March Madness 2026 Odds for First Four, 1st Round of NCAA Men's Tournament Bracket
The First Four of the 2026 NCAA men's basketball tournament is headlined by one of the best teams in the country by record.
The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks, who went 31-1, were bracketed into the First Four, where they will play the SMU Mustangs out of the ACC.
Travis Steele's team was one of the last at-large squads into the field of 68, and it will be a significant underdog against its power-conference opponent.
The Miami (Ohio)-SMU game has the largest spread among the four First Four games in Dayton. All of the other three First Four matchups opened with spreads of two points or less.
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First Four Odds
1 of 5
Tuesday, March 17
No. 16 UMBC (-1.5) vs. No. 16 Howard (6:30 p.m. ET)
No. 11 NC State (-1.5) vs. No. 11 Texas (9 p.m. ET)
Wednesday, March 18
No. 16 Prairie View vs. No. 16 Lehigh (-1.5) (6:30 p.m. ET)
No. 11 Miami (Ohio) vs. No. 11 SMU (-7.5) (9 p.m. ET)
The odds against Miami (Ohio) seem striking if you base the matchup off record alone, but the RedHawks are 51 spots behind SMU on KenPom.
The RedHawks did not play the best nonconference schedule and the MAC is typically not one of the higher-rated mid-major leagues. Those were two of the reasons why Miami was one of the last at-large teams into the field.
Miami was a much better team against the spread than SMU this season, though. Miami was 19-10-1 ATS, while SMU was 14-18-1. SMU comes into Dayton with a 1-4 record in its last five games.
Howard, who plays on Tuesday in Dayton, has the nation's best record against the spread at 20-8. Prairie View, who plays Lehigh on Wednesday, is 21-9 ATS.
East Region Odds
2 of 5
No. 1 Duke (-27.5) vs. No. 16 Siena
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5) vs. No. 9 TCU
No. 5 St. John's (-9.5) vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa
No. 4 Kansas (-13.5) vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist
No. 6 Louisville (-7.5) vs. No. 11 South Florida
No. 3 Michigan State (-16.5) vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 7 UCLA (-6.5) vs. No. 10 UCF
No. 2 UConn (-18.5) vs. No. 15 Furman
All of the top four seeds in the East region are double-digit favorites on the point spread in the first round.
Darryn Peterson and Kansas are only a 13.5-point favorite against Cal Baptist, who is playing in its first NCAA tournament game. The gap in talent might push the final margin of victory into the 20s in favor of the Jayhawks.
St. John's faces a fascinating No. 5-versus-No. 12 matchup against Northern Iowa, who boasts the top scoring defense in the country.
Northern Iowa won the Missouri Valley tournament as a No. 6 seed and will be one of the top upset picks in bracket pools.
South Region Odds
3 of 5
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Lehigh/Prairie View
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa (-1.5)
No. 5 Vanderbilt (-10.5) vs. No. 12 McNeese
No. 4 Nebraska (-13.5) vs. No. 13 Troy
No. 6 North Carolina (-2.5) vs. No. 11 VCU
No. 3 Illinois (-21.5) vs. No. 14 Penn
No. 7 Saint Mary's (-2.5) vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
No. 2 Houston (-21.5) vs. No. 15 Idaho
North Carolina, who could have been a top-four seed with Caleb Wilson in the lineup, is only a 2.5-point favorite against Atlantic 10 tournament champion VCU.
UNC went 4-2 in its final six games, so it is capable of winning without its star freshman, but it will be viewed as a vulnerable team against one of the better mid-major teams in the bracket.
Nebraska will go after its first NCAA tournament win in program history against Troy from the Sun Belt. The Cornhuskers are one of the better scoring teams in the country. That should help ease some of the pressure put on its shoulders.
Iowa is a slight favorite in the No. 8-versus-No. 9 matchup in the South region despite posting a 3-7 record in its last 10 games. Clemson beat North Carolina and Louisville in the last few weeks and could be one of the top spread underdogs to trust in the opening round.
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West Region Odds
4 of 5
No. 1 Arizona (-29.5) vs. No. 16 LIU
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Utah State (-2.5)
No. 5 Wisconsin (-11.5) vs. No. 12 High Point
No. 4 Arkansas (-15.5) vs. No. 13 Hawai'i
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 NC State/Texas
No. 3 Gonzaga (-19.5) vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State
No. 7 Miami (FL) (-2.5) vs. No. 10 Missouri
No. 2 Purdue (-22.5) vs. No. 15 Queens
The West region first-round games have some massive spreads attached to them.
Arizona and Purdue are expected to win big as the top two seeds, while Gonzaga is a hefty favorite against Kennesaw State as the No. 3 seed.
Even the Nos. 4 and 5 seeds, Arkansas and Wisconsin, are double-digit favorites on the spread.
All of the top five seeds are capable of winning big, especially if their star players go off, including Arkansas' Darius Acuff.
The Miami-Missouri matchup will probably be the best of the West first-round games. The Hurricanes and Tigers both rank inside the top 35 in two-point offense on KenPom.
Midwest Regional
5 of 5
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Howard/UMBC
No. 8 Georgia (-2.5) vs. No. 9 Saint Louis
No. 5 Texas Tech (-8.5) vs. No. 12 Akron
No. 4 Alabama (-12.5) vs. No. 13 Hofstra
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)/SMU
No. 3 Virginia (-17.5) vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 7 Kentucky (-2.5) vs. No. 10 Santa Clara
No. 2 Iowa State (-23.5) vs. No. 15 Tennessee State
The Midwest region has some potentially vulnerable high seeds.
Texas Tech enters the Big Dance on a three-game losing streak. The Red Raiders, who lost star J.T. Toppin to a season-ending injury, could struggle with the scoring pace of Akron.
Alabama comes into the NCAA tournament off a surprising loss to SEC No. 15 seed Ole Miss in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament.
The Crimson Tide are one of the higher-variance teams in the country because of how many three-point shots they attempt. Hofstra is outclassed in terms of talent in the matchup, but if it can defend the three-point line well, it might have a shot of at least covering versus Alabama.
Kentucky could be in trouble against Santa Clara from the West Coast Conference. Santa Clara won 26 games this season and ranks in the top 40 in two-point offense.
The Georgia-Saint Louis contest has the potential to have the most points of any first-round game. They rank 16th and 21st in adjusted tempo on KenPom.
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