Predicting the NFL's Most Shocking Cuts of the 2026 Offseason

Cut season is upon us in the NFL. 

And while a lot of veteran releases are rather predictable, there are always some surprises. 

Here are seven potential shock cuts this offseason. 

All salary-related information courtesy of Spotrac

Minnesota Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson

AP Photo/Matt Krohn

T.J. Hockenson

The Reality Check

The veteran averaged a career-low 6.6 yards per target during an unproductive 2025 campaign. He has scored just three touchdowns since the start of the 2024 season and will turn 29 this summer. 

The Financial Fallout

His $21.4 million 2026 cap hit is the highest at the tight end position. The Vikings are in a bad cap situation but can immediately save nearly $9 million by parting ways with Hockenson. 

The Bottom Line

Because the Vikings are already paying Justin Jefferson huge bucks, they may decide to move on from either Hockenson or Jordan Addison this offseason.

At the very least, I'd expect them to require Hockenson to restructure his deal if he wants to stick around. But because they'd be taking a weapon away while fancying themselves a contender, an outright release would surprise the football world.

Chicago Bears TE Cole Kmet

AP Photo/Lachlan Cunningham

Cole Kmet

The Reality Check

Rookie sensation Colston Loveland emerged as maybe the most reliable and efficient pass-catcher on the Bears roster in 2025, while Kmet caught just 30 passes for 347 yards and scored only twice. He just isn't a high-impact member of Ben Johnson's offense.

The Financial Fallout

Chicago can pocket $8.4 million in cap space by moving on from the 26-year-old. That could come in handy for a team in the red in terms of the salary cap at this stage. 

The Bottom Line

They'll likely keep him around because they run so many two-tight end sets, but a restructuring should be a necessity. They could also consider using a Day 2-type pick on a guy who could compete for that second tight end role. 

Green Bay Packers DL Rashan Gary

AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps

AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps

The Reality Check

Micah Parsons is the guy now in Green Bay, and assuming he recovers from his torn ACL this offseason, the team could opt to give more support snaps on the edge to Kingsley Enagbare and Lukas Van Ness. Gary is coming off back-to-back "meh" 7.5-sack campaigns. 

The Financial Fallout

The 28-year-old is owed more than $28 million for 2026, and the Packers have very limited cap flexibility. They can save nearly $11 million by releasing the former first-round pick. 

The Bottom Line

Gary is no longer a top priority and could be released if the team can't work out a favorable restructure. 

Pittsburgh Steelers DT Cameron Heyward

AP Photo/David Richard

Cameron Heyward

The Reality Check

While Heyward had a strong year despite his age, he is a 15-year veteran who will turn 37 in May. His production declined altogether despite a second-team All-Pro nod in 2025.

The Financial Fallout

He's slated to make $19.2 million in a walk year in 2026, but the Steelers can save $14.3 million against the cap by parting ways. 

The Bottom Line

If the Steelers are resetting at quarterback and potentially entering somewhat of a rebuild, it might simply make sense to move on at this stage. The same could apply to linebacker Patrick Queen, whose release would save them $13.3 million. 

New York Giants DL Dexter Lawrence 

AP Photo/John Locher

Dexter Lawrence

The Reality Check

After putting up 21 sacks in the previous three seasons, Lawrence recorded just half a sack while being hampered by a lingering elbow injury in 2025. He remains a key figure in the Giants' defense, but at 28, it's possible his best days are behind him. 

The Financial Fallout

He's on track to cost the G-Men nearly $27 million in 2025, which is the second-highest cap hit on the team. They can save more than $13 million by releasing him. 

The Bottom Line

The Giants are in the midst of a rebuild. They can afford to keep Lawrence around, but a new coaching staff could prefer to go in a new direction and give some younger guys more room to spread their wings. And it's not as though Big Blue is cap-rich with only $7 million in current cap room.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers DL Vita Vea

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

Vita Vea

The Reality Check

The aging Bucs have a lot of tough decisions to make with expensive veterans this offseason, and Vea saw his productivity drop off in his age-30 season. He's still a critical member of the defense but could be declining after eight years. 

The Financial Fallout

Vea will cost the Bucs $22.2 million, unless he restructures or the team releases him to generate $15.7 million in salary-cap savings for 2026. 

The Bottom Line

The Bucs have two top-30 free agents in Jamel Dean and Mike Evans and may be looking for somewhat of a refresh. It's more likely they work something out just because his departure would leave a hell of a hole up front.

Buffalo Bills DL Ed Oliver

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

Ed Oliver

The Reality Check

Injuries destroyed the veteran's 2025 season, and his production had already dipped in 2024. At 28, there are real questions about whether he can return to his previous level of play.

The Financial Fallout

The Bills are again in a tight cap situation, and Oliver is one of the highest-priced players on the roster with a $23.9 million 2026 cap hit. If the team releases him with a post-June 1 designation, it can save $14.7 million in cap space. 

The Bottom Line

There's a new defensive coordinator in town and Oliver is heading in the wrong direction in terms of both effectiveness and cost. The Bills will need him to restructure or they should consider moving on.