.jpeg?w=1280 "Texans QB C.J. Stroud (left) and Chargers QB Justin Herbert (right)")
2025 NFL Week 17 Expert Picks
On a short week for multiple NFL teams, you're going to get Bleacher Report's Week 17 picks against the spread a day earlier than usual—consider it an early present for the holiday.
B/R analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell have a tight competition brewing in the last two weeks of the season. Gagnon and Hanford are three games behind Moton for the top spot. Sobleski moved ahead of Knox for fourth place.
This week, one analyst started off with three lone-wolf picks for Thursday's games. He's banking on home underdogs.
As teams lock up playoff spots and compete for top seeds, let's see who chooses the right side in a mix of games with postseason implications, clubs playing for pride and one matchup that will determine which squad takes over sole possession of the No. 1 spot in the 2026 draft.
Check out the standings and breakdowns for Week 17 games below.
ATS Standings
1. Moton: 128-110-2
T-2. Gagnon 125-113-2
T-2. Hanford: 125-113-2
4. Sobleski: 122-116-2
5. Knox: 121-117-2
6. O'Donnell: 117-121-2
7. Davenport: 110-128-2
Lone Wolf Picks: 27-25-2
Lines are from DraftKings as of Tuesday, Dec. 23, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) at Washington Commanders (4-11)
1 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Chargers Cowboys Football")
Gagnon: Commanders (+6.5)
The Cowboys are the stronger, healthier team, but I don't think they have much fight left at this point. Meanwhile, Washington has remained somewhat scrappy the last couple of weeks. The Dallas defense can't stop anybody, and the Cowboys are just 2-5 against the spread as favorites this season. This is just too many points for a divisional road game on very short rest.
Moton: Cowboys (-6.5)
Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention, so they're playing for division pride. Despite their sub-.500 record, the Cowboys still field a potent offense that's fifth in scoring and second in total yards. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are going to torch the Commanders' 26th-ranked pass defense.
Meanwhile, Washington will struggle to counter, as it looks like third-string quarterback Josh Johnson will start in place of backup Marcus Mariota, who's dealing with hand and quad injuries.
Predictions
Cowboys: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Commanders: Gagnon
Detroit Lions (8-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
2 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Steelers Lions Football")
Gagnon: Vikings (+6)
Detroit has won in regulation just once in its last six games, and it's probably too late for the Lions now. Just like with Dallas in Washington, this is a talented but defeated team laying quite a lot of points in a short-rest divisional road game against a feisty opponent that has nothing to lose. Minnesota beat the Lions in Detroit earlier this season and should keep this close at home in pursuit of a fourth consecutive win and cover.
Moton: Lions (-6)
The Detroit Lions will look to avenge a surprising Week 9 home loss to the Vikings and keep their faint playoff hopes alive. Also, the Lions will face undrafted rookie quarterback Max Brosmer. J.J. McCarthy is out with a hand injury.
Let's not get cute here. The Lions have a bad defense, but it won't allow Bromser to move the ball up and down the field. Detroit snaps a two-game skid with a double-digit victory.
Predictions
Lions: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Vikings: Gagnon
Denver Broncos (12-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-9)
3 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Packers Broncos Football")
Gagnon: Chiefs (+12.5)
Yeah, I'm liking these big home dogs on Christmas Day. The Chiefs may be a mess, but I don't think they'll just lie down in this spot. There could also be a surprise element with the mysterious Chris Oladokun at quarterback for Kansas City, while Denver hasn't had much time at all to bounce back from an extremely disappointing Week 16 home loss to Jacksonville. Way too many points here.
Davenport: Broncos (-12.5)
The idea of laying this many points against the Chiefs at Arrowhead would have been laughable not long ago. But Denver just got handled at home and is clinging to the No. 1 seed in the AFC by a thread. The Chiefs will be holding tryouts for their starting quarterback in the parking lot of Slap's BBQ on Christmas Eve. The Chiefs can't move the ball right now. Broncos roll.
Predictions
Broncos: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Chiefs: Gagnon
Houston Texans (10-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)
4 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Chargers Cowboys Football")
Hanford: Chargers (-2.5)
The Chargers are quietly rolling as winners of seven of their last eight games, and they're 4-2-1 against the spread at home this season. The Texans also come in scorching hot with seven straight wins of their own on the back of a dominant and borderline scary defense.
I think this game stays low-scoring as both defenses trade knockout punches, but give me the better QB in Justin Herbert to do just enough to put his team over by a field goal.
Sobleski: Texans (+2.5)
For as well as Justin Herbert is playing, the Chargers still have significant issues along their offensive line. Now is not the time to play the NFL's top-ranked defense, with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter screaming off the edges. Eventually, those two are going to make a play and disrupt Herbert. The quarterback can only do so much when facing constant pressure, and the Texans can take advantage when mistakes occur.
Predictions
Texans: Davenport, Moton, Sobleski
Chargers: Hanford, Knox, Gagnon, O'Donnell
Baltimore Ravens (7-8) at Green Bay Packers (9-5-1)
5 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Bears Packers Football")
Davenport: Ravens (+2.5)
There are two reasons why the Ravens will win this game. The first is that even if Lamar Jackson's ouchie back sidelines him (as Jordan Love's concussion all but certainly will), this analyst trusts Snoop Huntley more than Malik Willis in a high-stakes game. The second is that the stakes are that much higher for the Ravens. Add in a Green Bay defense that missed Micah Parsons badly, and the lone wolf has to howl.
Moton: Packers (-2.5)
As of Wednesday, we have no idea who will be the Green Bay Packers' starting quarterback. With Jordan Love in concussion protocol and Malik Willis battling a shoulder injury, the Packers may turn to third-string signal-caller Clayton Tune in a crucial game.
Tune has one start on his pro resume and hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in the regular season. Willis didn't have a touchdown pass before Green Bay acquired him from the Tennessee Titans, and he's played his best ball with the Packers. Regardless of who starts under center, trust head coach Matt LaFleur and his strong December record over the floundering Ravens, who could be without quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Predictions
Ravens: Davenport
Packers: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
New England Patriots (12-3) at New York Jets (3-12)
6 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Patriots Ravens Football")
Hanford: Jets (+13.5)
The Jets are a disaster, and they'll lose this one, but the Patriots only won the first meeting by 13 and haven't beaten New York by a margin bigger than that since 2021. The Patriots will be motivated as they seek the AFC East crown, but this is just too many points for me to feel confident that they'll cover on the road.
Moton: Patriots (-13.5)
The New York Jets will start undrafted rookie quarterback Brady Cook for a third consecutive outing. In two starts, he's thrown for one touchdown and four interceptions. Gang Green lost by 28 and 23 points in those contests. The inexperienced signal-caller may fare better at home, but the New England Patriots are vying for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and won't take their foot off the gas pedal on the road. The Patriots win by three possessions.
Predictions
Patriots: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Jets: Hanford, O'Donnell
Seattle Seahawks (12-3) at Carolina Panthers (8-7)
7 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Buccaneers Panthers Football")
Hanford: Panthers (+7.5)
I'm very wary of the hook on this one. The Panthers are 5-1 against the spread as a home underdog this season, and they're coming off an important win over the Bucs last week. Nothing that this team does stands out from week to week, but it makes enough plays on both sides of the ball to stay within striking distance.
Sam Darnold got a much-needed signature win last week, and I'm expecting a bit of a letdown here. Seattle wins by less than a touchdown.
Knox: Seahawks (-7.5)
The Panthers are better than most expected them to be, and the Seahawks are coming off an emotional overtime win over the rival Rams. However, Seattle has also had extra time to prepare for this game, and it has the type of top-tier defense that will travel. The Seahawks have only lost once on the road this season, and I think they'll chalk up another convincing away win here.
Predictions
Seahawks: Gagnon, Knox
Panthers: Davenport, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Arizona Cardinals (3-12) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)
8 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Bengals Dolphins Football")
Davenport: Bengals (-7)
Laying a touchdown on a team with no defense—what could go wrong? Nothing. Because the Cardinals haven't won a game since Barack Obama's first term—or at least it seems. Joe Burrow and Co. are going to move the ball at will, and while the Redbirds have been OK offensively of late, they won't be able to keep up.
Sobleski: Cardinals (+7)
Joe Burrow may have gotten his groove back, but Jacoby Brissett is the master of putting up yards and points in garbage time. So, the formula for this game is as follows: Burrow and Co. will score quickly and often. The Bengals defense isn't any good, so the Cardinals will come charging back late only to fall short once again. However, the spread gets covered.
Predictions
Cardinals: Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Bengals: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8) at Miami Dolphins (6-9)
9 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Buccaneers Panthers Football")
Moton: Buccaneers (-5.5)
At some point, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have to snap out of this funk, right? They'll do that against the Miami Dolphins, who will start rookie seventh-round quarterback Quinn Ewers. Defensive-minded head coach Todd Bowles isn't a popular man in Tampa Bay right now, but he should be able to make the game difficult for a signal-caller in his second career start.
The Buccaneers win by a touchdown in hopes that they can use this game as a momentum boost before an NFC South showdown with the Carolina Panthers for the division title.
O'Donnell: Dolphins (+5.5)
I hate rooting against Baker Mayfield, but the Bucs have won only one game since the calendar turned to November. Something is broken in Tampa. The Bucs still have everything to play for, even after ceding the division lead to the Panthers last week.
A win here, and then a win over those Panthers in Week 18, would see them back to the top of the division despite a current 1-6 record over the last seven games—5.5 points is too much for a team that seems to relish close wins. Outside of a 20-point victory over the Saints, the Bucs' other six wins are by an average of about four points.
Predictions
Buccaneers: Davenport, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Dolphins: Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-12)
10 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Steelers Lions Football")
Hanford: Browns (+4.5)
The Steelers are 3-4 against the spread on the road this season and now will be without DK Metcalf as he serves a suspension for an altercation with a fan on Sunday. Add Myles Garrett going for the NFL single-season sack record against their most hated rival, and I expect the Browns to have enough motivation here to keep this one uglier than expected.
I still like the Steelers to win as they look to clinch a playoff berth, but it won't be pretty.
Sobleski: Steelers (-4.5)
Even without the services of DK Metcalf, the Steelers should move the ball with relative ease against the Browns and their recently disappointing defense. The reason behind Cleveland's defensive downturn centers on an inability to stop the run.
Tony Pollard gashed the Browns for 161 yards three weeks ago. The Chicago Bears accumulated 142 rushing yards. The Buffalo Bills' James Cook added 117 and two scores this past weekend. Expect Jaylen Warren and/or Kenneth Gainwell to go off again.
Predictions
Steelers: Davenport, Moton, Sobleski
Browns: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) at Indianapolis Colts (8-7)
11 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Jaguars Broncos Football")
Knox: Jaguars (-7)
Philip Rivers opened up the Colts' offense a bit more in his second start, and Indy should look better offensively than it did in the first meeting with Jacksonville. However, the Jags are starting to find a groove offensively and continue to take away the football defensively. I think that's a dangerous recipe for a Colts team that needs to play near-perfect football to win.
Sobleski: Colts (+7)
At this point, the Colts are playing for nothing but pride (and possibly jobs). An unfortunate set of circumstances led to Indianapolis' late-season collapse. The Jaguars are playing better than any team in the NFL. This isn't an upset pick, per se. Rather, it's a Colts team not giving up and fighting through the last two games because Philip Rivers remains highly competitive. He's also shown he can still play.
Plus, head coach Shane Steichen understands this may be his last chance to prove something before the new ownership group makes a decision about the team's future.
Predictions
Jaguars: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Colts: Sobleski
New Orleans Saints (5-10) at Tennessee Titans (3-12)
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Knox: Saints (-2.5)
The Titans just rolled a Kansas City team that has nothing left to play for in 2025 and looked like it. That should be a much-needed confidence-booster for Tennessee, which has spent most of the year looking like the worst team in football.
While the Saints also have nothing to play for, they haven't looked like it at all during their three-game winning streak. I expect a New Orleans victory, along with a performance by Tyler Shough that draws all sorts of overreactions about the 2025 rookie QB class.
O'Donnell: Titans (+2.5)
Both rookie QBs have something to prove in this one. Both teams are coming off wins. Both clubs are looking to build momentum for the future. I like Tyler Shough enough to say he's earned an opportunity to start for New Orleans in 2026, and Cam Ward is starting to show out just a bit more.
This game will probably be pretty fun, honestly, with turnovers being the key. So, the safe play is tucking these points in the back pocket and expecting a wild outcome.
Predictions
Saints: Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Titans: Davenport, Gagnon, O'Donnell
New York Giants (2-13) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)
13 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Raiders Texans Football")
Knox: Giants (+1.5)
The Raiders put together a respectable effort against the Houston Texans in Week 16, and there's a scenario in which Las Vegas wins its final two games of 2025—both at home—to make retaining Pete Carroll seem like a less-than-silly idea. I just have a feeling that we will see the return of "good' Jaxson Dart this week, as the Giants manage to botch getting the No. 1 pick.
O'Donnell: Raiders (-1.5)
I just can't see the Giants coming out interested enough to keep this game close. As bad as Las Vegas has been this season, and as accustomed as the Giants are to close games, it seems the wheels have fallen off for New York as it looks to the future.
The Giants will struggle to contain Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty, while Jaxson Dart will either try to do too much or simply do nothing at all. In a battle with huge draft implications—something the players themselves couldn't care less about—the Raiders will play their way out of No. 1 overall pick contention in covering fashion.
Predictions
Giants: Hanford, Knox
Raiders: Davenport, Gagnon, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (11-4)
14 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Bills Browns Football")
Gagnon: Eagles (+2.5)
The Bills have merely been surviving during their four-game winning streak. They actually trailed the Steelers at halftime, they trailed the Bengals by double digits in the fourth quarter, they fell behind 21-0 in New England and they cut it extremely close last week in Cleveland.
It doesn't feel very sustainable, and Philly has seemingly found a groove again with consecutive double-digit-point wins. Throw in that Josh Allen has a foot injury just as the Eagles are getting some key players back and this is a no-brainer. Philadelphia wins outright.
O'Donnell: Bills (-2.5)
You may be tired of hearing it, but no team wants that home-field advantage more than the Buffalo Bills, especially with perennial postseason nemesis, the Kansas City Chiefs, completely out of the playoff field this year. Can the Eagles discover their running game against the bad Buffalo run D? Would that be enough to balance the Philly offense? It won't matter.
As good and dangerous as the Eagles' defense is, Josh Allen is coming off a poor performance in Cleveland, but is simply too good and too driven right now to falter with so much on the line. If not this year, when? Bills take this by at least a touchdown.
Predictions
Eagles: Gagnon, Sobleski
Bills: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Chicago Bears (11-4) at San Francisco 49ers (11-4)
15 of 16.jpg?w=684 "49ers Colts Football")
Davenport: 49ers (-2.5)
This is a fascinating matchup between two teams that have consistently punched above their weight for much of the season. But laying less than a field goal, the Niners are the play. The Bears aren't pulling off another miracle comeback against a team whose record is nearly a miracle in itself. Kyle Shanahan won't win Coach of the Year—but weathering this year's many storms may be the best job he's ever done.
O'Donnell: Bears (+2.5)
Let's be clear, I think the 49ers will win this game. With massive NFC No. 1 seed implications on the line, Kyle Shanahan has his team believing they can overcome just about anything. The Bears believe, too. There's a magic to Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson and the feisty Chicago defense that I cannot deny despite my constant reservations about their success this season.
The game will be close, probably with the Bears getting the ball back with the game on the line after a San Francisco score puts them up by two. And that is when Caleb Williams will throw a fateful interception, setting the stage for Seattle vs. San Francisco in Week 18, all the while giving Chicago the cover, nonetheless.
Predictions
Bears: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
49ers: Davenport, Moton
Los Angeles Rams (11-4) at Atlanta Falcons (6-9)
16 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Rams Seahawks Football")
Gagnon: Falcons (+7.5)
Without looking at this line, I had the Rams winning by seven. So really, I'm just taking advantage of the hook here. Atlanta is at least competing, having won back-to-back games. Raheem Morris knows his former team well, and there's no telling how the Rams will respond to a deflating Week 16 loss to Seattle. They're on the road again now, possibly without Davante Adams and Kevin Dotson. This should be a close game.
Hanford: Rams (-7.5)
The Rams need to win out to have a shot at winning the NFC West after botching last week's loss to Seattle. The hook gives me pause here, but I'm expecting L.A. to come out motivated against a Falcons team that has struggled to get out of its own way all season.
Atlanta is under .500 covering the spread at home this season. I don't expect it to protect Kirk Cousins in this one, which will lead to a few mistakes, and the Rams win by 10 to keep that division interesting.
Predictions
Rams: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton
Falcons: Gagnon, O'Donnell, Sobleski
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