Winners and Losers of 2026 NFL Draft Order After Regular Season

Playoff considerations and draft positioning are the only two things that matter during Week 18 of the NFL season. If a team isn't battling for a postseason berth or better seeding, that organization is already looking toward the future in order to be counted among those squads eventually competing for a championship.

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft wasn't decided until the final Sunday of the regular season. How everything shook out during Week 18 created a gigantic impact on the top of the draft and its projection.

Multiple teams found within this year's Top 10 are desperately searching to address the game's most important position. Only two quarterbacks—Indiana's Fernando Mendoza and Oregon's Dante Moore—are considered top-tier options, though. Moore isn't even guaranteed to declare early for the upcoming class.

Otherwise, the first selection feels like a slam dunk. With the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft, the Las Vegas Raiders select...

Winner: Las Vegas Raiders

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Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza

The Raiders were left out in the cold during the last two NFL drafts despite searching for a quarterback and seeing a record six being selected in the first round of the 2024 class and two more chosen last year.

But the Raiders chose to bring in a veteran, Geno Smith, as an attempt to stabilize the team this past season. The move failed spectacularly, which created a situation where the franchise can finally draft a first-round quarterback for the first time since...*checks notes*...JaMarcus Russell with the top pick in 2007.

While the Russell experience ended as badly as it possibly could, long-time Raiders faithful should be ecstatic about the possibility of selecting Fernando Mendoza.

The Heisman Trophy winner is the antithesis of Russell as an NFL prospect. Mendoza's appeal is built around his football IQ and unflappable demeanor, particularly after making a mistake.

"He still has that much more he can go because of his physical ability," Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti said of Mendoza during an October interview on The Joel Klatt Show. "And one thing about him, he's a great person—strong values, extremely intelligent, cares about people, very active in the community. If there were 25 hours in a day, he'd spend all 25 preparing. 

"He wants to be great, and he does everything he can to be great, and teammates love him."

The Raiders have been rudderless without strong quarterback play. The team missed the postseason in four consecutive seasons and seven of its last eight.

This year's No. 1 overall pick can provide the franchise with an actual direction and a quarterback capable of elevating the play of those around him, which is what everyone in the NFL wants.

By being the NFL's biggest loser during the regular season, the Raiders emerged as the offseason's biggest winner.

Conversely, the New York Giants took the opposite approach. By winning its last two games, including a victory over the Raiders, Big Blue lost control of the No. 1 overall pick. In doing so, the Jaxson Dart-led squad lost leverage to trade that pick and gain significant draft assets. However, the fact New York already has its quarterback in place softens the blow, which keeps the Giants from being counted among those who damaged their status too much.

Winner: New York Jets

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Oregon quarterback Dante Moore

Typically, these articles fluctuate between the winners and losers. In this particular case, the organizations that own the top two picks in the 2026 NFL draft are both winners based on what's currently known, which is why they deserve to be mentioned first.

The New York Jets' situation is tenuous, though. Right now, they're winners. However, that status is dependent on Oregon's Dante Moore declaring for April's draft class.

Moore has yet to make a decision and will likely wait until the Ducks' season is done. The 20-year-old underclassman could realistically choose to return for another year on campus, particularly with what high-end collegiate quarterbacks are now making as part of NIL deals.

Granted, a NIL agreement pales in comparison to the guaranteed signing bonus of a high-end first-round contract. For example, last year's second overall draft pick, Travis Hunter, agreed to a $30.6 million signing bonus, with $46.7 million fully guaranteed. But the young man may realize he needs another year in college to set up a better long-term future. The possibility exists.

"There's no rush," Moore's father, Otha, told ESPN's Adam Rittenberg. "Whenever he feels like he's ready, he'll step up to that next level. Everyone says, 'Hey, you should go now, you should go now.' We don't care about the pick where he's going to go. It's just about the mental aspect."

One of Moore's most significant selling points is his poise, despite his age and relative lack of starting experience.

A Moore declaration creates opportunity, and the Jets know they'll be alright. Maybe the Raiders fall in love with the redshirt sophomore, which means Fernando Mendoza then slides to the Jets. Either way, Gang Green finally lands the caliber of quarterback prospect it wanted for so long.

As a bonus, the Jets won't be forced to package their second first-round pick acquired in the Sauce Gardner trade to trade up for a quarterback prospect. Instead, New York can use that selection to address a different need area.

Loser: Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

The Cleveland Browns have continually screwed up being screwups.

The organization remains in a perpetual state of stagnation because it can't seem to solve the riddle of finding a franchise quarterback. Cleveland chose five different first-round QBs since returning to the NFL during the 1999 season. Throw in five more chosen in the second or third rounds. All of them have failed.

Cleveland's historically bad blunder by trading for Deshaun Watson added an exclamation point to the organization's ineptitude.

A two-game winning streak to end the '25 campaign all but sealed Cleveland's fate in April's draft, because the Browns fell out of position to draft one of the top two quarterback prospects, even with the extra draft assets they hold for a potential trade-up scenario.

With the Raiders and Jets owning the top two selections, they're not going to move out of those slots when Mendoza and possibly Moore are available. Their needs at quarterback surpass the allure of acquiring a windfall of draft assets.

Another year before adequately addressing quarterback is another season falling further behind everyone else. The matter could be amplified with expectations of the team moving past head coach Kevin Stefanski. Usually, an organization prefers to marry a young quarterback with a new head coach.

Cleveland can once again add quality talent thanks to another top-10 pick, but this season showed that it doesn't matter without quality quarterback play. The Browns can feature an all-time great like Myles Garrett, who just posted a historic season, and still be counted among the league's worst.

Quarterback or bust is the only thought that matters on the North Coast, and the Browns find themselves in a less-than-ideal position to find a long-term solution.

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

AP Photo/David Becker

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid

A losing season that spiraled out of control doesn't feel like a winning setup for a perennial Super Bowl contender. It's not from an overall perspective. It is when looking at the long-term health of the Kansas City Chiefs' roster.

Kansas City's six-game losing streak to end the 2025 campaign does come with a silver lining. The organization owns a top-10 pick outright for the first time since the '13 class (excluding Patrick Mahomes' selection in 2017, as the Chiefs traded up to select the quarterback).

The Chiefs used the No. 1 overall pick during that aforementioned draft on left tackle Eric Fisher, which led to Andy Reid's first season as the team's head coach. It's been a minute since Kansas City added a top-tier prospect. It gets to do so again this offseason, which can help an aging and crumbling roster in need of a talent infusion.

Make no mistake, the Chiefs' Super Bowl window remains open. Mahomes may be coming off a season-ending knee injury, but he's only 30 years old. His presence alone elevates Kansas City's status. However, the quarterback's surrounding cast must improve.

General manager Brett Veach has an opportunity with this year's top-10 pick to add the best available talent regardless of position.

All Kansas City needs to do is be patient and see which prospect slides a little. The possibility of adding Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, linebacker Arvell Reese, Miami defensive end Rueben Bain Jr., LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane, Texas Tech edge-rusher David Bailey or Utah offensive tackle Spencer Fano is exciting.

After multiple questionable first-round decisions in the last six drafts, the Chiefs have a chance to land a legitimate building block as they prepare for a bounce-back season.

Loser: Indianapolis Colts

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Indianapolis Colts cornerback Sauce Gardner

No one, especially not those within the Indianapolis Colts organization, could imagine how poorly the season would end for Shane Steichen's squad. Yet, the Colts endured a season-ending injury to quarterback Daniel Jones and a seven-game losing streak to finish the 2025 campaign.

After starting with an 8-2 record, the Colts sat atop the AFC playoff standings. Before the team's eighth win, general manager Chris Ballard traded a pair of first-round draft picks to the New York Jets for two-time, first-team All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner.

Gardner was meant to be the final piece of the puzzle. Instead, his inclusion and subsequent calf injury only added to the implosion.

Indianapolis became the first team in the Super Bowl era to be six games over .500 during the season, only to finish with a losing record, according to ESPN Research (h/t Benjamin Solak).

What initially looked like a late first-round pick in return for Gardner settled into the top half of the frame, thus providing the Jets with far more value than initially believed.

Meanwhile, the Colts require a defensive overhaul, even with Gardner in the fold for an entire campaign next fall. Multiple high-profile veterans could be shown the door because they didn't show up when the team needed stops late in the season to earn a playoff berth.

A reset on that side of the ball is necessary, and the Colts no longer have a first-round pick this or next year to add premium talent. They went all in to win this season. Instead, Indianapolis experienced a full-fledged faceplant, while the Jets benefited.