for the right to face Arizona on Sunday.

Villanova Wins If: Utah State performs in the tournament like it usually does. Save for a first-round win over No. 9 seed TCU two years ago, the Aggies haven't won a game in their last 11 trips to the dance. With the exception of San Diego State crashing the Final Four in 2023, that's pretty much business as usual among Mountain West teams over the past two decades. And this was a weaker MWC than usual, with USU yet to face anyone better than VCU.

Utah State Wins If: It plays like the top 50 team that it is. Why top 50, you ask? Well, Villanova went 1-6 this season against KenPom top 50 opponents, that lone win coming in overtime against Wisconsin back in December—when the Badgers were not nearly the force that they have since become. The Wildcats weren't laughably outclassed in (most) of those games, but they haven't shown the ability to beat good teams. (And they are adjusting to life without a key starter in Matt Hodge.)

Star to Watch: Usually with Villanova, it's the three-point savants who shine the brightest. But it's Duke Brennan at 12.4 points, 10.3 rebounds and 0.0 three-point attempts per game who plays the biggest part. The Wildcats have won 16 of the 19 games in which he grabbed at least 10 boards, with one of those losses coming in overtime at Connecticut.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Villanova

Kerry Miller: Utah State

Joel Reuter: Utah State

No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 11 Miami (OH) RedHawks

8 of 16
Tennessee v Mississippi State
Tennessee's Nate Ament

Matchup: No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Miami (OH) (Midwest Regional)

Details: Friday at 4:25 p.m. ET (TBS), Philadelphia

One-Sentence Synopsis: No good teams would Volunteer to face Miami (OH), but the RedHawks are already a big Cinderella story.

Tennessee Wins If: It does something with what should be a copious supply of offensive rebounds. The Volunteers are No. 1 in the nation in this department, and let's just say Miami (OH) hasn't dealt with many Jaylen Carey and Felix Okpara types thus far this season. But offensive rebounds are only worth a darn if you eventually convert them into points, and Tennessee doesn't shoot particularly well as a whole. In fact, they are 5-6 when grabbing at least 17 offensive rebounds, barely averaging 70 points in those Ls. Got to get second-chance points.

Miami (OH) Wins If: It continues to rain threes. The RedHawks averaged 10.4 made threes at a nearly 40 percent clip during the regular season and proceeded to light up SMU for 16 triples on Wednesday night in Dayton. But SMU's perimeter defense (especially sans BJ Edwards) isn't any better than what Miami faced in the MAC this season. This game against Tennessee is the real test. And with all due respect to Rocky Top, it'd be fun if the RedHawks pass it.

Star to Watch: Ja'Kobi Gillespie has been Tennessee's rock at point guard, but Nate Ament is the uber-talented freshman who gives the Volunteers a higher ceiling when he's in the zone. He missed a pair of games late in the regular season with a lower leg injury, but he went for 39 points, 19 rebounds, six assists, three blocks and three steals in Tennessee's two SEC tournament games. So, you know, he's looking alright.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Tennessee

Kerry Miller: Tennessee

Joel Reuter: Tennessee

No. 8 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes

9 of 16
Maryland v Iowa
Iowa's Bennett Stirtz

Matchup: No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa (South Regional)

Details: Friday at 6:50 p.m. ET (TNT), Tampa

One-Sentence Synopsis: While some matchups promise to be track meets, this one might be a race to 55 points between two of the four slowest-paced teams in the field.

Clemson Wins If: It protects the rim. This quest became much more difficult when primary big man Carter Welling went down with a torn ACL in the ACC tournament, but the Tigers were able to tread water without him, not getting destroyed in the paint against either North Carolina or Duke. However, both of those teams were also missing one of their primary big men, so this will be the real test, against an Iowa team that ranks top 20 in the nation in two-point percentage.

Iowa Wins If: It generates turnovers. To be clear, "turnovers" and "fast break situations" aren't synonymous here. Slow and steady wins the race for the Hawkeyes. But when they force 10 or fewer turnovers, they are just 3-6 this season, compared to 18-6 when they eclipse that mark. However, Clemson only averages 9.4 giveaways per game.

Star to Watch: This is the lone spot in which we are highlighting a star from the lower-seeded team. That's because while Clemson is a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" type of team, Iowa is pretty much "Bennett Stirtz or Bust." He plays nearly every minute of every game, entering the tournament with 316 more points and 72 more assists than his closest teammate. That said, he went for 32 and six with no turnovers in Iowa's terrible loss to Maryland, so he can't actually do it all by himself.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Iowa

Kerry Miller: Iowa

Joel Reuter: Iowa

No. 5 St. John's Red Storm vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa Panthers

10 of 16
Connecticut v St. John's
St. John's Zuby Ejiofor

Matchup: No. 5 St. John's vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa (East Regional)

Details: Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS), San Diego

One-Sentence Synopsis: Red Storm hoping to stave off a perfect storm from a UNI team with some Cinderella in its history.

St. John's Wins If: It imposes its will. Northern Iowa ranks 72nd on KenPom and hasn't beaten a top 100 opponent (in five tries) this season. And save for one weird collapse against Providence, St. John's is undefeated (in 24 games) against teams outside the top 40. The Red Storm should clamp down on defense and make life miserable for a Panthers team that ranks almost dead last in the nation in both free-throw rate and offensive rebounding.

Northern Iowa Wins If: The Johnnies have one of those nights from the field. UNI has a top 25 defense, and St. John's periodically can't shoot its way out of a paper bag. The 72-40 loss at UConn was the most vivid example, but the Red Storm has shot below 36 percent from the field on six occasions. By comparison the four No. 1 seeds have yet to have a single game below 37.3 percent, so this isn't just something that happens sometimes to even the best teams.

Star to Watch: Few players stuff the stat sheet quite like Johnnies big man Zuby Ejiofor, who averages 16.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.1 blocks and 1.2 steals per game. He almost leads the team in all five categories, with steals the lone exception. He had a triple-double a few weeks ago and put up a line of 18-9-7-3-2 in the Big East title game.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Northern Iowa

Kerry Miller: St. John's

Joel Reuter: St. John's

No. 7 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 10 UCF Knights

11 of 16
Purdue v UCLA
UCLA's Donovan Dent

Matchup: No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF (East Regional)

Details: Friday at 7:25 p.m. ET (TBS), Philadelphia

One-Sentence Synopsis: Health questions abound for the Bruins in advance of the first round's lone Acronym Battle.

UCLA Wins If: Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau are fully healthy. The former suffered a calf injury in the Big Ten semifinal against Purdue; the latter a knee injury the previous day against Michigan State. Mick Cronin said after the fact that they could have played and that he expects them both to play in this game. And if they're playing as well as they had been over the past month, that could be terrible news for UCF.

UCF Wins If: The defense plays much better than usual. That 66-65 overtime win over Cincinnati in the Big 12 tournament was a gigantic exception to the rule for a team that allowed at least 80 points in regulation on 15 occasions. And though UCLA generally plays at a slower tempo, it has eclipsed 80 points in four of its last eight games and is 14-1 when scoring at least 75. The Knights cannot afford to let the Bruins get into a groove.

Star to Watch: Excluding the recent game that he left with an injury in the first half, Dent has averaged 15.1 points, 9.8 assists and 1.6 turnovers per game dating back to the end of January. He narrowly missed being named a preseason first-team All-American, and he is living up to the billing after a disjointed first couple of months.

Predictions

David Kenyon: UCLA

Kerry Miller: UCLA

Joel Reuter: UCLA

No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 15 Queens Royals

12 of 16
Purdue v UCLA
Purdue's Braden Smith

Matchup: No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Queens (West Regional)

Details: Friday at 7:35 p.m. ET (truTV), St. Louis

One-Sentence Synopsis: The king of assists goes up against the Queens of Charlotte.

Purdue Wins If: Efficiency metrics play to form. Purdue ranks No. 1 in the nation in offensive efficiency. Queens ranks 322nd in defensive efficiency. And were it not for the absurdity of Fairleigh Dickinson beating Purdue 63-58 with the 359th ranked defensive efficiency three years ago, we would be fully convinced that this is destined to be a 110-65 type of bloodbath in which Braden Smith goes for 20 and 20.

Queens Wins If: Previous experience pays off. One thing that a lot of Cinderella teams have in common is a nonconference schedule in which they faced a few of the "big boys." Before becoming Dunk City, Florida Gulf Coast played three top 30 teams. 2018 UMBC challenged itself with a couple of top 40 games. And this Queens team went on the road to face top 40 Arkansas, Virginia, Villanova and Auburn. Like FGCU and UMBC, they didn't actually win (or frankly put up a fight in) any of those games. But at least they have an idea of what they're up against.

Star to Watch: With one assist in this game, Braden Smith will tie Bobby Hurley for the NCAA's career record in that category. And with 117 dimes in his last 12 games, you have to like his chances of getting there. The question, though, is will it become a distraction? Can't imagine they'll stop the game when he breaks the record, as we're already talking about the latest tip-off of the third window, but maybe it throws Purdue off a bit, anyway.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Purdue

Kerry Miller: Queens

Joel Reuter: Purdue

No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 16 Prairie View A&M Panthers

13 of 16
Vanderbilt v Florida
Florida's Thomas Haugh

Matchup: No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Prairie View A&M (South Regional)

Details: Friday at 9:25 p.m. ET (TNT), Tampa

One-Sentence Synopsis: Reigning national champions take on a team that was 9-16 overall barely a month ago.

Florida Wins If: Rebounding rates do their thing. The Gators lead the nation in rebounding margin at +14.5 per game. Prairie View ranks 324th at nearly minus-4 on average. It could end up being something like 54-21 in this department in a blowout win for Florida.

Prairie View A&M Wins If: The recently Scrooge-like defense can shut down real competition. PVA&M faced five KenPom top 100 foes in nonconference play, allowing 101.0 points per game. Over the past seven contests, though? 58.4 points allowed per game, including 12 steals and nine blocks in that First Four win over Lehigh. If the Panthers can somehow do that to the Gators, we'll have a ball game.

Star to Watch: For leading the Gators in scoring, Thomas Haugh was named a third-team All-American by the Associated Press. And if they're going to make a serious run at repeating as champs, he's likely going to be the biggest piece of that puzzle. That said, Haugh averaged 8.3 points in the three games Florida has played against teams who rank in the bottom 100 on KenPom, so he might be conserving his energy in this one.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Florida

Kerry Miller: Florida

Joel Reuter: Florida

No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist Lancers

14 of 16
COLLEGE BASKETBALL: MAR 3 Kansas at Arizona State
Kansas' Darryn Peterson

Matchup: No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist (East Regional)

Details: Friday at 9:45 p.m. ET (CBS), San Diego

One-Sentence Synopsis: The nation's fifth-leading scorer goes up against Darryn Peterson.

Kansas Wins If: It keeps Dominique Daniels Jr. reasonably under wraps. He averages 23.2 points per game. He went for 41 against Utah Tech in the WAC semifinal and scored 47 in a win over Utah Valley in late January. And, well, it might take 50 from him for Cal Baptist to upset Kansas, so keeping him at or below his season average would be big.

Cal Baptist Wins If: "Bad Kansas" shows up. The Jayhawks have become the most Jekyll and Hyde team in the country, losing five of their last nine games and averaging 58.4 points in those losses. Now, Cal Baptist is no Arizona, Houston or Iowa State, but it does have a respectable defense. And if Kansas' offense no-shows, CBU could join Bucknell and Bradley in dubious Jayhawk history.

Star to Watch: After three months of limited availability (and the crackpot theories that came with it), Darryn Peterson has played at least 28 minutes in seven consecutive games. As noted above, his more consistent presence in the lineup hasn't exactly bolstered Kansas' offense. But it's not too late for things to suddenly click for this team.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Kansas

Kerry Miller: Kansas

Joel Reuter: Kansas

No. 2 Connecticut Huskies vs. No. 15 Furman Paladins

15 of 16
Connecticut v Marquette
Connecticut's Alex Karaban

Matchup: No. 2 Connecticut vs. No. 15 Furman (East Regional)

Details: Friday at 10 p.m. ET (TBS), Philadelphia

One-Sentence Synopsis: In the past 45 years, Furman has played in one NCAA tournament while UConn has won six of them.

Connecticut Wins If: It limits the turnovers. This shouldn't be a problem in this one, as Furman has a year-to-date turnover margin of negative-78. But in losing four of its last 11 games, UConn has struggled with giveaways, culminating in 17 of them in the blowout loss in the Big East championship game. If the Huskies are super sloppy, though, the Paladins will take it.

Furman Wins If: Alex Wilkins takes over. An under-the-national-radar freshman who averaged 17.7 points and 4.7 assists per game, Wilkins went for 34 points in Furman's SoCon tournament victory over UNC Greensboro. He's also the key to the Paladins winning the turnover battle, as he coughs the ball up nearly four times per game. If he plays a clean, impactful game, though, that could be a precursor to madness.

Star to Watch: Alex Karaban has never been a massive source of individual statistics, but few four-year players have stacked up more career wins in the history of this sport. On a team in which all five starters average between 10.9 and 13.7 points per game, he could be the main guy in any given game.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Connecticut

Kerry Miller: Connecticut

Joel Reuter: Connecticut

No. 7 Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. No. 10 Missouri Tigers

16 of 16
COLLEGE BASKETBALL: JAN 17 Miami at Clemson
Miami (FL)'s Malik Reneau

Matchup: No. 7 Miami (FL) vs. No. 10 Missouri (West Regional)

Details: Friday at 10:10 p.m. ET (truTV), St. Louis

One-Sentence Synopsis: If you've somehow survived the first 31 games with a perfect bracket intact, best of luck with this coin flip in your quest for glory.

Miami (FL) Wins If: It dominates the glass. While Missouri is a solid rebounding team, Miami has been outstanding, ranking top 25 in the nation on both ends of the floor. Ernest Udeh Jr. usually doesn't do much scoring, but he leads the way in this department, averaging 13.4 rebounds per 40 minutes. He went for 15 and 10 in the Hurricanes' big win over North Carolina.

Missouri Wins If: It holds Miami below 74 points. That's the magic threshold in this one. The Hurricanes are 24-3 when reaching that mark, but 1-5 when falling short of it. Meanwhile, Missouri is 12-0 when allowing 73 points or fewer. And it'll probably boil down to whether a Miami offense that only averages 6.6 made three-pointers per game sufficiently takes advantage a Tigers team that ranks among the worst at perimeter defense.

Star to Watch: Outside of maybe Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg and Iowa's Bennett Stirtz, Miami's Malik Reneau may have been the most impactful transfer in the nation. He has averaged 26.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per 40 minutes played, and he was huge in each of the Hurricanes four best wins.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Miami

Kerry Miller: Missouri

Joel Reuter: Missouri

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