2025-26 NFL MVP Winner Prediction and Complete Odds for Top Candidates

All resumes have been submitted for NFL MVP consideration.

Oddsmakers only care about two of them.

While there are technically a few hangers-on hovering at the very outskirts of this race, this is all about a couple of quarterbacks vying for the game's ultimate individual honor. We'll identify those candidates, dissect their cases and ultimately crown a predicted winner here.

NFL MVP Odds

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Matthew Stafford -175 (bet $175 to win $100)

Drake Maye +140 (bet $100 to win $140)

Trevor Lawrence +30000

Bo Nix +50000

Justin Herbert +50000

Caleb Williams +50000

Jaxon Smith-Njigba +50000

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top Contenders

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Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

If Stafford and the Rams hadn't stumbled a bit down the stretch, this race may have been called already. But those slipups happened—L.A. split its last six contests, and Stafford had five interceptions in those three losses.

Again, though, this didn't cause irreparable damage to his body of work. Rather, it just allowed Maye to keep hope alive. Because even with that choppy finish, Stafford still closed the campaign with the NFL's most passing yards (4,707) and most passing touchdowns (46—12 more than second place in the category), while L.A. reeled off a dozen wins while playing in the fully loaded NFC West.

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots

The Patriots came into this campaign on the heels of consecutive 13-loss seasons. Then, they messed around and matched their second-highest win total in franchise history (14). That rise wasn't all about Maye, but his fingerprints were strewn across this worst-to-first climb by the AFC East champions.

His counting categories weren't quite as loud (4,394 passing yards with 31 passing touchdowns), but his efficiency was off the charts. He nabbed the No. 1 spot in completion percentage (72), passer rating (113.5) and QBR (77.2). He also rushed for another 450 yards and four more scores, cementing his status as one of the sport's premier playmakers.

Prediction

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The helpful thing about a too-close-to-call race is that you can argue for either side and feel good about the case you present. There will be, as per usual, strong reactions upon hearing the results, but no one will (or at least should) argue that the win was undeserved.

In the end, we see Stafford taking it by the slightest of margins. And, no, we promise this wasn't decided by a flip of the coin.

It's just that Stafford's down-the-stretch stumbles didn't erase what was a fully dominant season—against a higher level of competition. This was a quarterbacking masterclass, and a lot of it came against this league's very best.

When the statistical cases look this similar, you have to find something to separate the candidates. Strength of schedule feels like that something this season. Stafford and the Rams thrived against the league's most difficult schedule, per TeamRankings. Maye and the Patriots, meanwhile, had the NFL's easiest draw.

When you're otherwise left picking nits, that feels like a pretty massive distinction. And it seems the most likely reason why Stafford will be collecting the first MVP honor of his storied career.