March Madness 2026 Predictions for Favorites, Sleepers and Men's Bracket Bubble Teams

The 2026 NCAA men's basketball tournament bracket will be in our hands on Sunday night.

The four No. 1 seeds are known at this point, and it would not be a surprise to see one of Duke, Arizona, Michigan or Florida win the whole thing.

However, this is March and you can never count out a sleeper team from making a title run as well.

One thing you can probably rule out, though, is a deep run from a double-digit seed.

The NCAA tournament bubble is as weak as its ever been and the last few teams into the field might not last long in the Big Dance.

Favorites

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Duke

Duke enters Selection Sunday as the betting favorite to cut down the nets in Indianapolis.

The ACC regular-season and tournament champion has arguably the best player in the country in Cameron Boozer as well as a well-rounded roster that's succeeded against almost every challenge posed to it.

Duke owns wins over two of the other three projected No. 1 seeds, Florida and Michigan, and its only two losses came by a total of four points.

The Blue Devils do have injury issues to worry about with Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba, but that didn't affect them in Charlotte, as they won three games to capture the ACC tournament.

Michigan

Michigan can make a late push to be the No. 1 overall seed on Sunday in the Big Ten tournament title game.

The Wolverines will probably be the No. 2 overall seed, at worst, in the bracket reveal.

They have a tremendous balance on both sides of the ball, led by Yaxel Lendeborg.

Michigan's only loss in the last two months came against Duke, so it's easy to believe that the Wolverines will be right there with the Blue Devils over the next few weeks.

There's a chance that, if both the Blue Devils and Wolverines play to their strengths, they could play each other for the national title in Indianapolis.

Sleepers

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Virginia

Virginia is 13-2 since January 27.

Both of the defeats during that stretch occurred against Duke, once at Cameron Indoor Stadium and once at the ACC tournament.

The Cavaliers are one of the best teams on the defensive interior. They had 12 blocks in the ACC tournament final loss to Duke on Saturday.

UVA has a group of strong guards and an impressive top scorer in Thijs De Ridder to go along with the impressive defense.

Virginia won't get much buzz coming out of the ACC because Duke exists, but it has the look of a team that could cruise into the second weekend of the NCAA tournament.

Gonzaga

This isn't the best Gonzaga team in Mark Few's tenure there, but the Bulldogs are 30-3.

The Zags will be a dangerous No. 3 or No. 4 seed with potential to pull off an upset in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight.

Gonzaga ranks in the top 50 in most defensive metrics on KenPom and it has some notable wins over UCLA, Alabama and Kentucky.

The 40-point loss to Michigan on November 26 sticks out as a reason not to trust Gonzaga, but that might be viewed more as a one-off result than an indicator of success or failure in March.

Bubble Teams

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Texas

Texas is the "Second Team Out" in the latest bracket projection from Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Longhorns as his "Last Team In".

The Longhorns didn't help themselves this week, as they fell to No. 15 seed Ole Miss in the SEC tournament. They lost five of their final six games and they suffered defeats to fellow bubble teams Auburn and Oklahoma.

If Texas gets into the Big Dance, it'll likely be headed to Dayton for the First Four.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma is the "First Team Out" in the eyes of both Miller and Lunardi.

Porter Moser's team won six in a row before it was eliminated in the SEC tournament quarterfinals by Arkansas.

The Sooners went 8-3 in their final 11 games, but before that, they started 1-9 in SEC play.

It's an ugly resume, but Oklahoma can at least argue that its played better basketball of late in comparison to Texas.

Auburn

Auburn is Miller's "Last Team In" in the field of 68.

The Tigers started the season 14-7 with wins over Florida, Arkansas and St. John's.

Since January 31, Auburn is 3-9 with two of its wins coming against SEC bottom feeders LSU and Mississippi State.

The case for Auburn includes its terrific set of high-profile victories, but the case against it is headlined by just how poor it played in February and March.