2026 NFL Draft: Biggest Winners and Losers from CFP Playoffs
No games matter more during an NFL draft evaluation than the biggest contests against the best competition. The College Football Playoff is routinely loaded with some of the best talent and brightest stars before they make the leap to the professional level.
It's here where an opportunity exists to gain or lose the most traction as draft season begins in earnest.
While not inevitable, the Indiana Hoosiers' run to their first national championship felt like fate. Curt Cignetti's squad was directed by Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who clearly answered any lingering questions about him as a prospect and where he should go in the draft.
Conversely, Indiana's previous wins over the Alabama Crimson Tide and Oregon Ducks only created more uncertainty for teams desperately wanting to address quarterback in April's first round.
That's merely the starting point. Bleacher Report has identified four prospects who gained the most over the last month and those who faltered when their teams needed them the most.
Winner: QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
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Fernando Mendoza went from being the favorite to hear his name called No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL draft to a near-lock as the future quarterback of the Las Vegas Raiders.
At the start of the College Football Playoff, some uncertainty existed about who could ultimately be QB1. Mendoza was the frontrunner, of course, but Oregon's Dante Moore had an opportunity to impress and possibly take over the spot.
Well, Mendoza went on to throw more touchdowns than incompletions during his first two playoff appearances, outplay Moore when the two were on the field at the same time and punctuate an already historic season with one of the gutsiest performances ever seen by a quarterback during a national championship game.
Mendoza answered the bell every...single...time this past season. He remained unflappable whenever he made a mistake or adversity arose. In each major instance, the junior prospect responded, usually by leading a touchdown drive.
Meanwhile, the 20-year-old Moore chose a return to Oregon for another season, which further cemented Mendoza's status. No other quarterback among the incoming crop is viewed as a potential Tier 1 option. It's Mendoza or bust.
Once the Raiders choose Mendoza with the first pick, another first-round quarterback may not come off the board. The possibility does exist. Though it's probably more likely that at least one sneaks into the latter half of the opening frame.
Mendoza's status took a positive turn, because his situation developed into the closest thing the NFL draft gets to a guarantee. The Raiders may have had questions about what to do a month ago. The organization shouldn't have any now.
Loser: QB Ty Simpson, Alabama
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Ty Simpson's situation can almost be summed up as a win-lose scenario.
Simpson now holds the best odds of being the next quarterback off the board once Fernando Mendoza's name is called with the first overall pick in April's draft. When and where that occurs is definitely up in the air.
At one point, the Bleacher Report Scouting Department had Simpson rated as a top-15 prospect. But his performance declined late in the season, particularly during the College Football Playoff. The 23-year-old graduate threw four interceptions in three playoff games. In fact, he didn't even finish his final collegiate game. Instead, he was on the bench after taking multiple hits from the Indiana Hoosiers' defense.
"He said he played through a building disc in his back, bursitis in his elbow and had a reaction to some medication that inflamed the lining in his stomach (during the regular season)," Chris Low of ON3 reported.
"And then in the playoff loss to Indiana, he said he cracked the 10th rib on his left side (the floating rib) late in the first half while scrambling and taking a helmet to the ribs and fumbling, an injury that can be especially painful when trying to bend or twist."
Simpson's recent injury history is a double-edged sword. His toughness can't be questioned, which is a positive. But the fact he dealt with multiple issues during his only season as a starter has to create slight pause.
Basically, the quarterback setup among the incoming class isn't strong beyond its top option. Simpson could be the next best, but he's not coming off the type of playoff performance to build positive momentum heading into the off-field portion of the draft cycle.
Winner: WR De'Zhaun Stribling, Ole Miss
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De'Zhaun Stribling played extremely well during Ole Miss' final five contests. The two-time transfer from Washington State and Oklahoma State went from playing second fiddle in the Rebels' offense to being truly featured.
During that stretch, he caught 25 passes for 420 yards and four touchdowns, including a 122-yard outing against the Georgia Bulldogs in the College Football Playoff. During the previous 10 outings, the senior receiver produced 30 receptions for 391 yards and two scores.
Stribling peaked at the right time and showed off where he can win at the next level. The 6'2", 210-pound target knows how to use his body, highpoint passes and secure contested catches because of a sturdy frame and the strength to play through contact. He also displays good long-speed in order to be a threat at all three levels.
Furthermore, the much-traveled wide receiver also contributes as a strong blocker on the edges. He is the type of skill-position performer who puts in the work to turn a good run into a big play.
NFL teams in search of a true X-receiver can look to Stribling as an excellent option during Day 2 of the draft. The same couldn't have been said two months ago when he was struggling to find his footing in Ole Miss' explosive offense.
Loser: TE Max Klare, Ohio State
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[Cue Boromir from The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring meme.] One does not simply play tight end and expect a big role as a receiver in the Ohio State Buckeyes' offense.
Almost every season, the Buckeyes field an NFL talent at tight end only to underutilize the position.
Max Klare entered the 2025 campaign with the potential to become TE1 for the 2026 class. He fell prey to the same issues as those who played the position in Columbus before him.
Anyone who closely covers or follows the draft will tell you not to scout the helmet. Instead, scout the individual. In this particular case, Ohio State has a long enough track record of not fully featuring its tight ends through multiple coaching staffs and play-callers that a person can't help but factor it into the equation.
However, a glimmer of hope existed when Klare caught seven passes for 105 yards and a touchdown against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in a November contest. Granted, the Buckeyes were down their top two wide receivers due to injuries. But it felt like a moment where the tight end could build some momentum and become a more featured target.
Instead, the Purdue transfer caught five passes for 48 yards in Ohio State's final three games, including being shut out during the Buckeyes' playoff contest against the Miami Hurricanes.
When a tight end's game is predicated on athleticism, explosiveness and his potential as a receiver, no catches despite playing the most snaps of any game that season doesn't help the individual's draft status.
Winner: OT Markel Bell, Miami
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Two huge left tackle prospects with NFL upside participated in the College Football Playoff. One continued to ascend, while the other saw his draft stock plummet.
Miami's Markel Bell fell on the positive side of the ledger. The former JUCO transfer showed continual improvement during his final season on campus, particularly late in the season.
At a listed 6'9" and 345 pounds, Bell is a massive human being, who's automatically difficult to beat based on his size and length. But he's not simply a large obstacle for pass-rushers to get around like some inanimate blocking dummy. He displayed good movement skills relative to his stature.
Obviously, any mountainous left tackle will have trouble moving in relation to blockers a few inches shorter and 40 to 50 pounds lighter. At the same time, a massive wingspan, coupled with consistency within the player's footwork, tends to offset the more sudden movements required by smaller linemen.
In Bell's case, he's shown improved technique throughout the process, which helped his pass protection as the season progressed. Furthermore, his size and demeanor allow him to be an intimidating presence in the run game. Just ask the Indiana Hoosiers' 5'9", 170-pound cornerback D'Angelo Ponds.
Obviously, a downside exists with this type of prospect. Bell can lose leverage because of his natural pad-level. He also isn't going to be the most fluid when asked to redirect, which creates an opportunity for defenders to win when they sell fakes and the offensive tackle bites.
Despite those concerns, Bell's towering frame and nimble feet signaled the type of left tackle prospect with the potential to develop into a starter on some quarterback's blind side.
Loser: OT Isaiah World, Oregon
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Everything previously described about what could go wrong for a massive offensive tackle prospect did with Oregon's Isaiah World during the College Football Playoff.
While Miami's Markel Bell impressed, World couldn't have been more disappointing. Unfair expectations may have played a role.
Prior to the start of the 2025 campaign, the Nevada transfer was viewed as a potential first-round draft pick. After all, the 6'8", 318-pound blocker started three seasons for the Wolf Pack and was about to enter a situation known for developing high-level offensive line prospects.
Obviously, further development was baked into that original projection. It never happened.
World struggled mightily during the Ducks' two postseason appearances. His poor footwork, balance and pad level were all exploited to the point where he surrendered multiple quarterback hits and pressures. Pass-rushers rocked the left tackle by getting under his pads and walking him into the quarterback. He failed to anchor, tried to overcompensate and then struggled to set a strong edge against speed.
Nothing about his performance portended a prospect ready to contribute at the professional level. To make matters worse, the second-team All-Big Ten selection pulled out of the Senior Bowl due to a lower-body injury he suffered during the Peach Bowl, according to Arden Cravalho of Sports Illustrated. So, the opportunity to turn things around with an impressive performance in Mobile, Ala., won't be available, either.
NFL teams love to invest in size and upside. World has both. He's also much further behind other prospects when it comes to technique and consistency, which was on full display during Oregon's playoff appearances.
Winner: Edge Akheem Mesidor, Miami
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An argument can be made in favor of Miami's Akheem Mesidor as the smoothest, most advanced pass-rusher among the 2026 draft class. His performance throughout the CFP certainly helped make a strong case.
While teammate Rueben Bain Jr. is a powder keg off the edge, often through blockers, Mesidor is a more traditional pass-rusher with the ability to use quickness, flexibility and an array of moves to turn the corner and flatten toward opposing quarterbacks.
The sixth-year senior finished his final season on campus with team-leading 12.5 sacks, including a pair of two-sack playoff performances against the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers. His four forced fumbles also tied for sixth among all FBS defenders.
Prior to Monday's national championship, Mesidor posted a higher pass-rush grade and win rate than Bain during the Hurricanes' first two postseason appearances, according to Pro Football Focus. His 11 pressures against the Texas A&M Aggies were the second-most ever in a college football playoff game.
Age continues to be the biggest hang-up for the Canadian import. Mesidor, who originally played for the West Virginia Mountaineers, turns 25 prior to April's draft.
Typically, older prospects aren't as highly valued throughout the process, because they don't present nearly as much upside. In this particular case, Mesidor's floor is high enough where he can't be ruled out as a late first-round option, particularly after he consistently harassed quarterbacks while playing under the biggest and brightest lights.
His performance during these latest outings will matter greatly, especially for an organization that needs immediate juice for an anemic pass rush.
Loser: LB Arvell Reese, Ohio State
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Arvell Reese is every bit of a top-10 prospect for the 2026 NFL draft. However, he wasn't the same impact performer when the games mattered the most, which ruined his momentum entering the postseason.
Almost all of the examples from his rise into elite status were from earlier in the season, where he showed a level of dominance that opened a lot of eyes.
When Ohio State faced the Indiana Hoosiers in the Big Ten Championship Game and the Miami Hurricanes in the Cotton Bowl Classic, Reese felt like a non-factor.
To be fair, the linebacker made seven tackles during the Buckeyes' lone playoff appearance. But the primary issue stemmed from his and Ohio State's inability to match the physicality of its final two opponents. Reese was supposed to be the tone-setter. He wasn't.
Furthermore, defensive coordinator Matt Patricia decided not to unleash the reigning Big Ten Linebacker of the Year and consensus All-American by using him as a versatile piece capable of playing in space or attacking opposing quarterbacks. In fact, Reese didn't register a single sack after Nov. 1.
To be clear, the argument in this particular case isn't built around Reese playing poorly. He was deployed differently, with opponents keying on his alignment more as the season progressed. His situation is matter of perspective.
As the regular season came to a close, Reese had garnered supporters as the potential No. 1 overall prospect. He never looked the part during the campaign's biggest moments.
Reese still had an amazing season and rose up draft boards, but the opportunity existed to do more. The 20-year-old underclassman failed to reach that rarefied status thanks to nondescript outings against the best opposition.
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