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Week 16 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Advice for Unfavorable Fantasy Football Matchups
If your fantasy team is still alive in Week 16, congratulations. In many season-long leagues, the playoffs are in full swing and the championship is right around the corner.
Several playoff-caliber games will take place over the next three days—yes, Saturday games have returned this week—which will leave some fantasy stars with unfavorable matchups.
Here, you'll find a look at some of the most difficult matchups and situations of Week 16, along with start/sit advice based on past performances, projected roles, and any other player-specific factors.
All picks and analysis are based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring.
Quarterback
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Start: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
The Cleveland Browns have had one of the league's top defenses for most of the season. Though the unit has slipped a bit over the last couple of weeks, Cleveland has still only surrendered the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
However, that's no reason to consider sitting Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen, who leads all quarterbacks with an average of 24.6 fantasy points per game this season.
The Browns have a stout pass rush led by Myles Garrett, but their secondary has holes, and their run defense took a big hit when Maliek Collins went down for the year. Allen's dual-threat ability should carry him through a tough matchup and close to his season average.
Sit: Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns
Managers should avoid the other quarterback in this matchup, Browns rookie Shedeur Sanders.
The Colorado product looked like he might be a viable playoff streamer a couple of weeks ago, when he tallied 34.5 fantasy points against the Tennessee Titans. However, Sanders had a terrible outing against the Chicago Bears last week and may not fare much better against Buffalo.
The Bills' defense has its issues but has only surrendered the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Running Back
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Start: Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
The Denver Broncos might have the best overall defense in the entire NFL this season, which might concern Travis Etienne Jr. managers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars standout has averaged 15.8 fantasy points this season but has been provided a few disappointing stat lines. He's yielded fewer than 10 fantasy points four times, though only once since Week 8.
Denver has surrendered the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. However, this should be a close contest that sees Etienne involved in the passing game and allows him to have a solid PPR floor.
Sit: Kyle Monangai, Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears rookie Kyle Monangai has had his fair share of high spots this season, but he's still behind starter D'Andre Swift. Both backs feasted against the Philadelphia Eagles during a Thanksgiving romp, but Monangai had fewer than nine points in each of the past two weeks.
Monangai had 8.7 fantasy points against the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago and will face the Packers again on Saturday night. Green Bay's defense won't be the same with Micah Parsons out for the year, but Green Bay still features quite a few run stoppers.
The Packers have surrendered the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Swift may have a respectable game, but it'll be hard to trust Monangai.
Wide Receiver
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Start: George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys
Managers aren't likely to sit star Dallas Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb in any matchup. They should look to sit teammate George Pickens this week, either.
Now, there are reasons to be leery of Pickens. He's underwhelmed over the past two weeks, falling short of nine fantasy points in each contest. He's also set to face a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has surrendered fewer fantasy points to opposing receivers than any other team.
However, the Cowboys have to get Pickens rolling again if they hope to get back in the win column. Don't be surprised if he sees double the six targets he received in Week 15 and gets back to double-digit fantasy production.
Sit: Darius Slayton, New York Giants
New York Giants receiver Darius Slayton has been a serviceable streamer at times this season but should not be trusted in a pivotal playoff week against a good secondary.
Slayton tallied just 9.3 fantasy points last week against a bad Washington Commanders defense. This week, he'll face a Minnesota Vikings defense that has surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers.
Slayton, who has been targeted fewer than five times in three of his last four games, isn't likely to see the target share needed to navigate this unfavorable matchup.
Tight End
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Start: Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns
Managers can't trust Sanders this week, but they can trust rookie Browns tight end Harold Fannin Jr. based on target share alone.
Fellow tight end David Njoku suffered a knee injury in Week 14 and appears poised to miss his second straight game because of it. Fannin, meanwhile, has established himself as one of Sanders' favorite targets.
Fanning has topped 11 fantasy points in three straight games and has seen 25 targets over his last two. No team has surrendered fewer fantasy points to opposing tight ends than Buffalo, but Fannin's PPR floor is too high to ignore.
Sit: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Sunday night's game between the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens will bring some shootout potential. However, managers should shy away from Hunter Henry unless they have no better options.
Henry has had a few good outings this season, but there have also been a few times where he's practically disappeared from New England's offense. He's averaged 9.9 fantasy points per game, had just 2.8 points in Week 15, and faces a stiff test in Week 16.
The Ravens have surrendered the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
*Fantasy scoring information from FantasyPros.
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