Joe Lunardi Predicts March Madness Final After Bracket Reveal on Selection Sunday 2026

Joe Lunardi's picks are in.

The ESPN bracketologist believes Duke, Florida, Arizona and Iowa State will reach the Final Four during this year's NCAA men's tournament, going mostly chalk (9:37 mark).

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He revealed his full bracket on Monday, picking Arizona to beat Duke in the championship game.

Under his bracket, the only No. 1 seed that wouldn't advance to the Final Four (or the Elite 8, for that matter) is Michigan.

None of these predictions should come as a major surprise.

On paper (and on the court thus far), Duke—when healthy—is the best and most talented team in the country. The Blue Devils rank second in defensive efficiency and fourth in offensive efficiency. They are led by Naismith College Player of the Year candidate Cam Boozer, a projected top-three pick in June's NBA draft. The Blue Devils have wins over Kansas, Florida, Michigan, Arkansas, Michigan State, Louisville (twice), North Carolina, Clemson (twice) and Virginia, among others.

They are the top overall seed for a reason, though other contenders loom.

Florida surged after a modest 14-6 start, winning 12 games in a row before a surprising upset loss against Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament. The Gators rank sixth in defensive efficiency and ninth in offensive efficiency. Florida struggled against elite competition to start the year, losing to Arizona, Duke and UConn, but was a buzzsaw in SEC play. The defending champs aren't to be taken lightly.

Arizona was fantastic to start the season, opening with 23 straight wins before Kansas and Texas Tech handed them back-to-back losses (by a combined seven points) in mid-February. The Wildcats haven't lost since, ranking third in defensive efficiency and fifth in offensive efficiency. Perhaps most impressively, they went 4-0 against Houston and Iowa State and added non-conference wins over Florida, UCLA, UConn and Alabama.

Speaking of Iowa State, the Cyclones started the season 16-0 before the gauntlet of the Big 12 truly kicked in. While Iowa State is just 11-7 since their hot start, six of those losses came against teams in the NCAA tournament. The Cyclones rank fourth in defensive efficiency and 21st in offensive efficiency and have a far easier path to the Final Four than the other 2-seeds.