Post-2026 NHL Trade Deadline Playoff Predictions and Bracket
Now that the 2025-26 NHL Trade Deadline is complete, and now that we know what all 32 rosters are going to look like for the stretch run of the regular season and playoffs, it is time to take an updated look at the NHL's playoff races and make some predictions.
Realistically speaking, the Eastern Conference playoff race is down to the Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Islanders, Boston Bruins, and Columbus Blue Jackets competing for three playoff spots (the second-and third playoff spots in the Metropolitan Division and the second wild-card spot), while the Tampa Bay Lightning are trying to hold off the Buffalo Sabres for the top spot in the Atlantic Division.
In the Western Conference, things are way more chaotic, given the gap between the top three teams (the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, and Minnesota Wild) and everybody else. All three playoff spots in the Pacific Division are realistically up for grabs, as is the second-wild-card spot.
So, let's try to predict what the playoff matchups might look like as the season sits today.
Keep in mind, these projected matchups are predictions of what we think might happen and how the playoff picture might shape up. It is not a look at the current playoff matchups based on the standings as of Monday.
Atlantic Division: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. (WC1) Detroit Red Wings
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Tampa Bay Lightning (Atlantic Division 1 seed)
It is not really a surprise that the Lightning are in a fight for the top spot in the Atlantic Division going into the middle of March. They probably just anticipated that fight would be with the Toronto Maple Leafs or the Florida Panthers, not the Buffalo Sabres. You probably expected that as well. But here we are.
Even though the Sabres have won two straight head-to-head games over the Lightning in recent weeks to take sole possession of first-place in the division, there is still a lot to like about the Lightning's chances here.
The two teams still play one more time.
The Lightning still have two very important games in hand.
And, for as exciting as the Sabres are, the Lightning still have the higher-end talent at the top of the lineup and the better goalie.
That can all add up in their favor. And by the end of the regular season, I still think it will.
Detroit Red Wings (Wild Card 1)
The Red Wings have to avoid another March meltdown, but general manager Steve Yzerman did give them some help at the trade deadline with the additions of David Perron and Justin Faulk. They are not major needle-movers in reshaping the Eastern Conference, but they are solid depth moves for a team that desperately needed help at both forward and defense.
Detroit's top four or five core players have all been mostly outstanding this season, and they are the biggest reason they are in a position to end their nine-year playoff drought. But there was a big drop-off on the roster once you got beyond them.
Perron and Faulk will help.
There also has to be a bit of a psychological boost to the locker room to actually add players at the deadline after selling in recent years. It might be a little closer than they hoped for a few weeks ago, but they should still be in a good position to get a playoff spot. Their reward will likely be a best-of-seven series against Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel and Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Atlantic Division: Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens
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Buffalo Sabres (Atlantic Division 2)
The Sabres have been an absolute wagon since the start of December, going on a 29-8-2 run since then. No team in the NHL has been better over that stretch, and it has put them right in the thick of the race for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. At this point that race is basically just them and Tampa Bay.
The Sabres have really helped their chances to get that top spot with two regulation wins over the Lightning in recent weeks, but as noted above, the Lightning still have some things going for them.
But whether they get the No. 1 seed in the division or the No. 2 spot, there probably are not many Sabres fans who are going to care either way.
The bottom line is that after 14 years on the outside of the playoffs, the Sabres are back.
They are not only good but also wildly entertaining and exciting. Just the way a good Buffalo Sabres team should be.
Montreal Canadiens (Atlantic 3)
The Canadiens decided to stand pat at the NHL Trade Deadline, and we will see if they come to regret that decision, especially as it relates to their goaltending situation, which remains a significant concern.
But this is still an outstanding young team with a great young core that is really starting to come together. Juraj Slafkovsky has been a major breakthrough this season, already setting career highs in goals and points despite still having 20 games left in the regular season. He may not be a superstar-level player along the lines of Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid as far as No. 1 overall picks go, but he is going to have one heck of a career in Montreal.
The Canadiens look like they are solidly in a playoff spot; the question is whether they get a top-three seed in the Atlantic division or a wild-card. My guess is they hang on to the top-three seed.
Metropolitan Division: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Boston Bruins (WC2)
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Carolina Hurricanes (Metropolitan 1)
With an eight-point lead over every other team in the Metropolitan Division, the Carolina Hurricanes should be feeling pretty good about their chances of winning it. They are almost certain to win it. The only thing they have left to play for at this point in the season is securing the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference to get home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Hurricanes are their usual rock-solid self from top to bottom, but it was still a little surprising they did not find a way to secure a big win at the NHL Trade Deadline, given their salary cap space and draft capital to deal from. As good as they are, they could still always use a little extra goal-scoring help later in the playoffs against the best teams.
Boston Bruins (Wild Card 2)
When the Bruins are good, they look really good and are capable of winning seven or eight games in a row.
When the Bruins are bad, they look really bad and are capable of losing six or seven games in a row.
They have done this all season.
Right now, they are kind of in between the two extremes and have spent the post-Olympic break alternating wins and losses.
The one thing they have going for them: They are in a playoff spot right now with a three-point cushion over the Columbus Blue Jackets, while they have two head-to-head games against them. The outcome of those games might ultimately decide the second wild-card spot.
The Bruins won the first head-to-head meeting of the season.
In the end, points are extremely hard to make up this late in the season, and being in a playoff spot right now with anything more than a two-point cushion is significant. The fact that Columbus has gone on the run that it has and is still outside of a playoff position could be problematic for the Blue Jackets. Ultimately, this has more to do with me thinking Columbus will cool off at some point over the next month than anything else.
Metropolitan Division: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Islanders
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Pittsburgh Penguins (Metropolitan 2)
The Pittsburgh Penguins are facing a pretty daunting March schedule, but so are the teams that are chasing them. The Penguins also have a couple of Hall of Famers returning very shortly, as Sidney Crosby seems likely to return to the lineup this week, and Evgeni Malkin will be back from his suspension in three more games.
The Penguins have done enough in Crosby's absence to stay in it, going 3-2-2 in their first seven games coming out of the Olympic break and mostly playing well. It is a deep team, it is a better team than anybody could have realistically expected at the start of the season, and it probably only needs 10 wins the rest of the way to secure a spot. That is doable. Extremely doable. Especially with Crosby and Malkin back in the lineup and on the ice.
New York Islanders (Metropolitan 3)
The Islanders are right there with the Penguins in a back-and-forth race for the home-ice advantage spot in the opening round. The Penguins have a one-point lead while still having a game in hand going into the week. That is important.
Neither team looks like a Stanley Cup contender this season, but given the way things are looking right now, at least one of them is going to be in the second round. The Islanders have their share of flaws, especially offensively, but they have a potential Vezina Trophy-winning goalie in net in Ilya Sorokin and the runaway Calder Trophy favorite in defenseman Matthew Schaefer. He has been a game-changer and a franchise-changer this season.
Central Division: Colorado Avalanche vs. San Jose Sharks
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Colorado Avalanche (Central 1)
Colorado looks set in the top spot in the Central Division and almost certainly the top spot in the Western Conference overall. They already had a great 1-2 punch down the middle with Nathan MacKinnon and Brock Nelson, and then they added to it at the trade deadline by bringing back Nazem Kadri.
They may not be mathematically set in this spot, but realistically, they are. Bring on the playoffs. It is just a matter of who they play.
San Jose Sharks (Wild Card 2)
Hey, why not San Jose?
They are very much in the playoff race with Edmonton, Seattle and the Los Angeles Kings, and while they have some very real flaws and are a long way from serious Stanley Cup contention, they have one of the best young players in hockey in Macklin Celebrini. They might not have enough to finish ahead of Edmonton in the Pacific Division race, but they definitely can edge out Seattle for a wild-card spot.
Central Division: Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild
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Dallas Stars (Central 2)
This is the one playoff matchup that you can pretty much set in stone at this point. Neither Minnesota nor Dallas is likely to catch Colorado at the top. Nobody else in the Central Division is likely to catch them. The only thing to be determined is which team gets home-ice advantage.
Dallas is dealing with some big injury concerns at the moment, with Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, and Tyler Seguin sidelined, but the hope is that Rantanen and Hintz will be back before the postseason.
Even with the injury concerns, the Stars are still on an incredible run and made two solid additions at the trade deadline, acquiring forward Michael Bunting and defenseman Tyler Myers.
Minnesota Wild (Central 3)
Minnesota's trade for defenseman Quinn Hughes earlier this season was a monster move that gave the Wild a second superstar to pair up with Kirill Kaprizov. You need multiple high-level players to compete for and win a Stanley Cup, and Minnesota now has that. They have strong depth. They have outstanding goaltending.
The one thing they are lacking that could hurt them in a best-of-seven series against another contender, whether it be Dallas or Colorado, is a lack of impact players at center. Joel Eriksson Ek is a really good player, but there is a significant drop-off after him on the depth chart, and there is some question as to whether or not he can be the No. 1 center on a Stanley Cup-winning team.
Pacific Division: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Utah Mammoth
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Vegas Golden Knights (Pacific 1)
Vegas has been a little underwhelming this season (maybe even a lot underwhelming), and a lot of that is due to their goaltending issues. But there is still a ton of high-end talent on this roster that should be enough to wrestle the top spot in the division away from Anaheim. They do not need their goalies to be game-stealers. They just need them to be competent.
Surely somebody on this roster can do that.
Right?
That is not a high bar.
Utah Mammoth (Wild Card 1)
The Mammoth have really started to hit their stride since the start of January, and gave themselves some big help at the trade deadline with the addition of defenseman MacKenzie Weegar. The biggest addition, however, has been the return of a healthy Logan Cooley.
There is a lot of talent on this roster, but he is the one guy who has superstar potential and the ability to take over games. They have a six-point cushion in the playoff race entering the week, and that should be enough to secure a spot.
Pacific Division: Anaheim Ducks vs. Edmonton Oilers
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Anaheim Ducks (Pacific 2)
The addition of defenseman John Carlson is a huge addition for the Ducks, because they not only needed a big defensive upgrade, but they also needed some help on the power play. Carlson can help accomplish both. This season has been a huge step forward for the Ducks, and they look like a team whose contention window is just starting to open. They are loaded with young talent at forward, and their games are typically fun to watch. There are just some questions about their ability to slow teams down and stop them. That, ultimately, might be what drops them from the top spot in the Pacific Division down to No. 2 or 3.
Either way, they look like they are on their way to the postseason.
Edmonton Oilers (Pacific 3)
This team has so many issues.
The depth? It stinks. You do not need to look much further than their team numbers when neither Connor McDavid nor Leon Draisaitl is on the ice (outscored 38-65 with only a 47.0 percent expected goals share) to see it.
The goaltending? It is even worse than stinks. Their team-wide save percentage and the struggles of Tristan Jarry ever since he arrived in an early-season trade make that very clear.
Those two things together are enough reason to have zero faith in their ability to make another run to the Stanley Cup Final.
But they still have McDavid.
They still have Draisaitl.
Those two guys can still put the entire franchise on their backs and carry it. How far they can carry it in the playoffs remains to be seen, but they will at least carry it to the playoffs.
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