Bold NBA Predictions for the Year 2026
The NBA gave us plenty of fireworks in 2025.
The Dallas Mavericks authored perhaps the most stunning and inexplicable trade in NBA history when they sent Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers. Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton both ruptured their Achilles tendons in the playoffs. The Oklahoma City Thunder won their first title. Cooper Flagg found his way to Dallas, despite the Mavs having a 1.8 percent chance of winning the lottery. Kevin Durant changed teams again. And LeBron James started a season on the injured list for the first time in his career.
But somehow, it feels like the league might be on the verge of an even bigger year in 2026. Our predictions for what to expect over the next 12 months can be found below.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Will Be Traded
1 of 10
The Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors have lost some heat in the last few weeks, but every Milwaukee Bucks loss fans the flames a bit (especially ones to tanking teams like the Washington Wizards on New Year's Eve).
And even if Giannis remains with the Bucks beyond this February's trade deadline, he'll find some way out before we ring in 2027.
Antetokounmpo, whether with his own words or through his camp, has been subtly (and sometimes not-so-subtly) hinting about a potential exit for years. And the entire time, Milwaukee's front office has been leveraging all their future assets to try to keep him happy.
Now, the Bucks have almost no significant trade assets beyond Giannis and a team that looks primed to finish the season below .500. They have a $22.5 million cap hit on their books in each of the four seasons after this one for stretching Damian Lillard's contract.
Without a Giannis trade, there isn't a clear path back to contention in the next few years.
So, Milwaukee can either...
- let Antetokounmpo dominate for a mediocre team until he hits his mid-30s, when the asset base starts to replenish but he'll be nearing the end of his career; or
- they can trade for him a rebuild-boosting and era-shifting package that could have them competitive again in a few years.
Consider this a bet that they'll take the latter path at some point before the 2026-27 season starts.
The Oklahoma City Thunder Will Finish 2025-26 with 70 Wins
2 of 10
Their pace has cooled off quite a bit in recent weeks, mostly thanks to three losses to the San Antonio Spurs, but the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to maintain their ridiculous pace and join the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors and 1995-96 Chicago Bulls as the only teams in league history to get to 70 wins in a season.
For one thing, OKC only has two games left with the team that appears to be their biggest matchup issue, and the young Thunder players will surely have revenge on their minds for the next one.
But even more importantly, they've gotten to the ridiculous record they have right now with Jalen Williams missing 19 games and not quite looking like his old self for the ones he's played.
To be missing their second-best player for that big a chunk of the season and still be plus-8.4 points per 100 possessions when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is off the floor is truly absurd.
It's also a testament to how deep this roster is. And that depth is going to allow them to keep blowing most teams out through April.
LeBron James Will Announce His Retirement...
3 of 10
...But he'll still play the 2026-27 campaign.
There's just no way one of the two or three best players in NBA history is going to walk away from the game without a retirement tour, especially when you consider how carefully LeBron James has managed his brand and career to this point.
After he announces at some point in 2026 (probably this summer), every game he plays in 2026-27 will be an event, particularly those on the road. Scores of fans will want to see him live one last time.
And though he won't be able to put on quite the same show he used to, LeBron will continue to set a new standard for NBA production after a 40th birthday.
There's no question he's slowed down in the last couple seasons, but he's still putting up 23.7 points, 7.9 assists and 7.3 rebounds since the start of his age-40 campaign.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Will Win 2025-26 MVP
4 of 10
Following news of Nikola Jokić's hyperextended knee that could cost him over four weeks of games, this barely qualifies as "bold," but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to repeat as MVP.
And while the betting odds may make this seem like a relatively unremarkable feat right now, the company SGA is about to join does the opposite.
In just a few short months, we'll be able to add SGA's name to the following list: Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jokić.
It's almost like a guided tour through NBA history, and Gilgeous-Alexander averaging somewhere around 32 points, six assists and five rebounds for a 70-win team will make him one of the stops on it.
Boston Celtics Will Make the Finals
5 of 10
Despite the absence of Jayson Tatum and the losses of Kristaps Porziņģis, Jrue Holiday and Al Horford, the Boston Celtics are entering 2026 in third place in the East.
And they've fought their way to that position despite three of their top four scorers (Derrick White, Payton Pritchard and Anfernee Simons) all having worse three-point percentages than their career marks.
At some point, any of them could get on a heater. And combining that with Jaylen Brown's superstar turn (he's averaging 29.5 points and 5.0 assists) will give Boston a puncher's chance against any Eastern Conference team in a playoff series.
But the real source of Celtics optimism, at least as it relates to another trip to the Finals, is the potential return of Jayson Tatum. Speculation on his season debut is heating up, with at least one local writer predicting a season debut in February.
If he has enough time to get his legs under him before the playoffs and is even 90 percent of the player he was prior to the ruptured Achilles, Boston is going to be a nightmare for other Eastern Conference contenders like the New York Knicks or Detroit Pistons.
Just imagine 25-30 of the minutes currently going to Josh Minott, Jordan Walsh or other young forwards shifting to Tatum. The talent upgrade will feel massive. The same goes for the residual effects.
Having Tatum on the court will give shooters like Simons, White and Pritchard precious extra time on catch-and-shoot opportunities. He'll juice their rebounding. He'll take pressure off of Brown.
In short, Boston could be adding a perennial All-NBA forward to a team that's already on pace for 50-plus wins. And that will be enough to make a return trip to the NBA Finals.
Nuggets Will Win the 2026 Finals
6 of 10
OK, now we're getting real bold.
Picking anyone but the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the title feels like a stretch. And at the moment, the Denver Nuggets are beyond compromised.
After Nikola Jokić hyperextended his knee against the Miami Heat this week, they're now down four starters (Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun and Cameron Johnson are also out). And with Jokić's recovery reportedly set to last at least four weeks, the Nuggets could plummet down the standings.
But it's only January. Jokić and the rest of the regulars figure to be back well in advance of the playoffs. If they're whole for that, they have as good a shot as anyone to take down the Thunder.
No one has a real answer for Jokić, but OKC's slight-framed bigs (at least relative to Jokić) are at a particular disadvantage against Denver's near-300-pounder. And this version of the Nuggets, following the acquisitions of Jonas Valančiūnas, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown, is a lot deeper than the one that lost to OKC in a Game 7 last season.
Add to that the fact that Jamal Murray is playing like he did during the 2023 postseason, and you can start to see how this team could upset the historically dominant Thunder.
AJ Dybantsa Will Be the No. 1 Pick
7 of 10
Right now, there are three very real contenders to be the top pick in the 2026 draft: Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa.
All three have been incredibly productive as freshmen. And the talent gaps between them (assuming there are any) are small enough that it might come down to which team wins the lottery.
If someone needs a bigger forward, Boozer would be the pick. A team in need of a dynamic lead guard could go with Peterson. But Dybantsa checks boxes that both of the others do, and wing is the easiest player archetype to build around.
And if Dybantsa keeps playing through conference games the way he has in his last six appearances (when he's averaged 27.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 2.3 steals), he'll enter the summer with a ton of momentum.
At Least One of Trae Young or Ja Morant Will Be Traded
8 of 10
This is another one that may not happen till the summer, but the Atlanta Hawks and Memphis Grizzlies are in similar positions with their longtime faces of the franchise.
For the Hawks, Jalen Johnson emerging as a real star, while Trae Young's defensive shortcomings become more glaring, has made it easy to imagine a post-Trae future.
It's not as easy to identify the next franchise cornerstone for Memphis, but Ja Morant's inconsistency and lack of availability have opened the door for his departure, too.
And while neither may have a ton of trade value right now (Atlanta is 2-8 with Young in the lineup this season, and Ja is shooting 40.2 percent from the field), some team (or teams) will fall for the historical production.
The NBA Will Announce Expansion
9 of 10
For years, NBA commissioner Adam Silver has sort of fluctuated between teasing expansion and deflecting the topic.
And most recently, at the NBA Cup in December, he leaned into the former approach.
"Not a secret, we're looking at this market in Las Vegas. We are looking at Seattle," Silver told reporters. "...I think now we're in the process of working with our teams and gauging the level of interest and having a better understanding of what the economics would be on the ground for those particular teams and what a pro forma would look like for them, and then sometime in 2026 we'll make a determination."
Those economic factors are the most important, but there's more than enough basketball talent in the world to support two more teams in the league. Expansion would also give the league an opportunity for conference realignment, a desperate need after a quarter century of Western Conference superiority. And having 32 teams could make events like the NBA Cup feel a little cleaner (a single-elimination tournament with all 32 could be a blast).
In other words, there's enough pointing toward expansion to reasonably believe that "determination" will be for the addition of two more organizations.
Victor Wembanyama Will Enter 2026-27 as the MVP Favorite
10 of 10
For the second year in a row, it looks like Victor Wembanyama is going to fall short of the 65-game minimum for postseason awards consideration.
And if his slight frame wasn't enough to make you worry about his durability, two seasons of nagging injuries probably should be.
But, when Wemby has been available, he's more than lived up to the hype. His ability to seemingly protect the rim while also shutting down the mid-range is the single biggest reason the San Antonio Spurs are 3-0 against OKC this season.
And while they won't break through for a title in 2026, expect Wembanyama to make enough noise in the spring and summer to establish himself as the betting favorite for MVP next season.
