Winners and Losers from Early 2026 NFL Free Agency

The opening week of NFL free agency is almost always one of the wildest multi-day stretches on the annual sports calendar, and this year's run didn't disappoint. 

Of course, it'll take time to truly identify the winners and losers from the last four days, but that won't stop us from making some educated guesses based on what went down during the legal tampering period and the first 36-ish hours of the new league year. 

Here are four of each.

All salary-related information courtesy of Spotrac

Winners: Quarterbacks seeking career resets 

AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell

Tua Tagovailoa

What Happened: Tua Tagovailoa was released by Miami and signed with the Falcons. Kyler Murray was released by Arizona and joined Minnesota. Geno Smith was traded from the Raiders to the Jets. Malik Willis signed with the Dolphins as a free agent. 

Why They're Winning: Tagovailoa is making huge money from his former team to restart things with a strong offensive line and one of the best running backs in the game. Murray can now make the most of a link-up with Justin Jefferson in Minnesota. Smith will have far more support across the board in New York. Willis finally gets his chance as "the guy" after backup runs in Tennessee and Green Bay. 

Predictions: Tua takes the Falcons to the playoffs. Murray beats out J.J. McCarthy and has some success in Minnesota. Smith goes one-and-done as a quasi-starter with Gang Green. Willis struggles with limited support in Miami. 

Loser: Brock Purdy

AP Photo/Stephen Brashear

Brock Purdy

What Happened: Purdy's 49ers signed veteran wide receiver Mike Evans, lost Kendrick Bourne, gave up on Brandon Aiyuk, neglected to invest significantly in a problematic offensive line, and kept QB2 Mac Jones on the roster. 

Why He's Losing: The much cheaper Jones was often just as effective as Purdy in his stead in 2025, and he'll almost certainly continue to apply pressure in 2026. Purdy's line looks weak at guard, and 37-year-old left tackle Trent Williams could fall off a cliff any time now. But rather than invest in improvements or reinforcements in those spots, the front office overpaid for a post-prime Evans. 

Prediction: The highly-paid former seventh-round pick again has trouble delivering as a consistent franchise quarterback in 2026, paving the way for a legitimate quarterback controversy in San Francisco. 

Winner: Fernando Mendoza

AP Photo/Julio Cortez

Fernando Mendoza

What Happened: The Raiders—who are widely expected to use the No. 1 overall pick on Mendoza—traded away their 2025 starter, Geno Smith, added a Pro Bowl center, and invested heavily in the defense. A trade that would have sent star edge defender Maxx Crosby to the Ravens was nixed by Baltimore. 

Why He's Winning: If indeed he becomes a Raider next month, Mendoza now has a clearer path to the starting gig, as well as more support on both sides of the ball than Smith did in 2025. And there's no doubt that for the time being, the team is better with Crosby than without him.

Prediction: Buoyed by the addition of Tyler Linderbaum as well as considerable talent at left tackle (Kolton Miller), tight end (Brock Bowers), and running back (Ashton Jeanty), Mendoza runs away with Offensive Rookie of the Year in Las Vegas.

Loser: Maxx Crosby 

AP Photo/Maria Lysaker

Maxx Crosby

What Happened: As noted, a trade that would have sent Crosby to the Ravens in exchange for 2026 and 2027 first-round picks was called off by Baltimore. 

Why He's Losing: This was Crosby's shot at joining a team in win-now mode in what appears to be the final chapter or two of his prime. The Raiders have some strong pieces and have bolstered the defense in support of Crosby, but they're not a realistic Super Bowl contender in 2026. Crosby, who turns 29 this summer, is entering his eighth year. He's been a part of just one winning season in his career, and that is unlikely to change in 2026. Making matters worse, there may now be questions about his long-term health following a failed physical with Baltimore. 

Prediction: The Ravens get back to the playoffs and rejoin the Super Bowl conversation with Trey Hendrickson while Crosby wastes another year of his prime with the rebuilding Raiders before begging for a trade at the deadline or in 2027. 

Winner: Current and future free-agent interior offensive linemen

AP Photo/Terrance Williams

Tyler Linderbaum

What Happened: Linderbaum signed a three-year, $81 million deal with the Raiders, while fellow centers Tyler Biadasz and Elgton Jenkins both landed contracts with AAVs of $10 million or more. And six guards signed deals at or above that mark, led by Zion Johnson at $16.5 million per year.

Why They're Winning: Linderbaum reset the center market with an AAV that is 50 percent higher than former leader Creed Humphrey ($18 million), while the $10-million-per-year guard club saw its membership rise by 30 percent. Teams are really starting to value interior offensive linemen more heavily. 

Prediction: Quenton Nelson will break the $30-million-per-year threshold next offseason, and Steve Avila could join him. 

Loser: Tennessee Titans 

AP Photo/George Walker IV

Robert Saleh

What Happened: The cap-rich Titans handed out five contracts worth more than a combined $80 million a year to the soon-to-be 30-year-old John Franklin-Myers, the limited-by-size Wan'Dale Robinson, the inconsistent Alontae Taylor, the non-playmaking Cor'Dale Flott, and the unspectacular Daniel Bellinger. 

Why They're Losing: The adjectives used to describe the five players above sort of establish the point. The Titans went quantity over quality, focusing heavily on former Giants and Jets due to obvious connections to new head coach Robert Saleh and incoming offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. It's misguided and shortsighted, especially considering Franklin-Myers' age and the state of the rebuilding franchise. 

Prediction: Cam Ward continues to struggle in his second season, and we all point the finger at the Titans for not doing enough with their oodles of salary-cap space to help him in 2026. 

Winner: Daniel Jones

AP Photo/John Raoux, File

Daniel Jones

What Happened: Despite tearing his Achilles in December, Jones parlayed the transition tag into a fresh two-year, $88 million contract with the Colts. He becomes the 17th-highest-paid player in the NFL.

Why They're Winning: Jones was solid before suffering that injury last season, but he turns 29 this spring and has an 86.6 career passer rating. The 28-year-old quarterback has thrown just 89 touchdown passes in 83 career games and the Giants/Colts have gone 32-49-1 in his 82 career starts. The G-Men handed him $108 million, and if he plays out this contract, he'll have made more than $210 million in nine NFL campaigns. Pretty wild for a guy who could still fully become a bust. 

Prediction: Jones becomes this generation's Kirk Cousins, exploiting the system as a talented but not special quarterback by landing several big-money deals. 

Loser: Seattle Seahawks

AP Photo/Colin E Braley

Kenneth Walker III

What Happened: Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III signed with the Chiefs, while key defenders Boye Mafe, Coby Bryant, and Riq Woolen all jumped ship in free agency. 

Why They're Losing: They did re-sign Rashid Shaheed, but four of the team's top five in-house free agents escaped. The price tags were inflated following that Super Bowl campaign, which led to them being picked apart during what was a brutal week. It's a reminder of why only one Super Bowl champion has repeated in the last 20 years. 

Prediction: With those departures and a target on their back in a very difficult division, Seattle fails to win a playoff game in 2026.