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2025 NFL Week 18 Expert Picks
We're down to the final week of the 2025 regular season. Playoff teams are figuring out whether to play their starters or go with backups to avoid key injuries. So, what's the motivation for clubs eliminated from postseason contention?
Our panel of NFL experts, B/R analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell don't need incentives to provide sharp betting analysis for the last week of the season.
Though it's worth mentioning that the top five experts are separated by just five wins in the standings, and Gagnon took over the top spot.
Our crew is champing at the bit to dive into this slate with the best record against the spread yet to be decided in a tight competition.
Check out the standings and the breakdowns for Week 18 games.
ATS Standings
1. Gagnon 134-120-2
2. Moton: 133-121-2
3. Hanford: 131-123-2
4. Sobleski: 129-125-2
5. Knox: 128-126-2
6. O'Donnell: 121-133-2
7. Davenport: 116-138-2
Lone Wolf Picks: 31-26-1
Lines are from DraftKings as of Tuesday, Dec. 30, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Carolina Panthers (8-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
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Gagnon: Buccaneers (-2.5)
When push comes to shove, the Bucs are the more talented and battle-tested team for this moment. With everything on the line at home, I think they come through and win a close game with Tristan Wirfs back in the lineup.
Hanford: Panthers (+2.5)
I'll never quite understand what happened in Tampa Bay this year, but here we are. The Buccaneers have largely been a mess as losers of four games in a row, and now face a win-or-go-home game against a Panthers team that's been up and down but is easier to trust right now. Carolina won the first meeting between these two teams in Week 16, and I'm expecting the same result here.
Predictions
Panthers: Davenport, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Buccaneers: Gagnon, Knox, Moton
Seattle Seahawks (13-3) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
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Davenport: Seahawks (-1.5)
What the San Francisco 49ers have accomplished this season is remarkable—a team ravaged by injuries all season long is hosting a game with the chance to do so all the way through the Super Bowl. It's almost as ridiculous as Sam Darnold having a legitimate chance to win 14 games for the second regular season in a row.
Which quarterback steps up in this game will go a long way toward deciding it, but this pick still sides with Vegas and the healthier defense.
O'Donnell: 49ers (+1.5)
When the 49ers are getting points, I am taking them. It's that simple. This heavily-loaded matchup of playoff implications could set the stage for how both of these teams fare in the postseason. I trust San Francisco much more than I do Seattle.
Predictions
Seahawks: Davenport, Moton
49ers: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Tennessee Titans (3-13) at Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
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Knox: Jaguars (-12.5)
This is a lot of points to give in any divisional matchup, and the Titans have looked like a more competitive team in recent weeks. However, the Jags won by 22 the last time these two faced off, and I'm not convinced the rematch will be any closer. Jacksonville needs a win to clinch the AFC South, and I expect them to get it in convincing fashion in front of a home crowd.
Sobleski: Titans (+12.5)
Jacksonville does have a shot at claiming the AFC's No.1 seed, though the Jaguars have to be realistic about the scenario. With the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots facing the Justin Herbert-less Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins, respectively, one of those teams is almost certainly going to win their game and claim that top spot.
As such, the Jaguars can pull up a bit and not risk getting key contributors hurt by playing them throughout the entirety of Sunday's contest. The Titans have no qualms, because they need their young players on the field, specifically quarterback Cam Ward, to get reps and build some positive momentum going into the offseason.
Predictions
Titans: Davenport, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Jaguars: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton
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Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1) at New York Giants (3-13)
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Knox: Cowboys (-3.5)
This game means nothing for either team, but it could end up being one of the more entertaining contests of the week. Now that New York has ceded the No. 1 pick in the draft, there's little doubt that the Giants will play to win. So will the Cowboys, who have already announced that Dak Prescott will get the start. I'd expect the sort of back-and-forth offensive battle that ultimately favors Dallas.
O'Donnell: Giants (+3.5)
I don't know which Giants team will show up, but you can't ask players not to play their best on each and every snap. The narrative around the Big Blue "losing" the No. 1 pick in the 2026 by winning last week doesn't mean a thing to the players.
The Cowboys are coming off extra rest and have lost to the Giants only once since the 2017 season. It's time for that to change in New York. But even if it doesn't, the hook is too much to risk in this one.
Predictions
Cowboys: Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Giants: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell
Indianapolis Colts (8-8) at Houston Texans (11-5)
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Gagnon: Colts (+10)
The Colts have lost six in a row, but four of those losses have come by six or fewer points. Meanwhile, Houston's last two wins have come by a combined six points.
There could also be the surprise factor with Riley Leonard making his first career start for the Colts. I also wonder if the Texans could phone this one in as the Jaguars inevitably pull away from the Titans to clinch the AFC South.
Moton: Texans (-10)
The Texans will likely monitor the score between the Jaguars and Titans. Houston can win the AFC South with a win and a Jacksonville loss. Though the Jaguars could jump out to an early big lead, the Texans may still have an incentive to hold on to the No. 5 seed.
The top non-division winner in the AFC will play the winner of the Pittsburgh Steelers-Baltimore Ravens game for the AFC North title. Facing either of those mediocre teams is less challenging than going on the road to Denver, New England or Jacksonville. The Texans keep their foot on the gas (no brakes) and throttle the Colts at home.
Predictions
Colts: Gagnon
Texans: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Cleveland Browns (4-12) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)
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Gagnon: Browns (+7.5)
The Browns have a lot of fight in them right now. They nearly took out the Bills in Week 16 and then slayed the Steelers in Week 17. I think they'll be the more inspired team in this spot, especially with Myles Garrett chasing history. They'll at least keep this close.
Sobleski: Bengals (-7.5)
The Bengals offense has been on a roll over the last two weeks, while Joe Burrow got his groove back. Cincinnati averaged 41 points and 418 yards per game during its current two-game win streak.
Meanwhile, the Browns previously lauded defense has been far more inconsistent late in the year, though the group is coming off an excellent outing against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Still, Myles Garrett's quest to set the single-season sack record remains the unit's primary goal, while Cincinnati is doing far more positive things as the regular season nears its end.
Predictions
Browns: Gagnon, Hanford
Bengals: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Green Bay Packers (9-6-1-) at Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
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Davenport: Packers (-6.5)
The Packers are in very real trouble. The defense hasn't been close to the same without Micah Parsons on the field. Quarterback Jordan Love is hurt. Green Bay is probably hoping their most hated rivals win, because the alternative to a trip to Chicago next week is heading to Philly.
Love won't play in Week 18. Neither will running back Josh Jacobs most likely. But this spread smacks of Green Bay not only resting everyone of any import but also rolling over. That's not the momentum they need headed into the postseason—and Matt LaFleur knows it.
Knox: Vikings (+6.5)
I certainly don't feel comfortable favoring the Vikings by this many points in a divisional game—regardless of who is at quarterback. However, I think this game will mean a whole lot more to Minnesota than it does to the Packers, who are locked into the NFC's No. 7 seed. I'd expect Green Bay to sit multiple starters on both sides of the ball and to fall behind late as the Vikings try to end their season on a high note.
Predictions
Packers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Vikings: Knox, Moton
New Orleans Saints (6-10) at Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
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Knox: Falcons (-3)
Do I trust the Falcons to follow up a stunning prime-time win with a stellar performance? I do not. However, I do think that Atlanta can replicate the success it had during its 24-10 win over the Saints back in Week 12. New Orleans has improved since then, but Atlanta is playing better ball, too. I expect another massive game from Bijan Robinson as the Falcons end the year on a four-game winning streak.
O'Donnell: Saints (+3)
The Falcons had their game of the year last week vs. the Rams. Even at the best of times, when all things seem to be humming on both sides of the ball, and Bijan Robinson is the focal point of the offense, it's impossible to trust Atlanta. Tyler Shough and the Saints have won four straight games. Even if the bid to close the year with five consecutive wins falls short, three points is too much to spot the Falcons.
Predictions
Saints: Davenport, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Falcons: Gagnon, Knox, Moton
New York Jets (3-13) at Buffalo Bills (11-5)
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Davenport: Jets (+7)
That this will be the last game at Highmark Stadium (it's still the Ralph to me) is kind of sad, although at least the Bills didn't build another sterile, character-less dome.
Buffalo isn't going to play anyone who has so much as the sniffles, and while the Jets may not be one of the NFL's best teams, they will at least be playing some first-teamers. If the Jets can't cover this spread against the Bills' JV squad, something is wrong.
Gagnon: Bills (-7)
The Jets have lost four straight games by 23-plus points and are coming off quite possibly the worst December in NFL history. And now there should be some stellar energy behind the Bills for their final game at their legendary stadium. There's a risk Buffalo phones this one in because the division title is out of reach, but that might not matter considering the Jets appear to be out of gas.
Predictions
Jets: Davenport
Bills: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Miami Dolphins (7-9) at New England Patriots (13-3)
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Knox: Patriots (-10.5)
New England narrowly won the first time these two teams met, but the Patriots and Dolphins have experienced entirely different trajectories since then. While Miami has benched its starting quarterback for a seventh-round rookie and is playing for next season, New England has a chance—albeit an unlikely one—of earning the AFC's No. 1 seed.
I expect the Patriots to play their starters and to play well while giving Drake Maye one final push toward the MVP award.
O'Donnell: Dolphins (+10.5)
The Pats simply keep doing their thing. This is a big line, though, and one of New England's worst ATS marks of the season is at home (3-4-1). Mike McDaniel's Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in the division this season. Five wins in their last seven games have probably saved McDaniel's job. Even if the win isn't in the cards, more than 10 points is too rich for my blood.
Predictions
Dolphins, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Patriots: Davenport, Hanford, Knox
Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
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Davenport: Chargers (+12.5)
The math for the Broncos is easy: win, and the AFC's No. 1 seed is theirs. Meanwhile, the Chargers will likely rest multiple players, especially if Houston and Jacksonville win before they take the field.
But the Broncos haven't covered this big a spread since Week 8 and have done so just twice all season, and if they get up three scores late, the hook will come for their starters, too. This screams back-door cover, although that sound might be me looking at my picks record this season.
Moton: Broncos (-12.5)
The Broncos have something significant to play for–the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which would give them a first-round bye. Denver has covered this line only twice this season, both at home: against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4 and the Dallas Cowboys in Week 8.
The Broncos won't allow the Chargers, who will start backup quarterback Trey Lance, to hang around in this one with so much at stake. The Broncos win by more than two touchdowns.
Predictions
Chargers: Davenport
Broncos: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Kansas City Chiefs (6-10) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)
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Hanford: Raiders (+5.5)
The Raiders want to lose this game and lock up the No. 1 pick, but I still think this one will be closer than expected with the Chiefs on the road. Kansas City should be looking to send Travis Kelce out with a bang, but I just don't think this team will score enough points with Chris Oladukon at the helm to pull away here. Chiefs win, but only by a field goal.
Moton: Chiefs (-5.5)
Players don't actively tank for draft capital, but Las Vegas' 34-10 loss to the two-win New York Giants raised questions about whether that's the case. The Raiders were an awful football team with All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers and five-time Pro Bowler edge-rusher Maxx Crosby, and they're even worse without them, as we saw last week.
According to Las Vegas Review-Journal's Vincent Bonsignore, backup quarterbacks Kenny Pickett and Aidan O'Connell could play in place of injured Geno Smith for this contest. So even with third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun leading Kansas City's offense, expect the Chiefs to outscore the Raiders by at least a touchdown in what could be star tight end Travis Kelce's final game before retirement.
Predictions
Chiefs: Gagnon, Knox, Moton
Raiders: Davenport, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Washington Commanders (4-12) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
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Moton: Commanders (+7.5)
Commanders head coach Dan Quinn wasn't happy about the Eagles going for a late two-point conversion with the game already out of reach for his team. In the postgame press conference, he said, "If that's how they want to get down, all good. We play them again in two weeks."
Philadelphia may rest some starters, but Washington hasn't forgotten about how the Eagles put an extra cherry on top of their 29-18 win in the last outing. The Commanders win outright or at least stay within a touchdown margin.
Sobleski: Eagles (-7.5)
Philadelphia has a history of bouncing back offensively after a poor outing this season. Jalen Hurts didn't complete a single second-half pass Sunday in a win over the Buffalo Bills. The Eagles already claimed a division title. They can't claim the NFC's top seed. They're basically set from a seeding standpoint with slight movement still possible.
All of this is to say, don't be surprised if Tanner McKee is in the contest and plays better than Hurts did the last time the Eagles took the field, because the backup quarterback is more than capable of doing so.
Predictions
Commanders: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell
Eagles: Knox, Sobleski
Arizona Cardinals (3-13) at Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
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Hanford: Rams (-7.5)
The hook is terrifying here after watching Los Angeles get outplayed by a bad Falcons team on Monday night. However, the Cardinals have lost eight in a row for a reason. The Rams enjoy the comforts of home here as they look to get right before the postseason against a team that's playing for nothing. Rams by double digits.
Moton: Cardinals (+7.5)
Rams head coach Sean McVay told reporters that his starters will play this week, but he didn't specify how much time they'll see in a game that won't change much for them in terms of playoff seeding.
It's hard to believe that Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams and the Rams' eighth-ranked scoring defense will be on the field for most of this game. The Arizona Cardinals probably aren't good enough to beat the Rams' B-team, but Jacoby Brissett has been productive in late‑game situations. Los Angeles wins to snap a two-game skid, but Arizona covers late.
Predictions
Cardinals: Moton
Rams: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Detroit Lions (8-8) at Chicago Bears (11-5)
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Hanford: Bears (-2.5)
I want to pick Detroit here, but it's very hard to trust what we've seen from the Lions offense lately, and I don't see that getting better in the cold Chicago weather. Jared Goff struggled mightily against Minnesota last week, and playing outside in Chicago this time of the year is not the way to remedy that. Bears win by a field goal, sending the Lions out on a low note in a disappointing season.
O'Donnell: Lions (+2.5)
Show me something, Lions. The season is over for them. It's hard to say things could've gone worse for Detroit this year. Show some pride. Play spoiler against a division rival that I still struggle to believe in. Give me the points.
Predictions
Lions: O'Donnell, Sobleski
Bears: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton
Baltimore Ravens (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
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Hanford: Steelers (+3.5)
I think the Ravens win this one by a field goal. This may not be the most exciting chapter in the rivalry between these two teams, as both teams have struggled all season, but this should be a hard-fought, low-scoring matchup as one team looks to clinch a playoff berth.
I trust Baltimore's offense to make more plays than Pittsburgh's attack without DK Metcalf, at the end of the day, to punch their postseason ticket and keep the Steelers out.
Sobleski: Ravens (-3.5)
Since these two teams met in Week 14, the Ravens have been the better team, by beating the Cincinnati Bengals and posting a dominant victory over the Green Bay Packers. Baltimore even had an 11-point fourth-quarter lead against the New England Patriots before letting that one slip away.
Whereas, the Steelers strung together two solid victories against the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions before falling to the Cleveland Browns. The last loss is most important, because wide receiver DK Metcalf began his two-game suspension and Pittsburgh's offense didn't look the same. No vertical element exists in its passing game, which limits the entire scheme.
The Ravens can benefit from this, while the Steelers know exactly what they're going to get with a heavy dose of Derrick Henry.
Predictions
Ravens: Davenport, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Steelers: Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell
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