5 MLB Teams That'll Have a Worse Record in 2026
Last week on B/R, we broke down seven MLB teams that are likely to have a better record in 2026 than they did in 2025.
Of course, not everyone is going to see year-over-year improvement. For as much excitement and optimism as there is this time of year, there are inevitably going to be teams that go in the wrong direction.
So here's a look at some clubs who we think will win less games than they did in 2025, even if they may still be a good team in 2026.
St. Louis Cardinals
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The Cardinals only won 78 games a year ago, but the way that Chaim Bloom operated in his first offseason as president of baseball operations, it's pretty clear they are headed for fewer victories in 2026.
As Bloom rebuilds the organization in his image—namely, he wants to improve the farm system—he traded away Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Brendon Donovan this offseason.
Dustin May, who has never pitched more than 132.1 innings in a season, is projected to be the No. 2 starter in manager Oli Marmol's starting rotation. May—who signed a one-year, $12.5 million contract this offseason—is an interesting arm to take a risk on as a free agent. But he posted a 4.96 ERA between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox last year, and history tells us he's going to get hurt. It's one thing to take a flier on May as the No. 5 starter, but if he's pitching towards the top of your rotation, things are pretty bleak.
Again, this may all work out in the long run for the Cardinals. Bloom has done a tremendous job building pipelines of talent in prior stops leading the Tampa Bay Rays and Red Sox. 2026 looks like it could be a 90-plus loss season, though, with four other teams in the NL Central that have playoff aspirations.
Washington Nationals
2 of 5
On the surface, it would seem difficult for the Nationals to be worse than the 66-96 record they posted a year ago.
However, with context, it's probably likely.
For as bad as the Nationals were last season, MacKenzie Gore pitched to a 4.17 ERA and 3.74 FIP across 159.2 innings in 2025. New president of baseball operations Paul Taboni dealt Gore to the Texas Rangers in January. That trade may very well work out for a rebuilding Nationals team, but they won't be better off without Gore in 2026.
There continue to be some interesting pieces on this roster. Even though James Wood led baseball with 221 strikeouts last year, he homered 31 times and drove in 94 runs. CJ Abrams shows you enough every year to keep you intrigued, though his long-term defensive position may not be shortstop. Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray are two arms that have been derailed by injuries, but Washington thought could be core pieces a few seasons ago. Now that they are healthy, perhaps they can become useful rotation options.
Ultimately, though, the only notable veteran addition the Nats made this winter was signing righty Miles Mikolas. He'll eat innings, but has a 4.98 ERA over the last three seasons. If he's arguably the top starter post-Gore, it becomes pretty clear that the Nationals are headed for 100-plus losses in Blake Butera's first year as skipper.
New York Yankees
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This is less of an indictment on the Yankees, and more on how good the AL East is.
The Yankees won 94 games last season, which wasn't enough to win baseball's toughest division. The defending AL Champion Toronto Blue Jays arguably got better this offseason with the addition of Dylan Cease. Even after losing Alex Bregman, the Red Sox are still loaded with talent, particularly in the outfield and starting staff. The Tampa Bay Rays usually find a way to stay competitive, and won't have to play at a minor-league stadium this year. With the Baltimore Orioles making significant offseason improvements, it stands to reason the Yankees could win a few less games this year, even if they still contend for a playoff spot.
If you're looking for some reasons to be concerned about the Yankees, there are injury questions in their starting rotation, with Gerrit Cole returning from Tommy John surgery, Carlos Rodón having offseason surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow and former AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil, well, always an uncertain health proposition.
In the lineup, Giancarlo Stanton recently told NJ Advance Media's Randy Miller that he "can't open a bag of chips" because of his chronic elbow pain. To be fair, he had the pain a year ago, and still posted a .944 OPS in the 77 games he played. It's fair to wonder how sustainable having this level of elbow pain and still mashing baseballs will be for the 36-year-old, though.
This is largely nitpicking, because the Yankees should still be a really good team. However, in a division this deep, they may be more like a 90-win team in 2026, after winning 94 games last year.
Philadelphia Phillies
4 of 5
The Phillies have many similarities to the Yankees. They're arguably still the favorites to win the NL East title, but as things stand now, they project to be closer to a 92-win team than the 96 games they won last season.
The ceiling of the Phillies rotation is still high with the great one-two punch of Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo. But Zack Wheeler is coming back from thoracic outlet decompression surgery, Aaron Nola had a 6.01 ERA in 2025 and top prospect Andrew Painter is being counted on to fill at least some of the void created when Ranger Suárez departed for the Boston Red Sox in free agency this winter.
With a full season of Jhoan Duran and José Alvarado —along with the offseason addition of Brad Keller—the bullpen projects to be strong. But there are also concerns about just how good the lineup will be after the top trio of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner. Age also has to be a consideration here, with each of that trio in their age-33 seasons.
It remains to be seen whether the Mets are actually more talented than they were last season, but they probably are going to win more than the 83 games they did last year. Ditto for the Atlanta Braves, who had a disappointing 76-86 record last year. Even the Miami Marlins went 35-32 after the All-Star Break last season.
The Phillies may win their third NL East title in a row in 2026, which would send them to the postseason for the fifth consecutive campaign. That doesn't mean they will win quite as many games as last year.
Milwaukee Brewers
5 of 5
Every year, the Brewers seem to lose a key veteran(s) and look poised to take a step back, only to become a story of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts.
So we've learned our lesson in betting against two-time defending NL Manager of the Year Pat Murphy's squad. They are going to be competitive, and may very well hold off the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds for the NL Central title.
With that said, the Brewers won an MLB-best 97 games last season. It's not unreasonable to think that after trading Freddy Peralta—who finished fifth in NL Cy Young Award voting last year—the Brewers will be a few games worse in 2026. There's also quite a bit of health concern with Brandon Woodruff, who has pitched 131.2 innings since the start of the 2023 season.
The good thing about predicting a team that won 97 games to take a slight step back the next year is there doesn't need to be much of a dip. The Brewers could literally win 96 games and it would still be correct. Without Peralta, a small decline in wins seems likely.
