Biggest Remaining Games for Men's NCAA Tournament Top Contenders
At this stage of the college basketball season, the leading contenders for the 2026 men's NCAA tournament are a well-established group.
These programs are stone-cold March Madness locks. They are trending toward a top-two seed—maybe a top-three position, at worst—in the Big Dance. And they are dreaming of a run to the championship stage of the Final Four.
But as that grand vision looms, the regular season is not over.
Down the stretch, some big-time matchups await. The value of a résumé boost is less important than top teams continuing to show their power and approach the NCAA tourney as confidently as possible.
Arizona Wildcats
1 of 8
To close February and open March, the Wildcats have a gnarly back-to-back against Kansas and Iowa State. Both are top-10 opponents, real championship hopefuls, and would love to take down Arizona.
But the biggest game left on UA's schedule is the next one.
Saturday afternoon—that would be Feb. 21—the Cats travel to second-ranked Houston. As if that alone isn't motivation enough, Houston will be looking to get back on a winning track following its close loss at Iowa State.
Again, the importance of that result isn't necessarily about Arizona's résumé. Recent losses to Kansas and Texas Tech have been frustrating, though.
Taking on all of Houston, KU, and Iowa State before the Big 12 tournament is a heck of a finish for a talented Arizona team.
Connecticut Huskies
2 of 8
Given how poorly the Big East has played this season overall, there are literally only two options for Connecticut's tough game.
Behind the conference-leading Huskies, only St. John's and Villanova should make the NCAA tournament. Seton Hall has a fighting chance, at least, but that likelihood is dwindling with every loss.
So, which one is tougher?
UConn has to play at Villanova (Feb. 21), which took the Huskies to overtime in their earlier matchup. Sensible pick. I'll lean toward St. John's (Feb. 25), considering the regular-season Big East crown is more contingent on that outcome.
Either way, the reality is that UConn just has a couple of major opponents left before the Big Dance begins in a month.
Duke Blue Devils
3 of 8
How about this late-season treat?
Top-ranked Michigan is set to meet No. 3 Duke on Saturday, Feb. 21, for a neutral-site showdown in the nation's capital. That's the best regular-season game remaining on any schedule, let alone for an individual team.
Inside the conference, however, the Blue Devils have one final roadblock between them and another ACC title: Virginia.
That contest is slated for Saturday, Feb. 28, and Duke is hosting. Win that one, and the Blue Devils will essentially wrap up the ACC's top seed.
Florida Gators
4 of 8
After a slower start to the campaign than hoped, Florida has turned that difficult nonconference slate into a steady run through the SEC.
To date, the Gators are 11-2 in conference play. They've picked up quality wins over Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Kentucky along the way, and they've also beaten NCAA-bound Texas A&M.
Arkansas is awaiting on the horizon, though.
John Calipari's team is among the closest chasers in the standings, and UA journeys to Gainesville on Saturday, Feb. 28, for a critical prime-time clash.
As with Duke against UVA, a victory for UF would practically clinch a league title.
Houston Cougars
5 of 8
Flip a coin, and I wouldn't argue with the answer.
The last three opponents on Houston's docket are Colorado, Baylor, and Oklahoma State, none of which are anything more than a bubble team.
On the other hand, the Cougars' next two games are home to Arizona (Feb. 21) and at Kansas (Feb. 23).
If you prefer to say Arizona, I have no serious disagreement. My lean is toward KU because Houston will be traveling and on short rest for that Big 12 showdown, injecting a bit of negative context for the Coogs.
The overarching storyline is clear: Houston needs to win both games in order to stay atop the Big 12 standings.
Illinois Fighting Illini
6 of 8
When the regular season ends, Illinois fans will likely be lamenting a few tight losses. Nebraska beat the Illini by three in December, and both Michigan State and Wisconsin clipped them in overtime.
That frustration may actually only increase if U of I upsets Michigan.
Perhaps it seems a backward way of thinking, sure. Illinois certainly will not be disappointed if that Feb. 27 showdown goes its way, particularly if the visiting Wolverines are still ranked No. 1 at the time.
Right now, the Big Ten standings have Illinois in striking distance but just far enough behind U-M that destiny—which cannot be controlled—is not in the Illini's favor.
Still, if they upend Michigan, that would be a huge boost as March begins.
Iowa State Cyclones
7 of 8
The bad news is that Iowa State, sitting at three conference losses, needs a little help to have a shot at winning a Big 12 title.
However, the good news is the Cyclones landed marquee wins over Kansas and Houston lately and still have BYU, Texas Tech, and Arizona left on their schedule. They are getting hot at the perfect time.
Well, hopefully.
Any of those Big 12 opponents could slow ISU's roll, but a March 2 trip to Arizona is looking like the toughest of all because of injuries. BYU recently lost Richie Saunders to a right ACL tear, as did Texas Tech with JT Toppin.
Avoiding a misstep in the final stretch of February will allow Iowa State to set up a wild Monday night in McKale against the Cats.
Michigan Wolverines
8 of 8
From a national perspective, you already know the answer. Michigan is readying for a top-three clash with Duke on Feb. 21 in Washington, D.C.
That is must-see TV for college basketball fans.
In the aftermath, though, the Maize and Blue return to Big Ten play. Michigan is almost comfortably ahead in the standings, and winning at Illinois (Feb. 27) may literally clinch the regular-season crown, pending a few other results.
But there's no question U-M is also looking forward to hosting rival Michigan State on March 8. Michigan hasn't won in East Lansing and Ann Arbor in the same season since the 2013-14 campaign.
Duke is the showdown. Illinois is the trophy game. MSU might just be the prize.
.png?w=600 "Who Will Panthers Take at No. 9 ? 🤔")
