BS Meter on Latest MLB Trade and Free-Agency Rumors With Analysis, Predictions
Major League Baseball's offseason hot stove kicked into overdrive late last week with a rare three-team swap getting overshadowed by Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette becoming two of the highest-salaried players in the sport.
The fireworks show isn't over yet, though, and the rumor mill is always swirling.
Cody Bellinger, Framber Valdez and more are still available as free agents who could drastically change how we feel about the divisional races heading into Opening Day. There's also the ever-present possibility of more trades, with Freddy Peralta, Nico Hoerner and Teoscar Hernández among the latest scuttlebutt on that front.
Which rumors are legit and which are total BS?
Time to bust out the BS Meter to do some sniff tests.
The higher the number, the more the rumor smells of malarkey. And the following rumors are presented in ascending order of odor.
Dodgers Likely to Keep Teoscar Hernández?
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The Rumor: Even after the massive signing of RF Kyle Tucker, it is "more likely than not" that LF/RF Teoscar Hernández will still be with the Dodgers on Opening Day, per The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal.
BS Meter: 0.5 out of 10
The Dodgers went out and spent $240M on four years of Kyle Tucker because they weren't content with their outfield situation, namely some combination of Alex Call in left, Tommy Edman in center and Andy Pages oscillating between the two.
Well, if they traded away Teoscar Hernández, they'd be right back in that same spot—albeit with a much more valuable right fielder in Tucker.
Sure, there's financial motivation to moving Teo. His contract counts at $19.9M on the luxury tax payroll, which means he also comes with a $21.9M tax hit to the Dodgers, who are operating with a payroll more than $100M above the highest tax threshold.
But do you think they really care?
After the lack of a reliable left fielder was one of their biggest problems throughout the entire 2025 campaign?
They've also already paid Hernández $33.5M of his $66M contract, and about half of what's left is deferred to 2030-39. In other words, they don't actually owe him anywhere close to $19.9M in 2026, even though that's what he's taxed at.
With Cody Bellinger and Harrison Bader still available in free agency while Steven Kwan, Jarren Duran, Byron Buxton and others are out there as trade candidates, there's probably not all that much hunger for a 33-year-old defensive liability who posted a .284 OBP last season. But maybe someone surprises the Dodgers with a big offer for what figures to be their primary LF.
Orioles Adding Justin Verlander?
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The Rumor: Lost amid the chaos of Thursday and Friday, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal identified the Baltimore Orioles as a suitor for Justin Verlander's 43-year-old services.
BS Meter: 1.0 out of 10
After trading for Shane Baz and re-signing Zach Eflin, the Orioles have a six-man rotation in which the costliest arm is making just $10M in 2026.
Well, Verlander made $15M last season, and though he has now made more than $400M in his career, it's hard to imagine he'll accept less than $10M for another season.
Would the Orioles really make him their highest-paid starting pitcher in what would then be a seven-man rotation without a true ace? Or are they in more of a "sign Framber Valdez, trade for Freddy Peralta or just let it ride" position with their rotation?
Notably, Kyle Bradish is the only Oriole that Steamer projects as a top 50 pitcher in 2026, but Verlander doesn't rank top 100 and would just be another "borderline No. 3 or No. 4 starter" in a heap of those arms that Baltimore already has.
There's one big reason why it makes sense, though: Baltimore's current six-man rotation has logged a combined total of 33.1 innings pitched in the postseason, compared to Verlander's 226.0 innings and two World Series rings.
Whether his arm actually betters the rotation is open to debate, but his veteran leadership and October experience could be downright invaluable. He easily could be for Baltimore what Max Scherzer was for Toronto in 2025.
Yankees Won't Increase Offer for Cody Bellinger?
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The Rumor: The Yankees will not partake in a bidding war for Cody Bellinger if anyone else comes along with a better offer than their reported proposal of five years, $160M with opt-outs, per Newark Star-Ledger's Bob Klapisch.
BS Meter: 1.5 out of 10.
The Yankees have shown in recent years that they aren't going to spend top dollar for free agents just because they have the revenue stream to do so—much to the dismay of a fanbase who remembers the way things used to be under George Steinbrenner.
They decide what they're willing to spend, and they stick to it.
They made big bids for Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Juan Soto, but were ultimately willing to pass on those stars when the Dodgers and Mets offered more. Even in the Aaron Judge negotiations a few years ago, they almost lost their superstar to the Giants before agreeing to a nine-year, $360M contract that looks like a bargain compared to what Kyle Tucker just got.
So if the reports around the team are that they've dug in their heels at 5/$160M for Bellinger, those reports are probably accurate. ESPN's Buster Olney did say a little over a week ago that the Yankees and Bellinger had reached an impasse in their negotiations, which could simply be a case of New York making a "take it or leave it" proposal.
The real question is what the Mets, Giants and Blue Jays will do with that information as the three other teams presumably still in the Bellinger market.
Steve Cohen winning with a bid of $161M for five years would be objectively hilarious.
Red Sox Trading from Revamped Rotation?
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The Rumor: After acquiring Ranger Suárez, Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo this winter, the Boston Red Sox could trade from their deep starting rotation to address other roster deficiencies, per Sean McAdam of Mass Live and The Athletic's Jen McCaffrey.
BS Meter: 2.0 out of 10
At least as far as roster construction is concerned, this one is the furthest thing from BS.
The Red Sox basically have two full starting rotations at this point and question marks throughout the infield. Meanwhile, the New York Mets basically have two full infields at this point and have done nothing yet about their problematic starting rotation. It almost feels inevitable that those two teams will figure out a swap within the next month.
What's the actual rumor, though?
We can all drum up hypothetical trade packages, but which arm(s) are they willing to part with? Presumably not Garrett Crochet or any of the three they recently added, but perhaps Brayan Bello? Or one of Payton Tolle or Connelly Early?
And with Ketel Marte allegedly no longer on the trade block, who's the target? Maybe Isaac Paredes, given Houston's infield logjam? Bello for Brett Baty? Or something like Tolle to St. Louis for Brendan Donovan?
The general speculation of a SP-for-IF swap makes perfect sense for Boston, but wake us up when there's a specific name in either direction here.
Brewers Moving Freddy Peralta?
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The Rumor: Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post on Saturday, the Brewers "continue to field offers" for Freddy Peralta, with the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants and Braves "among many, many interested teams."
BS Meter: 4.5 out of 10
First of all, if Peralta is on the move and it's the Dodgers who acquire him, we riot.
In general, though, we're slightly buying the notion that teams are growing increasingly desperate to trade for Peralta, and that a deal could come together in the next couple of weeks. (It was on February 1 two years ago that the Brewers traded Corbin Burnes to Baltimore, so don't go thinking a trade is unlikely based on how far we've made it into the offseason calendar without it happening.)
Of the teams Heyman mentioned, the Mets and Giants make the most sense as clubs possibly willing to sell the farm for Peralta's elite arm. The Orioles, Diamondbacks, Guardians and even the Tigers would figure to be prominently in the mix, too, for an ace who only costs $8M in his final season before free agency.
The unknown in all of this is Milwaukee's asking price.
They got a nice haul of DL Hall, Joey Ortiz and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick for one year of Burnes, and he was owed nearly twice as much ($15.6M) for his final season of team control. You have to think they would need to be blown away to part with Peralta, in part because they also have a much better outlook for the upcoming season than they did at this point two years ago.
But if the Mets continue to make panic moves and offer up Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, would Milwaukee be able to say no?
Possible Cardinals Reunion with Harrison Bader?
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The Rumor: The St. Louis Cardinals "have room" for a right-handed outfielder, with president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom saying that Harrison Bader could be a possibility, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
BS Meter: 7.0 out of 10
The "have room" portion of this one is irrefutable. The Cardinals' projected outfield is lefty-hitting Lars Nootbaar, lefty-hitting Victor Scott II and righty-hitting Jordan Walker, the latter of whom was the least valuable player in the entire 2025 season, per Baseball-Reference WAR.
That trio had a combined OPS of roughly .630 and all would be replaceable for a team that's actually trying to win in 2026.
But after trading away three veterans with eight-figure salaries already this offseason, why in the world would the Cardinals go out and sign a veteran to an eight-figure salary?
Targeting Austin Hays makes way more sense for St. Louis. Or if they're dead set on bringing back an outfielder who used to be on the team, Dylan Carlson is still available as a much younger and much cheaper option than Bader.
As far as Bader is concerned, the more likely return to old stomping grounds would be with the Mets, who still desperately need an outfielder and might be out of the running for Cody Bellinger following the $126M acquisition of Bo Bichette.
Blue Jays Pivoting to Framber Valdez?
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The Rumor: In the aftermath of Kyle Tucker signing with the Dodgers, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported that the Blue Jays had an in-person meeting with Framber Valdez back in November—prior to signing Dylan Cease—and perhaps they'll take some of the 10-year, $350M offer they reportedly made to Tucker and pivot to the southpaw.
BS Meter: 8.5 out of 10
Save for occasional mentions of the Orioles' interest level, Framber Valdez's market has been strangely quiet all offseason.
But he's eventually going to sign somewhere, right?
And the Blue Jays are clearly all-in on winning in 2026, right?
It's still an unlikely pairing.
For starters, Toronto already has a full supply of starters, set up to roll with Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage and José Berríos, with Cody Ponce, Eric Lauer, Bowden Francis and Ricky Tiedemann also among their stockpile of options.
The Blue Jays signing Valdez would be about as superfluous as the Red Sox signing Ranger Suárez with all the rotation options they already had.
It would also cost them way more, as Toronto has a tax payroll about $60M higher than where Boston was before signing Suárez. Every dollar the Blue Jays add to their payroll at this point comes with a 90 cent tax. So if they add Valdez at a $35M AAV, it would add $31.5M to their tax payment, too.
They were willing to bite that bullet for Tucker, but for Valdez? Probably not.
Cubs Trading Nico Hoerner?
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The Rumor: Since signing Alex Bregman, the Cubs have gotten a lot of calls about Nico Hoerner and Matt Shaw, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. The Yankees, Mariners and Giants have all been linked as teams looking to acquire the two-time Gold Glove middle infielder.
BS Meter: 9.9 out of 10
Over the past four seasons, Nico Hoerner has been one of the 20 or so most valuable position players in all of baseball. And in his final season before hitting free agency for the first time, he will only cost the Chicago Cubs $12M.
But because they signed Alex Bregman and because Matt Shaw is presumably now the long-term plan at second base, many jumped to the conclusion that Hoerner must be on the trade block, or at least more gettable than he was a week ago.
Simply put, that is ludicrous.
On the whole, Shaw had a solid rookie season, and he was much better in the second half than in the first half. If they hadn't landed Bregman and had little choice but to roll with Shaw as the primary third baseman, they probably would have been fine with that.
However, Shaw wasn't "trade away an elite 2B just because" great. And the reason they signed Bregman shortly after trading for Edward Cabrera is because that's when they knew how much they could afford with the final splash of what they hope is a championship puzzle.
There has been talk of Shaw playing some outfield this season, so they might use him as a super-utilityman for a year before locking him into a regular spot in the field in 2027. But Hoerner isn't going anywhere.
