Is Arch Manning the Favorite to Go No. 1 in 2027 NFL Draft?

On Monday, news broke that Texas quarterback and presumed future first-round NFL draft pick Arch Manning will return to college for the 2026 season.

"Arch is playing football at Texas next year," his father, Cooper Manning, wrote in his text message to ESPN's Dave Wilson (h/t ESPN's Andrea Adelson).

While Manning's decision will remove a promising QB prospect from the 2026 NFL draft class—he could have declared as a redshirt sophomore—it wasn't entirely surprising.

The 21-year-old has only been a full-time starter for one season, and his up-and-down campaign ended with Texas falling just short of the College Football Playoff (CFP).

The Longhorns will face Michigan in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl on New Year's Eve.

Another year with Texas will potentially give Manning a chance to chase a national championship with his college teammates. It will also give him the opportunity to improve his game and his NFL resume.

Manning likely would have been a first-round pick this year. The question now becomes whether he's destined to be the first overall pick in 2027.

Returning to School Can Boost Manning as an NFL Prospect

Let's be honest. Much of the hype surrounding Manning to this point has been based on his surname. His grandfather, Archie Manning, was an NFL Pro Bowler. His uncles, Peyton and Eli Manning, were Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks with lengthy, Hall of Fame-caliber careers.

Peyton was inducted in 2021, while Eli is in his second year as a semifinalist.

Cooper Manning was a star high school receiver who committed to Mississippi before withdrawing from football due to spinal stenosis. Football, figuratively, runs in Arch Manning's blood.

As an NFL prospect, though, he isn't a blue-chip prospect just yet. He had bright moments during his first year as a starter, including a big upset win over Texas A&M and more than a few highlight-reel throws.

He also flashed the athleticism and scrambling ability that would be more closely associated with his grandfather than with either Peyton or Eli.

There's a reason why Manning was the nation's top-ranked recruit in 2023, and his name is only part of the equation.

However, he also struggled with accuracy, ball placement and decision-making at times. That's why he most likely wouldn't have been the top overall pick in April.

Manning's completion rate, for example, was more than 10 percent lower than that of Indiana quarterback and newly-crowned Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza.

Mendoza is the top-ranked QB prospect on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's 2026 draft board. Manning was the fourth-ranked quarterback and the 44th overall prospect before he officially decided to forego the 2026 draft.

While Manning's ceiling is clearly high, he's an unpolished prospect right now. Damian Parson of the B/R Scouting Department compared him with current Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy in his 2026 scouting report.

"Manning tends to miss easy, or layup throws, too often," Parson wrote. "His footwork is still a work in progress, leading to poorly placed passes and too many landing in the dirt or at his target's feet."

Another year under Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian and quarterbacks coach A.J. Milwee—who was an Alabama offensive assistant during Mac Jones' 4,500-yard season in 2020—will give Manning an opportunity to work on his mechanics, pocket awareness and accuracy.

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Manning showed incremental improvement in these areas during the 2025 season, so there's every reason to believe he'll be a much more polished prospect a year from now.

"He's a young man who's gotten better as the season's gone on, and not only physically, but mentally, maturity-wise," Sarkisian said, per Adelson. "I would think he's going to want another year of that growth to put himself in position for hopefully a long career in the NFL."

Another season will also give Manning a chance to play in more big-time games—and to put some of his poor 2025 performances in the rear view. Getting Texas into the CFP certainly wouldn't hurt his draft stock.

But There Will Be Competition for That Top Spot

If Manning looks and plays more like a pro-ready prospect next season, he'll be in the conversation for the No. 1 overall pick. However, he won't be the only collegiate star vying for the top spot.

There's no guarantee Manning will even be the top quarterback in the 2027 class. The B/R Scouting Department ranked him behind Mendoza, Oregon's Dante Moore, and Alabama's Ty Simpson for 2026, and there's no guarantee they all declare for the NFL.

"There's not a decision yet. I don't know," Moore said, per Cory Pappas of SI.com.

Ohio State's Julian Sayin, who is also in his first season as a full-time starter, would also likely be ahead of Manning at this point, and it's not hard to envision the Buckeyes star being next year's top quarterback prospect.

Sayin has completed 78.4 percent of his passes this season (compared to Manning's 61.4 percent), while throwing for 3,323 yards, 31 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. Unlike the 6'4", 219-pound Manning, Sayin (6'1") doesn't possess archetypal size, but he has flashed NFL-caliber throws just like his Texas counterpart.

Dylan Raiola could also make a case for being next year's top QB prospect, depending on how things unfold for him in the coming months. The 6'3" signal-caller possesses an NFL-ready toolkit and started 22 games at Nebraska before suffering a broken right fibula in November.

Raiola also plans to enter the transfer portal in January, according to The Athletic's Mitch Sherman. His recovery and his next collegiate stop could impact the 2027 QB class significantly.

Of course, there's also no guarantee any quarterback will go first overall. Though a signal-caller has gone first in seven of the last eight drafts, a handful of non-QB prospects appear worthy of being the first player off the board in roughly 16 months.

Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, for example, might challenge to be the top pick this year if he were draft-eligible. South Carolina edge-defender Dylan Stewart, meanwhile, looks like the sort of disruptive defender who could be a perennial Pro Bowler sooner than later.

It's worth noting the last three non-quarterbacks to go first overall—Jadeveon Clowney, Myles Garrett and Travon Walker—were edge-defenders.

If a team that already has a quarterback in place "earns" the top selection in 2027, it will face a difficult decision. Will it flip the No. 1 pick to a QB-needy team for a big bag of draft capital or simply take a "can't-miss" player like Smith or Stewart?

That would be a relevant question for Manning, even if he was the sure-fire top quarterback in the 2027 class, which, right now, he isn't.

Returning to College Was the Right Decision for Manning

The short answer is that, no, Manning shouldn't be considered the favorite to go No. 1 overall in 2027—at least not yet. Returning to school for another year, though, absolutely was the right choice for him.

The 2026 quarterback class isn't viewed as a particularly strong one.

"I don't love any of (the quarterbacks) right now," an unnamed NFL executive told The Athletic's Jeff Howe in November. "We're trying to grasp onto somebody because there isn't anybody, and it's such a flavor of the week. Good luck right now."

If Manning had been the fourth-best QB prospect in a relatively underwhelming group, he couldn't be considered the best of what may be a more impressive 2027 class. He certainly can't be considered a better prospect than players such as Smith, Stewart, Texas edge-rusher Colin Simmons and Auburn receiver Cam Coleman.

The good news is Manning will have another season and a full calendar year to change the narrative. If he continues to flush out his weaknesses, honing his strengths and showing better consistency on a down-to-down basis, he can establish himself as the sort of "sure-thing" prospect who will be hard to pass over at the top of the draft.

The traits are there, and the polish can catch up. And Manning will be more ready for the high expectations that usually come with being a top draft choice tasked with turning around a bad franchise than anyone. He's been dealing with lofty expectations his entire life because of his last name.