Ranking NFL Pretenders Most Likely To Become Playoff Contenders Next Season

A common term heard in NFL circles is that a team is still a "year away" from contending. There's an element of truth to the saying, especially in the modern league where parity reins and a large portion of the league shuffles in and out of the playoffs regularly.

Plenty of teams that fell short this year have real reason to believe better days are ahead in 2026. There are various ways for these squads to improve drastically in the span of an offseason—whether through a rebuilding program developing several key prospects, the draft, getting an injured star back, an organization flush with cap space ready to go on a spending spree, or some combination of these factors.

There's no shortage of instances when a club came up short one year but went on to have a successful campaign the following season. The 1999 St. Louis Rams are arguably the best example, going from a 4-12 bottom-feeder to Super Bowl champions within a season, but there are plenty of recent occurrences too. 

The 2024 Washington Commanders and 2023 Houston Texans both picked near the top of those respective drafts and parlayed solid QB selections into winning seasons and playoff runs.

The 2021 Cincinnati Bengals emerged from the shadow of a 4-11-1 campaign and season-ending injury to then-rookie quarterback Joe Burrow to go 10-7, capture an AFC North title for the first time in five years and make it to the Super Bowl. They remained in the hunt the following campaign, but have now been eliminated from playoff contention in back-to-back disappointing seasons.

So, are the Bengals the best bet to bounce back and reenter the Lombardi Trophy discussion in 2026?

Let's take a look at them and other pretenders who could make a leap this offseason, ranking these hopefuls on their odds of having a successful season and chances to make a Super Bowl run.

2026 salary-cap projections courtesy of Spotrac.

5. New York Giants

AP Photo/Seth Wenig

Big Blue may be down, but this club is not out of the running for a 2026 turnaround. 

Unlike last year when ownership made the head-scratching decision to retain head coach Brian Daboll on the heels of a miserable 3-14 campaign, the Giants will be going into the upcoming offseason with the chance to fully reboot.

The team represents one of the most attractive landing locations for a head coach and should have its pick of the litter when it comes to desirable candidates.

While GM Joe Schoen or his potential successor will need to beef up the offensive line and make a few critical defensive additions at spots like linebacker, the Giants possess three picks that currently fall within the top 102 of the upcoming draft that can be used to address these holes.

They also have an estimated $26 million in available cap space and plenty of options—such as releasing aging veterans like Bobby Okereke and Graham Gano—to free up finances.

Regardless of whom the G-Men choose to fill Daboll's vacated role, the club will be well positioned to find success in that coach's first season.

First-round quarterback Jaxson Dart has flashed immense potential during his rookie campaign and could be the long-term future under center. Injured young stars Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo project to be healthy to start the 2026 campaign, giving New York a fantastic offensive core to craft the rest of the roster around.

To maximize their chances of winning in 2026, the Giants should prioritize bringing in an offensive mastermind who believes in Dart and has a plan to leverage his unique talents.

The Chicago Bears took a similar path this past season when they hired Ben Johnson to work with Caleb Williams. The move has been a resounding success, resulting in the team's first playoff berth in a half-decade and first 10-win campaign since 2018.

Although Dart isn't guaranteed to be elite, he's flashed the upside to be an effective starter in the NFL. If he can avoid taking unnecessary hits and stay on the field consistently while working in an improved system for 2026, he'll be able to lead the G-Men to their first playoff appearance since 2022 and just second since the start of the 2017 campaign.

4. New York Jets

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

The Jets brought in a new regime but found familiar results in 2025. Despite washing their hands of the Aaron Rodgers era and restarting yet again, Gang Green couldn't improve on its much-maligned 2024 performance.

As bad as the Jets have been, head coach Aaron Glenn's team is still set up for future success if it can maximize the $104 million in cap space it has available for free agency and nail some of its many 2026 draft selections.

New York already proved it would be all-in on the future last month when it traded away a pair of Pro Bowlers in Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. The team returned a plethora of premium draft picks for these established stars, bringing general manager Darren Mougey's arsenal of 2026 selections up to 14.

With five of those picks falling within the top 50 if the event was held today, Gang Green could have one of the most transformative offseasons in recent memory.

Regardless of whether New York organically finishes the year at the top of the draft order or puts together a package to acquire No. 1 from one of the handful of teams that don't need a QB and could be picking there, the franchise would be wise to go all-in on Fernando Mendoza.

The Heisman-winning QB already helped turn the Indiana Hoosiers from an afterthought into national championship favorite during his short tenure and could have a similar impact on the long-suffering Jets.

Mendoza is the No. 5 overall prospect and top-ranked QB on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's big board due to a rare blend of football IQ, processing ability, arm talent, sense for pressure and toughness. He's the type of pocket passer New York needs to unlock its offense, one that struggled significantly in 2025 without a star under center.

If Mendoza stays healthy and realizes his NFL potential, it wouldn't be surprising to see him join the likes of C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels—two recent draftees who led their teams to playoff appearances in their first seasons.

3. Washington Commanders

AP Photo/Matt Krohn

The Commanders' nightmarish 2025 season was unexpected, which in itself is a bit of a surprise given the team's consistent ineptitude prior to 2024.

After making a run all the way to the NFC Championship Game last year, Washington managed to keep most of the band together—including offensive coordinator and popular head coaching candidate Kliff Kingsbury—and went all-in to bolster the supporting cast around Jayden Daniels.

After picking up established talent like Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil to augment the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, there was every reason to believe this team would build upon its 12-5 showing the prior season. Instead, Washington was eliminated from contention in Week 14 and now has nothing to look forward to but the upcoming offseason.

Although things ultimately went off the rails in the nation's capital due to injuries and a stark regression on defense, it isn't time for fans to panic.

Washington is only two years removed from a 4-13 campaign and a string of poor seasons that saw the club reach the playoffs just once between 2016 and 2023, but it's unlikely the Commanders will stay down in the dumps for long.

Health will return to Daniels, who missed most of his sophomore campaign with knee, hamstring and elbow issues. The defense also has a clear path to improvement (via linebacker and edge pickups with some of the $94 million the team has at its disposal) and should make strides in 2026 after falling from an average unit to one of the worst in the league this year.

While most teams wouldn't opt to run it back after losing a double-digit number of games, the Commanders could choose that path and still find success as long as the injury bug doesn't bite and the defense gets a couple upgrades.

2. Dallas Cowboys

AP Photo/Julio Cortez

The Cowboys' hopes of getting a fast start under new head coach Brian Schottenheimer went up in flames this season.

Dallas collapsed defensively in the early portion of the campaign and ultimately doomed its chances to significantly improve on the 7-10 record it posted during Mike McCarthy's final season.

It's a valid concern that the Cowboys failed to reach the playoffs for the second consecutive year despite having a healthy Dak Prescott in 2025. The veteran quarterback hasn't been a problem—he's overseeing a unit that ranks No. 2 in both total and passing offense and No. 5 in scoring—by any means, but one of his best years yet has been squandered by defensive ineptitude.

Heading into Week 17, Dallas ranks No. 30 in total defense and No. 31 in scoring defense. Those are unacceptable marks for a championship hopeful and the main reason this organization is out of contention before Christmas.

Dealing away Micah Parsons proved to be an insurmountable short-term loss, but the Cowboys still have a chance to win the trade long-term by making the most of the picks they received from the Green Bay Packers.

Dallas will be getting an extra Day 1 pick that could fall in the late-middle portion of the round, a spot it could use to address key defensive holes at edge-rusher and safety.

While Prescott isn't getting any younger, the 32-year-old returned from a significant injury to have a Pro Bowl-tier campaign and should still have plenty of tread left on his tires. With the quarterback position solidified and defensive woes that can be fixed quickly, the Cowboys are a realistic choice to go on a deep run in 2026.

1. Cincinnati Bengals

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

It's hard to believe it's been two years since the Bengals were last seen in the NFL playoffs.

The team represented the AFC in the Super Bowl and came up just short against an elite Los Angeles Rams squad to end the 2021 campaign and pushed the eventual champion Kansas City Chiefs to the brink in the following season's AFC Championship Game.

An abysmal defense cost Cincy a chance to three-peat as AFC North champs last season, while a toe injury that kept Joe Burrow out for nine games ultimately doomed the squad's chances in 2025.

As bad as the Bengals' luck has been, they will have the offensive firepower to capture the franchise's first Lombardi Trophy next year. The team ranked No. 1 in passing in 2024 and will have the upside to reach those heights again in 2026 after locking down the core of Burrow and star wideouts Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on long-term extensions.

Although Cincy can't control Burrow's penchant for injury—he's missed significant time in three of his first six seasons—the team could put itself in far better position to capitalize on a healthy season from the signal-caller by making major defensive improvements.

With seven draft picks—including a potential top-10 selection on Day 1—and nearly $110 million in cap space (the fourth-most in the league) at the front office's disposal this offseason, the Bengals must improve a defense that ranks dead-last in both yards and points allowed this season.

It's a tall task, but a few shrewd moves could get this team to at least league-average in both categories. If the Bengals manage to make enough upgrades to get a top-10 defense while keeping Burrow healthy, there's every reason to think they'll be a Super Bowl favorite come this time next year.