Best Upset Picks for Every Region in the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket

Winning the national championship is always the goal in the NCAA tournament, but an incredible first-round upset can become even more iconic.

You likely remember, for example, when 16th-seeded UMBC upset Virginia during the first round of March Madness in 2018. But could you also recall that Villanova ended up cutting down the nets?

Shocking results are the stuff of legends.

We are not-so-quietly hoping for a resurgence of upsets after a quiet 2025 tourney. Only a handful of double-digit seeds won an opening-round matchup, and just Arkansas—an SEC team—reached the Sweet 16 last season.

The choices are entirely subjective. All double-digit seeds are considered, with an emphasis on mid- and low-major programs.

East Region

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Trey Campbell

First-Round Upset: No. 14 North Dakota State over No. 3 Michigan State

Michigan State had an elite defense for about 80 percent of the year. After a bit of a shaky February, though, the Spartans blew up down the stretch. Rutgers, Michigan, and UCLA all scored at least 87 points against MSU in the last two weeks. North Dakota State is 38th nationally in three-point percentage and boasts five efficient shooters on the perimeter. The trend is concerning for MSU.

Surprise Sweet 16 Team: No. 12 Northern Iowa Panthers

Northern Iowa brings the ever-frustrating profile of a snail-slow tempo and stellar three-point defense. Opponents have converted just 28.5 percent from distance, the third-worst mark in the country. Fourth-seeded Kansas and No. 5 St. John's don't exactly have a stable of perimeter options, so UNI could create low-scoring rock fights in the first and second rounds. Advantage, underdog.

South Region

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Larry Johnson

First-Round Upset: No. 13 Troy over No. 4 Nebraska

Probably one of the more popular upsets you'll see, Troy is back in the Big Dance. Last year, the Trojans stuck with Kentucky into the second half of their matchup. Nebraska, which will likely face a similar challenge, hasn't inspired much confidence after a 20-0 start. Since then, the Huskers are 6-6 with a single win over a tourney team. Nebraska's reeling offense is a serious reason for concern.

Surprise Sweet 16 Team: No. 12 McNeese Cowboys

Vanderbilt does a great job protecting the ball, owning a top-15 turnover rate in the country. But under the bright lights, a havoc-inducing McNeese defense—the nation's leader in steal percentage—could flip the script. Throw in a possible Troy upset, and McNeese's path to a first-ever Sweet 16 trip is intriguing.

Midwest Region

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Christian Hammond

First-Round Upset: No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech

On paper, Akron fits a classic mold. It's a senior-heavy roster with strong three-point shooting, multiple facilitators, and a defense that generates steals. Texas Tech, meanwhile, is without star forward JT Toppin (knee) and hopes Christian Anderson (groin) avoided a lingering injury after leaving its recent Big 12 tournament loss.

Surprise Sweet 16 Team: No. 10 Santa Clara Broncos

The last time Santa Clara played in the NCAA tournament, a guy named Steve Nash led the program. Nobody on the Broncos is a passer like him, of course, but five players dish multiple assists per game. That unselfishness could propel Santa Clara past Kentucky and Iowa State and into a first modern-era Sweet 16 trip.

West Region

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Mark Mitchell

First-Round Upset: No. 12 High Point over No. 5 Wisconsin

For the second straight year, the Big South champions are a compelling first-round team. They showcase plenty of perimeter options in a high-tempo attack and rank second nationally in steal percentage on defense. Wisconsin is built to score with anyone and rarely commits turnovers, but eight of the Badgers' 10 losses coincided with games of 10-plus giveaways. High Point's blueprint is clear.

Surprise Sweet 16 Team: No. 10 Missouri Tigers

Ah, yes, the annual tradition is back. Do you trust Purdue? Sure, the Boilermakers just won a Big Ten tournament title. The last time it happened, Purdue fell to 16th-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson. The beneficiary could be Missouri, a well-tested SEC program with victories over Florida, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee. Mizzou is only a slight underdog against No. 7 Miami in the first round, too.